New York Cocoa Falls 4.02% to $5,927; Dry Weather and Labour Shortages Cloud Brazil’s Main-Crop Outlook (8 September 2026)
December New York cocoa came under sustained selling pressure on 8 September, closing at $5,927/t, down $248, or 4.02%, from the previous session’s $6,175 close. After opening at $6,119 and reaching a session high of $6,237, the early rebound gave way to successive breaks below $6,100 and $6,000. A brief consolidation around $5,950–6,000 failed to hold, allowing another selling wave to push prices to the session low of $5,730, an 8.13% decline from the high. Prices subsequently recovered 3.44% from that low, but finished below $6,000 and only 38.9% of the way up the $507 daily range. Volume expanded during the sharper declines, while the recovery attracted generally lighter activity and on-balance volume remained near its intraday lows, providing limited confirmation of the bounce. Five-minute RSI and MACD improved as prices stabilised, but the failure to reclaim $6,000, alongside a close beneath the longer-period intraday moving averages, left the recovery looking corrective rather than confirming a reversal.
Brazil: Weather and labour constraints cloud southern Bahia’s main-crop outlook
Cocoa growers in southern Bahia are reporting weaker prospects for the 2026/27 main crop, with rainfall deficits, uneven flowering and harvesting-labour shortages affecting expectations. Rainfall declined sharply from April after a relatively normal start to the year. Growers described weaker flowering and less promising crop development in older plantations, although newer plantings were performing better. One producer reported losing approximately 15% of her first-half production because insufficient labour prevented timely harvesting, highlighting an operational constraint alongside the weather risks. Interviewees also warned that further dry conditions could affect both the final stages of the main harvest and the following crop.
Côte d’Ivoire: Forward-sales timing explains the gap between farmgate prices and subsequent market movements
Reporting published on 8 September provided additional context for Côte d’Ivoire’s 2026/27 guaranteed producer price of CFA1,200/kg, announced on 1 September. The Conseil du Café-Cacao sold approximately 1.1 million tonnes of export contracts between March and June 2026 at an average value of around CFA1,940/kg. On those reported figures, the producer price represents approximately 62% of the average sales value.
The account illustrates the lag between forward export sales and farmgate-price setting. Prices secured months before the marketing campaign constrain the proceeds available for distribution, meaning a subsequent futures recovery does not automatically translate into an equivalent increase in the guaranteed producer price.
Togo: Recorded cocoa exports fall sharply despite reported production growth
Togo’s recorded a steep decline in cocoa exports during 2025/26. Reports place shipments at approximately 8,900 tonnes, down roughly 63–64% from the previous season, although published totals differ slightly between outlets. The underlying figures were presented by the Coffee and Cocoa Sector Coordination Committee on 4 September and had already been reported by Togo First on 7 September. Crucially, Togo First reported that domestic cocoa production increased by 7% to 23,084 tonnes over the same season.
Officials attributed part of the export decline to unregistered operators and smuggling, which disrupt formal marketing channels. The contrast between falling recorded exports and rising reported production argues against interpreting the shipment decline as an equivalent loss of physical harvest. Authorities are prioritising product quality, farm mapping, traceability and more formalised trading arrangements.
Traceability: PwC, Merck and Hashgraph test links between physical cocoa and digital records
PwC Germany, Merck KGaA and The Hashgraph Group are testing a cocoa traceability system that links physical authentication markers on cocoa bags with records on Hedera’s distributed ledger. The project is intended to connect product identity with origin and compliance information, while helping companies identify affected batches more precisely during contamination incidents or compliance investigations. The partners also envisage potential applications in direct farmer payments and access to financial services.
For cocoa procurement, the potential significance lies in improving the connection between the physical consignment and the documentation accompanying it. However, the initiative remains a pilot, not evidence of industry-wide adoption or an increase in verified compliant supply. Its eventual commercial value will depend on reliable information at origin, participation across the supply chain and implementation costs.
Côte d’Ivoire: PROMIRE reports progress in cocoa agroforestry and land restoration
Côte d’Ivoire’s PROMIRE project presented cumulative progress at a steering-committee meeting in Abidjan on 8 September. According to APA, more than 3,500 hectares of degraded cocoa plantations have been converted into agroforestry systems, while more than 1,260 hectares of degraded land have been restored. The programme has reached over 5,700 small producers across La Mé, Agnéby-Tiassa and Sud-Comoé. Implemented through the environment ministry in partnership with FAO and financed by the Green Climate Fund, the project has been extended until May 2027.
The results concern rehabilitation, environmental management and farming-system resilience rather than a newly quantified increase in cocoa production. Their relevance is principally structural: improving existing production systems while addressing deforestation pressures. The reported hectares represent cumulative programme achievements, not new planting completed today.
Confectionery: Mars and General Mills sue US sugar suppliers over alleged price fixing
Reuters reported on 8 September that Mars, General Mills and other food manufacturers sued major US sugar suppliers, including United Sugar and Domino owner ASR Group, over alleged price fixing. The lawsuit, filed in Chicago on 4 September, alleges that suppliers exchanged commercially sensitive information to coordinate prices.
Futures performance
New York cocoa
| Contract | 4 Sep | 8 Sep | Change | Change % |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep-26 | $6,049 | $6,080 | +$31 | +0.51% |
| Dec-26 | $6,175 | $5,927 | −$248 | −4.02% |
| Mar-27 | $6,291 | $6,036 | −$255 | −4.05% |
| May-27 | $6,335 | $6,087 | −$248 | −3.91% |
| Jul-27 | $6,334 | $6,107 | −$227 | −3.58% |
| Sep-27 | $6,275 | $6,066 | −$209 | −3.33% |
| Dec-27 | $6,154 | $5,966 | −$188 | −3.05% |
| Mar-28 | $6,170 | $5,871 | −$299 | −4.85% |
New York cocoa finished 8 September materially below its 4 September levels across the actively traded curve. Dec-26 declined by $248 per tonne, or 4.02%, to $5,927, while Mar-27 lost $255, or 4.05%, to $6,036. May-27 and Jul-27 fell by 3.91% and 3.58%, respectively. Among the Dec-26 through Dec-27 maturities, percentage losses generally moderated farther along the curve, indicating greater relative weakness in the earlier contracts.
Sep-26 was the only maturity in the comparison to finish higher, gaining $31, or 0.51%. However, only one contract traded in that maturity, making its apparent resilience unrepresentative of the broader market. At the other end of the comparison, Mar-28 recorded the largest percentage decline, falling 4.85%, but turnover was also limited at 147 contracts. The more liquid December and March contracts therefore provide the clearest indication of the market’s weakness.
Trading ranges on 8 September were substantial. Dec-26 and Mar-27 each moved through a $507-per-tonne range, while May-27 and Jul-27 recorded ranges of $494 and $454. Dec-26 traded between $5,730 and $6,237 before finishing at $5,927. Across these four maturities, closing prices stood only 36.7% to 38.9% of the way from the session low to the high. Prices consequently finished comfortably above their lows, but remained in the lower half of their respective ranges.
Total futures volume reached 52,599 contracts, up 110.3% from the 25,014 reported on 4 September. Dec-26 accounted for 27,241 contracts and Mar-27 for 15,011, together representing 80.3% of total turnover. Spread volume increased 87.6% to 29,647 contracts, although its share of total activity declined from 63.2% to 56.4%. Trading activity therefore increased substantially, while becoming somewhat less concentrated in spreads.
New York futures curve
The New York curve shifted lower across every plotted maturity beyond September, while retaining a broad mid-2027 peak. Jul-27 became the highest-priced contract at $6,107, compared with May-27’s leading position at $6,335 on 4 September. The May-27/Jul-27 relationship moved from a $1 backwardation to a $20 contango, shifting the curve’s peak slightly farther forward.
Changes between the more actively traded contracts were considerably smaller than the outright price declines. Dec-26/Mar-27 contango narrowed from $116 to $109 per tonne, while Mar-27/May-27 contango widened from $44 to $51. Farther along the curve, Jul-27/Sep-27 backwardation compressed from $59 to $41, and Sep-27/Dec-27 backwardation narrowed from $121 to $100. The middle of the curve therefore retained its premium over later maturities, but that premium diminished beyond July.
The Dec-26/Dec-27 relationship moved from a $21 backwardation to a $39 contango, reflecting a $60 deterioration in December 2026 relative to December 2027. This is a more useful indication of relative weakness in the earlier delivery period than the apparent tightening in Sep-26/Dec-26. That nearby relationship flipped from a $126 contango to a $153 backwardation, but September’s one-contract turnover makes it an unreliable signal of broader physical tightness.
London cocoa
| Contract | 4 Sep | 8 Sep | Change | Change % |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep-26 | £4,393 | £4,148 | −£245 | −5.58% |
| Dec-26 | £4,520 | £4,301 | −£219 | −4.85% |
| Mar-27 | £4,654 | £4,440 | −£214 | −4.60% |
| May-27 | £4,652 | £4,446 | −£206 | −4.43% |
| Jul-27 | £4,633 | £4,437 | −£196 | −4.23% |
| Sep-27 | £4,559 | £4,387 | −£172 | −3.77% |
| Dec-27 | £4,430 | £4,294 | −£136 | −3.07% |
| Mar-28 | £4,400 | £4,270 | −£130 | −2.95% |
London cocoa finished below its 4 September levels across all eight maturities, with losses progressively moderating along the curve. Sep-26 recorded the largest decline, losing £245 per tonne, or 5.58%, to £4,148. Dec-26 fell £219, or 4.85%, to £4,301, while Mar-27 declined £214, or 4.60%, to £4,440. The progressively smaller percentage losses toward Dec-27 and Mar-28 demonstrate that weakness was concentrated more heavily in earlier delivery periods rather than representing a uniform downward shift.
The actively traded Dec-26 through Jul-27 contracts recorded ranges of £336 to £377 per tonne on 8 September. Dec-26 traded between £4,167 and £4,544 before finishing at £4,301. Across these four maturities, closing prices stood just 34.7% to 35.5% of the way from the session low to the high. As in New York, the market finished above its lows but remained decisively in the lower half of the day’s trading ranges.
Total futures volume reached 48,967 contracts. Dec-26 traded 16,027 contracts and Mar-27 traded 15,252, together accounting for 63.9% of total turnover. Spread volume was 31,545 contracts, equivalent to 64.4% of total activity, compared with 56.4% in New York. London therefore showed a greater concentration of reported turnover in spreads, with activity more evenly distributed between the two principal December and March maturities.
London futures curve
London’s curve shifted lower while becoming steeper at the nearby end. Sep-26/Dec-26 contango widened from £127 to £153 per tonne, and Dec-26/Mar-27 contango increased from £134 to £139. Unlike New York’s thinly traded September anomaly, London’s nearby spread movement was consistent with the broader pattern of earlier contracts underperforming deferred maturities.
The curve’s peak moved from Mar-27 to May-27. Mar-27/May-27 shifted from a £2 backwardation to a £6 contango, while May-27/Jul-27 backwardation narrowed from £19 to £9. March, May and July consequently finished within a £9 band, compared with £21 on 4 September, leaving a flatter mid-2027 plateau around £4,440 per tonne.
Backwardation also compressed farther along the curve. Jul-27/Sep-27 narrowed from £74 to £50, while Sep-27/Dec-27 declined from £129 to £93. Most notably, the Dec-26 premium over Dec-27 contracted from £90 to just £7. Taken together, these changes show a substantial reduction in the relative value of earlier delivery periods, rather than an outright price decline accompanied by strengthening nearby premiums.
US–UK Spread
(Dec Contract)
$5,927 − (£4,301 x 1.352$/£) =$112ton (up from $64ton)
Volume and Open Interest
New York cocoa
New York cocoa volume increased to 52,599 contracts on 8 September, up 27,585 contracts, or 110.3%, from 25,014 in the previous trading session on 4 September. The rebound ended three consecutive session-on-session declines in turnover and lifted activity to its highest level since 28 August. However, the percentage increase was amplified by the unusually low comparison base: 4 September had recorded the lowest volume for the past month.
Relative to recent norms, the increase was considerably less exceptional. Turnover was 4.0% above the preceding 20-session average of 50,553 contracts and 2.8% above the full 22-session average of 51,173. It ranked tenth among the 22 trading sessions shown and remained 24,815 contracts, or 32.1%, below the period peak of 77,414 on 11 August. The session therefore represented a return to approximately normal participation rather than an unusually heavy-volume event.
The latest trading-session open-interest figure, for 4 September, increased to 178,385 contracts from 177,619 on 3 September, a rise of 766 contracts, or 0.43%. Open interest had recovered by 6,330 contracts, or 3.7%, from the 26 August low of 172,055. Nevertheless, it remained 20,480 contracts, or 10.3%, below the 198,865 recorded on 7 August. The recovery therefore represents only a partial rebuilding of the outstanding position base following August’s much larger contraction.
London cocoa
London cocoa volume rose to 48,967 contracts on 8 September, up 35,348 contracts, or 259.5%, from 13,619 on 7 September. The previous session was the lightest in the displayed trading window, magnifying the percentage rebound. Even against the less depressed 4 September comparison of 25,170 contracts, however, turnover increased by 94.5%. The advance also ended five consecutive session-on-session declines in volume.
Unlike New York, London’s activity was substantially above its recent trading norm. Volume exceeded the preceding 20-session average of 27,643 contracts by 77.1% and stood 73.0% above the full 22-session average of 28,306. It was the second-highest daily total in the displayed period, exceeded only by the 64,992 contracts traded on 28 August. Although still 24.7% below that peak, the session represented a pronounced expansion in turnover rather than simply a return to average activity.
The latest available open-interest figure, for 7 September, was 211,687 contracts, down just 80 contracts, or 0.04%, from 211,767 on 4 September. Outstanding positions were therefore essentially unchanged immediately before the volume surge. Open interest remained 3,070 contracts, or 1.5%, above the 1 September low of 208,617, but 4,526 contracts, or 2.1%, below the period high of 216,213 on 7 August. London consequently entered the latest session with a comparatively stable position base, following a modest recovery from its early-September low.
Exchange Trading Volume
| MARKET | 4 SEP 2026 | 8 SEP 2026 | CHANGE | CHANGE % |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| US | 3,436,742 | 3,432,259 | −4,483 | −0.13% |
| UK | 1,224,375 | 1,295,156 | +70,781 | +5.78% |
The measure is not a complete regional stock-to-grind ratio, as it includes only exchange-certified cocoa held at U.S. and EU delivery ports and excludes commercial inventories outside the ICE warehouse system. North America NCA grindings cover processors across North America, while ICE U.S. certified stocks are stored at U.S. delivery ports. ECA reports bean usage in European countries and London-certified cocoa is held in European and UK delivery locations.
Readers can explore detailed cocoa market datasets, futures statistics, and historical indicators in the CocoaIntel Data Hub:
Cocoa IntelWednesday Outlook Dec Contract
For 9 September, December New York cocoa retains a bearish bias around $5,927, with negative hourly MACD, sub-50 RSI and weak volume confirmation behind the intraday rebound. Stochastics recovering from oversold leave scope for an initial bounce toward $5,950–6,000, but $6,050–6,100 is the decisive resistance zone. Failure to reclaim it would favour renewed pressure toward $5,850, followed by $5,730–5,780 if support breaks. Conversely, an hourly close above $6,100 followed by a successful retest, supported by stronger buying volume, would weaken the bearish case and bring $6,200–6,250 into view. The preferred technical scenario is a corrective bounce vulnerable to renewed selling, rather than a sustained reversal.
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