New York Remains Capped Below Key Technical Resistance
Coffee markets ended August caught between two competing narratives. Delayed physical flows and historically low certified arabica stocks continue to support nearby prices, while improving production prospects, a projected global surplus and early signs of weaker demand create a more comfortable medium-term outlook.
New York December Remains Below Key Resistance
New York arabica futures started the week in quiet conditions, with the closure of the London market limiting participation. Volume in the December contract fell to 15,107 lots, the lowest daily total of August and one of the lightest sessions of the year.
December settled 1.35 cents lower at 311.50 cents per pound after trading between 309.05 and 317.15 cents. Prices briefly moved above the first resistance at 317.00 cents but were unable to extend the advance towards the 20-day moving average, currently near 318.30 cents.
This was the third consecutive session in which December approached that technical area without achieving a sustained breakout. Average daily volatility over those three sessions declined to approximately 9.40 cents, around 38% below the average recorded during the previous two weeks.
Despite Monday’s decline, the contract ended August with a monthly gain of 3.15 cents.
Calendar spreads remained firm. The December/March premium narrowed marginally to 12.20 cents from 12.25 cents, while December/May strengthened to 16.20 cents. March/May widened to 4.00 cents from 3.80 cents.
Certified Arabica Stocks Remain Historically Low
ICE-certified arabica inventories were unchanged at 223,976 bags, their lowest recorded level. Stocks declined by 40,202 bags during August, with another 3,205 bags awaiting grading.
Rabobank expects this tightness to persist for several more weeks. Delays in moving Brazilian coffee to export markets, together with earthquake-related disruption in Colombia, have slowed the flow of beans from producing countries to consuming markets. The bank does not expect a meaningful recovery in certified arabica stocks before November.
The robusta market is beginning to show a different pattern, with certified inventories already recovering. This divergence suggests that the most immediate physical tightness remains concentrated in arabica rather than across the coffee complex as a whole.
Brazil’s Harvest Reaches 97%
Brazil had completed approximately 97% of its 2026/27 coffee harvest by August 26, according to Safras & Mercado. Progress increased by three percentage points during the week, although harvesting remained slightly behind last season, when fieldwork had already been completed by the same date.
The conilon harvest is finished, while arabica collection has reached 96% of expected production. That compares with 99% at the corresponding point in 2025.
The slower harvest does not necessarily indicate a production problem, but it helps explain why the expected improvement in physical availability has taken longer to reach export channels and consuming markets.
Traders were also assessing an upward revision to Cecafé’s preliminary August export figures. The revision reportedly produced a substantial increase in the shipment total, although no final quantity was provided. Stronger confirmed exports could eventually ease concerns over Brazilian availability, but their effect on ICE stocks will depend on destination, quality and certification eligibility.
Rabobank Projects a Large 2026/27 Surplus
While nearby supply remains constrained, the global balance is expected to improve significantly. Rabobank continues to forecast an 8.9-million-bag coffee surplus for the October 2026–September 2027 season.
The bank therefore considers the overall supply outlook comfortable but warns that the transition towards a better-supplied market is proving slower and less orderly than initially expected. The distinction is important: coffee may be plentiful on a full-season basis while remaining difficult to access in specific origins, qualities or delivery locations over the short term.
High prices are also beginning to affect consumption. Imports by non-producing countries were reportedly 6.2% lower than a year earlier, suggesting that roasters and consumers are responding to the prolonged period of elevated prices.
El Niño remains a legitimate weather risk across several producing regions. However, Rabobank believes market prices are increasingly reflecting anticipated crop damage rather than losses that have already occurred. Unless weather conditions deteriorate materially, this could limit the risk premium that traders are prepared to add to futures.
Peru Records US$1.796 Billion in Coffee Exports
Peru earned a record US$1.796 billion from coffee exports in 2025, extending the strong growth recorded in 2024, when export revenue exceeded US$1.1 billion and increased by 33% from the previous year.
Peruvian coffee reached 52 international markets. The United States remained the principal destination, followed by Germany, Belgium, Canada and Colombia. Peru is currently ranked as the world’s ninth-largest producer and exporter of conventional coffee.
The record value should not be interpreted automatically as an equivalent increase in shipment volume. International coffee prices rose sharply between 2023 and 2025, meaning higher unit values probably accounted for a significant part of the increase in export earnings.
Coffee supports approximately 223,000 Peruvian farming families and close to two million people across the wider value chain. Around 85% of producers cultivate between one and five hectares, while only about 20% participate in cooperatives or producer associations.
The country is also seeking to raise domestic coffee consumption from approximately 1.2 kilograms per person to 1.5 kilograms by 2027.
Brazilian Cold Fronts Require Monitoring
Brazil is expected to experience two separate incursions of polar air during the first week of September.
The first system, arriving between September 1 and 2, is not forecast to generate extreme cold but should bring rain and instability across a broad area, including Paraná, São Paulo, Minas Gerais and Espírito Santo.
Isolated frost may occur in the higher elevations of Rio Grande do Sul and Santa Catarina on September 2 and 3, with some risk extending into southern Minas Gerais. At present, the forecast represents a localized rather than widespread threat to the arabica belt.
A second and potentially stronger cold-air mass is expected later in the week. Its trajectory and minimum-temperature forecasts will require close monitoring, particularly across the higher arabica-producing areas.