Daily Cocoa Market Report (23 March 2026): Cocoa Extends Losses as Liquidation Continues Despite Supply Risks

• Ivory Coast grindings rose +1.1% y/y in February
• Cocoa arrivals reached 1.392m tons as of Mar 22,
• Weather conditions remain suboptimal
• Quality concerns emerging
• Mid-crop estimate currently around 400,000 tons, but highly sensitive to near-term weather developments

Cocoa futures extended losses into 23-Mar, with both New York and London markets posting a further leg lower following the sharp decline seen on 20-Mar. Prices fell in a broadly parallel fashion across the curve, with New York down roughly -2.0% to -2.3% and London -1.7% to -1.9%, reflecting continued systematic selling pressure. The structure of the move remains directional, with limited evidence of curve reshaping or spread-driven dislocations.

Fundamental signals remain mixed, with demand showing modest resilience while supply-side concerns persist. In Ivory Coast, cocoa grindings rose 1.1% year-on-year in February to 53,058 metric tons, indicating stable processing demand despite elevated price levels. However, cumulative grind for the 2025/26 season remains down 5.9%, suggesting that demand recovery is still partial and uneven.

Ivory Coast Cocoa Grind Rises Slightly in February Despite Seasonal Decline

Ivory Coast’s cocoa processing activity recorded a modest increase in February, with total grind volumes rising 1.1% year-on-year, according to data released by the national exporters’ association. Processors handled approximately 53,058 metric tons of cocoa beans during the month. Despite the annual increase, cumulative grind volumes for

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On the supply side, arrivals data continues to reflect a softer flow. Ivory Coast cocoa arrivals reached 1.392 million metric tons as of March 22, marking a 2.5% decline year-on-year. While weekly arrivals showed some recovery, the overall pace remains below last season, reinforcing the narrative of tighter underlying supply.

Ivory Coast Cocoa Arrivals Decline 2.5% as of March 22

Cocoa arrivals at ports in Ivory Coast, the world’s leading cocoa producer, reached approximately 1.392 million metric tons between October 1 and March 22 of the 2025/26 season, according to exporters’ estimates released Monday. This marks a 2.5% decrease compared to the same period in the

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Weather conditions remain a key variable for the mid-crop outlook. Reports indicate insufficient rainfall across most cocoa-growing regions, with precipitation levels below the five-year average. Farmers have highlighted the need for improved rainfall in April to support pod development and sustain yields. Current conditions, characterized by heat and limited soil moisture, could constrain the potential of the mid-crop if not alleviated. According to industry commentary from Ousmane Attai Ouedraogo there are emerging issues around bean quality.

Satellite and forecast data from Maxar suggest isolated to scattered showers over the weekend, with an increased probability of rainfall later in the week. However, rainfall distribution remains uneven, and localized deficits persist in several regions. Market attention is now firmly on April weather patterns, which are considered critical for determining mid-crop size and quality.

Ivory Coast Cocoa Farmers Call for More Rain to Support Mid-Crop Development

Source: Reuters Farmers across Ivory Coast have reported insufficient rainfall in key cocoa-growing regions, raising concerns about the development of the upcoming mid-crop. According to growers, additional precipitation will be critical in the coming weeks to improve soil moisture and support yields. The country is currently transitioning out of its

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Cocoa Weather

Cocoa market analysis with zero sugar-coating.

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Futures Performance

ICE New York Cocoa (CC)

Cocoa futures extended losses between 20-Mar and 23-Mar, with both ICE New York and London markets moving lower in a broadly parallel fashion. In New York, declines ranged from -1.8% to -2.3%, with slightly more pronounced weakness in the front and mid-curve (May–Jul contracts), indicating some front-loaded pressure. Deferred contracts posted smaller percentage losses, but the overall move remains structurally uniform.

ICE London Cocoa (C)

London cocoa mirrored this behavior with highly consistent declines of roughly -1.7% to -1.9% across all maturities. The tight clustering of percentage changes suggests a clean, systematic selloff rather than contract-specific repositioning.

EFP, EFS and Spread Activity

Cross-market activity remained modest relative to outright futures volume. In New York, EFP and EFS flows were limited and front-loaded in May-26, indicating some short-term hedging or physical-related positioning but not at a scale sufficient to drive price action. London showed an even more concentrated pattern, with all EFP/EFS activity confined to the nearby contract.

By contrast, spread trading dominated the flow, particularly in New York where spread volume exceeded 21k lots. This indicates active calendar roll and intra-curve positioning, likely associated with systematic or fund-driven activity during the selloff. London also recorded elevated spread activity, though at a lower absolute level.

The imbalance between relatively low EFP/EFS and high spread volumes suggests that the move lower was not materially driven by physical hedging flows, but rather by financial participants adjusting curve exposure and rolling positions amid broader liquidation pressure.

Forward Curve

In ICE New York, the curve remains in a mild contango from May-26 through Mar-27, with spreads holding relatively stable despite the outright decline. The front of the curve (May–Sep) experienced slightly larger absolute and percentage losses, but the differential between nearby and deferred contracts changed only marginally. This indicates that the selloff did not materially alter curve steepness, and the market continues to price a gradual carry structure rather than near-term tightness.

In ICE London, the forward curve exhibits a similarly stable configuration, with a gentle upward slope into deferred maturities. The uniformity of price declines across all contracts resulted in minimal distortion to calendar spreads. The consistency of the move suggests that participants reduced exposure evenly across maturities rather than targeting specific segments of the curve.

US–UK May Spread

$3,172 − (2377 x 1.343$/£) =$-20 ton (down from $18)

The NY–London arbitrage has moved to approximately -$20, indicating that New York is now trading at a discount to London on an FX-adjusted basis. This is a notable shift, as the spread is typically positive.

Volume and Open Interest

Over the last five sessions, both markets show a gradual decline in trading activity following the mid-period spike on 19-Mar, when volumes peaked alongside the sharper price move lower.

ICE New York Cocoa (CC)

In New York, volume remains relatively resilient, holding in the 30–40k range, while open interest has trended modestly higher into 20-Mar. This suggests that the selloff phase was accompanied by net position building, likely on the short side.

ICE London Cocoa (C)

In London, the drop in volume is more pronounced, falling steadily to ~21k by 23-Mar. Meanwhile, open interest increased consistently through 20-Mar, reaching the top of the recent range. This combination of rising OI with declining prices, reinforces the signal of new short participation rather than long liquidation dominating recent sessions.

Тhe data points to a market that has moved from active liquidation into a quieter consolidation phase, albeit still under downward pressure.

Exchange Trading Volume

Certified stocks in New York increased by 9,239 lots between 20-Mar and 23-Mar, continuing the upward trend observed in prior sessions. This steady build in exchange inventories suggests ongoing bean availability into deliverable channels, which is consistent with the softer price environment and may be contributing to downward pressure on futures.

In contrast, London stocks remained unchanged, indicating a more static physical backdrop. The divergence between rising US stocks and flat UK inventories reinforces the relative weakness observed in New York prices and aligns with the recent inversion in the NY–London arbitrage.

These figures refer only to ICE Deliverable Stocks (Exchange-Visible)

Readers can explore detailed cocoa market datasets, futures statistics, and historical indicators in the CocoaIntel Data Hub:

Data

📊 Grindings 📦 Inventory / Certified Stocks 🚢 Import / Export Flows ⚖️ Stock-to-Grind Ratio 📈 Futures Contracts 🔄 Futures Curve & Spreads 🧠 COT / Positioning 🚚 Port Deliveries 🌧️ Weather Dashboard 🌀 Options & Volatility 📅 Seasonality 📑 Institutional Reports 🗓️ Cocoa Calendar This section is currently under active development. We are building a structured, transparent cocoa market data platform covering futures analytics, certified stocks, positioning

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What to expect on Тuesday

The most likely scenario is a continuation of the current pattern, characterized by either a gradual move lower or sideways consolidation with a downward bias. Initial support is seen around 3,150, with a potential extension toward 3,100 if pressure persists. On the upside, resistance is expected in the 3,220–3,250 range, with stronger selling interest likely emerging ahead of the 3,300 level. While short-covering rallies may occur, they are expected to be limited and corrective in nature unless accompanied by a clear shift in momentum and a break above key resistance levels.

If you notice any discrepancies in these figures or have extra information, please email [email protected] or leave a comment – corrections and additional insights are always welcome.