Coffee retreats as selling pressure returns, while Colombia damage and Brazil weather keep supply risks in focus (19 August 2026)
Coffee futures finished Wednesday under renewed selling pressure, reversing part of the strength seen earlier in the week. Arabica recorded the more pronounced decline, while robusta closed only slightly lower after both markets failed to hold intraday gains.
The session was dominated by technical positioning rather than a major change in the fundamental outlook. Traders continued to adjust exposure along the futures curve, while attention remained divided between improving Brazilian export activity, uncertainty surrounding the Colombian crop following this week's earthquake, and the arrival of another cold air mass in Brazil.
On ICE Futures US, December arabica settled at 328.20 cents per pound, down 425 points, or approximately 1.28%. The contract moved through a wide range, trading as high as 337.15 cents before falling to 323.20 cents later in the session.
The market initially attempted to recover after opening at 330.65 cents, but buying momentum faded above 335 cents. Once the advance stalled, selling intensified and December moved sharply lower during the second part of the session.
The price action reinforced the importance of the 330-cent area. After recently trading above that level, the return below it encouraged additional speculative liquidation and short-term repositioning.
Trading activity remained substantial. Around 41,000 lots changed hands across the arabica market during the session as the transition away from the September contract continued.
September arabica, now approaching expiration and carrying limited remaining liquidity, closed 390 points lower at 359.50 cents per pound, after trading between 355.00 and 369.20 cents.
Open interest is increasingly concentrated in December and March, confirming that the market is moving further into the next part of the futures curve.
London robusta holds up better
Robusta futures in London also declined, although the move was considerably smaller.
November robusta settled at $3,728 per tonne, down $11, equivalent to approximately 0.29%. The contract opened near $3,729, advanced to an intraday high of $3,766, and subsequently fell to $3,672 before recovering part of the losses into the close.
September declined by $37 to $3,718 per tonne.
The September-November spread consequently finished close to $10, with the nearby contract trading at a discount to November.
Position migration remains an important feature of the London market. September open interest has fallen to slightly above 14,000 contracts, while November carries approximately 50,500 lots and January around 19,000.
Trading volume also reflected the shift. Approximately 6,150 September contracts changed hands compared with about 13,570 contracts in November.
The relatively resilient performance of robusta reflects continuing uncertainty over physical availability. One of the central questions facing the market is how much Vietnamese coffee will reach international buyers during the coming crop cycle.
Expectations for stronger Vietnamese availability could weigh on prices if production and exports recover significantly. However, weather conditions across Asian producing regions remain an important variable and could still alter production expectations.
Brazil exports accelerate
Brazilian shipment data provide a more constructive signal for global coffee availability.
According to Cecafé, Brazil had shipped approximately 1.53 million bags during August through August 19, representing an increase of 13.9% compared with the corresponding period.
The total included approximately:
- 953,000 bags of arabica
- 443,000 bags of robusta
- 137,000 bags of soluble coffee
The pace suggests that exports at the beginning of the 2026/27 season are running ahead of last year.
However, the improvement in shipments does not necessarily indicate unrestricted nearby supply.
Rainfall during June and July slowed harvesting and drying operations in important arabica-producing areas of Minas Gerais and São Paulo. The interruptions delayed the preparation of coffee for export and also generated concerns over bean and cup quality.
This distinction is important. Brazil may have a large crop available during the season, but the timing at which export-quality coffee reaches warehouses and ports can still affect nearby physical availability.
Cecafé's certificate-of-origin data also offer a slightly more cautious signal. Requests covering August shipments totaled approximately 1.64 million bags, around 7.7% below the comparable level.
The combination suggests that shipments are currently running strongly while the pipeline for subsequent exports deserves continued monitoring.
In Brazil's domestic physical market, activity remained limited. Sellers showed little urgency to negotiate, with good-quality coffee in southern Minas Gerais estimated at around R$1,980 per 60-kilogram bag.
The appreciation of the Brazilian real against the US dollar also failed to generate a meaningful reaction in futures during Wednesday's session.
Colombian earthquake introduces a new Q4 risk
While Wednesday's futures decline was primarily technical, developments in Colombia could become fundamentally important later in the year.
The earthquake that affected several Colombian coffee regions caused widespread damage to rural communities and agricultural infrastructure across Valle del Cauca, Risaralda, Caldas, Quindío, Antioquia and Chocó.
The National Federation of Coffee Growers is conducting assessments across affected areas.
Of roughly 10,400 coffee-growing families contacted so far, around 8,000 reported damage to their homes, while approximately 700 homes were completely destroyed.
The immediate concern for the coffee market is not current export availability but the condition of infrastructure required during the upcoming harvest.
Damage is being evaluated at processing installations, drying facilities, rural roads, water systems and other infrastructure that supports the movement of coffee from farms into the commercial supply chain.
For the moment, Colombia continues to meet export obligations. The port of Buenaventura has resumed operations following inspections, while Cartagena and Santa Marta remain operational.
The larger risk lies several months ahead.
October through December are critical harvest months for Colombia. If damaged processing and drying capacity is not repaired before the main crop accelerates, logistical bottlenecks could emerge precisely when larger volumes need to move through the system.
This creates an asymmetric supply risk. The earthquake is unlikely to remove large quantities of coffee from today's export market, but it could disrupt the conversion of harvested cherries into exportable coffee later in the year.
That makes the situation important to monitor rather than an immediate justification for a major change in production estimates.
Colombia entered this period from a relatively strong production base. Federation figures show that output reached approximately 13.7 million 60-kilogram bags in 2025, with productivity estimated at 21.03 bags per hectare.
Exports reached about 13.1 million bags, while the value of coffee exports approached $6.5 billion.
The strength of the Colombian sector therefore provides some resilience, but the scale of infrastructure damage means that developments during the reconstruction period could become increasingly relevant to the fourth-quarter supply outlook.
Another Brazilian cold front enters the risk calendar
Weather is also returning to the market's attention in Brazil.
A strong mass of cold air is forecast to move into southern and central-southern Brazil over the coming days after a period dominated by warmer conditions.
A low-pressure system developing between Uruguay and Rio Grande do Sul is expected to help push a cold front northward, producing a significant temperature decline across parts of southern Brazil and São Paulo state.
Current forecasts indicate that southern and eastern São Paulo should experience the greater temperature change. Temperatures in the city of São Paulo could fall toward 10°C to 11°C, although cloud cover and rainfall may prevent more extreme cooling.
For coffee, the relevant issue is not the headline temperature in major cities but minimum temperatures across producing areas.
At this stage, there is no clear indication of a widespread damaging frost event across the principal arabica belt. Nevertheless, the cold episode deserves monitoring because the market remains highly sensitive to frost headlines after the recent period of weather uncertainty.
A forecast shift toward lower temperatures in coffee-growing areas could quickly restore a weather premium.
External markets provide little direction
The broader macro environment offered limited guidance.
US equities advanced, while several other soft commodities, including cocoa, sugar, cotton and orange juice, traded higher. Coffee moved in the opposite direction.
The geopolitical backdrop also remained largely unchanged. Markets continue to monitor developments involving Iran, the United States and the Strait of Hormuz, but Wednesday brought no decisive change capable of materially altering the coffee outlook.
For coffee, any disruption to maritime traffic would be more relevant to robusta supply chains because of the importance of Asian origins and the longer logistical routes connecting producing countries with European consumers.
For now, however, the issue remains a potential logistical risk rather than an active constraint on availability.
ICE inventories remain extremely low
Certified arabica inventories on ICE Futures US were unchanged at approximately 229,214 bags.
Although stocks were stable on the day, the absolute level remains an important structural feature of the market.
Low certified inventories reduce the buffer available to the exchange and can amplify price sensitivity whenever concerns emerge over Brazilian or Colombian availability.
The market is therefore balancing two opposing forces.
Brazilian exports are increasing, which supports expectations for improved physical availability, while exchange inventories remain limited and weather and infrastructure risks continue to prevent the supply outlook from becoming comfortable.