Coffee Prices Surge as Tight Nearby Supply Overshadows Brazil’s Export Recovery (18 August 2026)
New York arabica futures recorded their strongest advance in several weeks on Tuesday as declining certified stocks, restricted nearby availability and technical buying outweighed evidence of a substantial recovery in Brazilian coffee exports.
The September 2026 arabica contract settled at 363.40 cents per pound, gaining 18.30 cents, or 5.3%. December, which is becoming the principal market reference as liquidity moves away from September, advanced 14.55 cents, or 4.6%, to close at 332.45 cents per pound.
The rally was particularly notable because the session began under pressure. December opened at 317.50 cents and fell to 315.05 cents before buying accelerated. The contract subsequently climbed to an intraday high of 333.25 cents, producing a trading range of 18.20 cents per pound. Approximately 45,000 December lots changed hands during the session.
London robusta futures also strengthened. September rose by $85 to $3,755 per tonne, while November gained $95 to settle at $3,739 per tonne.
Nearby availability remains the market’s main concern
The structure of the New York market continues to indicate that coffee available for immediate delivery is commanding a substantial premium.
September finished 30.95 cents per pound above December. Part of this difference reflects declining liquidity and position adjustments ahead of the September contract’s expiry, but the size of the premium also points to strong demand for nearby coffee.
The same pattern is visible further along the futures curve, with shorter-dated contracts outperforming more distant maturities. The market is therefore distinguishing between coffee that may become available later in the season and coffee that can be delivered into the commercial system immediately.
ICE-certified arabica stocks fell by another 2,126 bags to 229,214 bags. This marked the 39th consecutive session in which certified inventory declined and brought stocks to their lowest level in more than two and a half years.
The continued drawdown has become one of the clearest sources of support for nearby prices. Reports of limited commercial inventories in parts of Europe have reinforced the concern, leaving the market more vulnerable to transportation delays, port disruption and other logistical problems.
Stronger exports from producing countries do not necessarily resolve this shortage immediately. Coffee leaving Brazil, Vietnam or Central America still requires several weeks to reach consuming markets. It must then be unloaded, cleared, financed, graded and moved to the required commercial location.
Consequently, rising origin shipments can coexist with tight destination inventories, particularly when existing stock buffers are already low.
Brazilian shipments accelerate during August
The rally took place despite clear signs that Brazil’s export programme is gathering momentum.
According to Cecafé, Brazilian coffee shipments had reached approximately 1.416 million bags by August 18, an increase of 15.5% on the council’s comparative measure. The average shipment rate was about 78,700 bags per calendar day.
The total included approximately:
- 894,000 bags of arabica coffee
- 405,000 bags of robusta coffee
- 112,000 bags of soluble coffee
Requests for certificates of origin reached approximately 1.509 million bags. Although that figure was down 9.3% on the relevant comparison, it still indicates a substantial volume of coffee progressing through the export system.
The August tally represents a marked acceleration from the 1.156 million bags recorded by Cecafé as of August 13. During those five days, reported shipments increased by approximately 260,000 bags, with robusta and soluble coffee accounting for a meaningful share of the additional volume.
Separate data from Brazil’s Foreign Trade Secretariat also showed green coffee exports rising strongly. Through the second week of August, shipments were approximately 48.5% higher than in the corresponding period of 2025. Exported volume reached around 101,000 tonnes, equivalent to an average of 10,100 tonnes per working day.
This recovery follows a weaker July, when Brazilian coffee exports declined by about 5% year on year. Rain-related harvest delays, drying difficulties and slower movement of newly collected coffee contributed to the softer July performance.
August figures suggest that part of this delayed volume is now entering the export pipeline. Nevertheless, the coffee currently being shipped will not reach consuming markets immediately, and much of it may already be committed against existing contracts.
The market has therefore treated the improvement as a future source of relief rather than a solution to the current shortage of readily deliverable coffee.
Harvest progress has not eliminated quality concerns
Brazil’s harvest is well advanced in several important producing regions. In the area covered by Expocacer in the Cerrado Mineiro, the removal of coffee from trees was estimated to be approximately 81% complete.
Harvest progress normally improves physical availability, but irregular rainfall has complicated the collection and post-harvest process in parts of the country.
StoneX reported that rainfall since June had been above average across a significant portion of Brazil’s coffee belt, despite this normally being one of the drier periods of the year. In some parts of southern Minas Gerais, rainfall accumulated during a single week was comparable to or greater than the historical total for the entire month of July.
For the crop currently being collected, excessive moisture can slow drying, increase fermentation risk and reduce the consistency of finished lots. This may limit the volume of higher-quality coffee suitable for particular export markets, even when total production and shipment figures appear adequate.
The weather pattern has also attracted attention because it may affect the condition of trees ahead of the next crop. The direct influence of El Niño has so far been described as limited, but changes in rainfall distribution could increase crop vulnerability later in the season.
Brazil’s domestic physical market remained relatively slow on Tuesday, despite the sharp rise in New York. Indicative prices for quality coffee in southern Minas Gerais held near R$2,010 per 60-kilogram bag. The limited response suggests that producers and buyers are still assessing whether the futures rally can be sustained.
Robusta shipments provide additional export support
Robusta is playing an increasingly important role in Brazil’s August export performance.
Cecafé reported more than 405,000 bags shipped by August 18, compared with approximately 278,000 bags five days earlier. This implies that close to 127,000 bags of robusta were added to the shipment total between August 14 and August 18.
Industry indications point to a much stronger robusta programme than in July, although the final monthly result will depend on the pace of execution during the second half of August.
Brazil’s growing robusta availability is important for the international market because it provides an alternative source of supply for roasters, soluble coffee manufacturers and buyers that would otherwise depend more heavily on Vietnam.
Even so, London futures strengthened alongside New York. The move indicates that the market remains focused on the timing and location of supply rather than solely on projected export volumes.
Soluble coffee exports continue to recover
Brazil’s soluble coffee industry is also recording stronger shipment volumes.
Exports reached 8,161 tonnes in July, equivalent to approximately 353,800 bags in green-coffee terms. This represented an increase of 20% from July 2025.
Between January and July, Brazil exported around 57,400 tonnes of soluble coffee, equivalent to approximately 2.49 million bags. The total was 10.9% higher than the 51,700 tonnes shipped during the same period of 2025.
Export revenue nevertheless declined by 2.5% to approximately US$663.5 million. This divergence between higher volume and lower revenue reflects the difference between the exceptional price environment of 2025 and the comparatively lower values received during parts of 2026.
The United States remained the largest individual market for Brazilian soluble coffee, purchasing around 8,400 tonnes during the first seven months of the year. This was 12% below the corresponding 2025 volume, although July shipments to the country increased by 9.5% year on year to approximately 1,300 tonnes.
Demand from the European Union strengthened more visibly. Brazilian soluble coffee shipments to the bloc increased by 51.4% between May and the end of July, with Poland, Estonia and the Netherlands among the leading destinations.
Brazil also expanded sales to countries that have their own established coffee-processing industries, including Colombia, Indonesia, Mexico and Vietnam. This suggests that Brazilian companies are becoming more competitive not only as suppliers of finished soluble products but also as providers of intermediate coffee materials.
Domestic consumption followed the same direction. Brazilians consumed an estimated 17,300 tonnes of soluble coffee between January and July, an increase of 14.4% year on year. Premium products, decaffeinated formats, organic options and ready-to-drink beverages have helped broaden the category’s consumer base.
Honduras adds to the improvement in origin supply
Supply indicators outside Brazil are also becoming more constructive.
Honduras has exported approximately 7.18 million 46-kilogram bags during the current harvest, already surpassing the 6.14 million bags shipped during the previous cycle.
The country expects exports to reach around 7.25 million 46-kilogram bags by the official end of the harvest on September 30. These figures should not be compared directly with the standard 60-kilogram bags commonly used in international coffee statistics, but they still represent a substantial improvement in Honduran export performance.
Coffee shipments have generated an estimated US$2.25 billion in foreign-exchange revenue, with the final figure potentially approaching US$2.35 billion by the end of the season.
The Honduran results reinforce the broader picture of improving origin exports. High prices have encouraged producers and exporters to move coffee, while stronger volumes are generating significant revenue for producing economies.
However, as with Brazil, the improvement has not yet translated into a meaningful rebuilding of immediately available stocks in the principal consuming markets.