Profit-Taking Eases as Weather Risks Remain (13 July 2026)
- New York September cocoa settled at 5,808, down 165 points (-2.76%), after recovering from an intraday low of 5,463 (-8.54%) as early selling pressure eased.
- Repeated ICE margin increases continue to reduce market liquidity, amplifying intraday volatility and encouraging technical-driven trading.
- Brazil Q2 cocoa grindings rose 8.6% y/y to 49,711 tonnes, while domestic bean arrivals surged 64% to 66,503 tonnes.
- Farmers in Côte d'Ivoire reported that recent rainfall has eased excessive soil moisture, but more sunshine is needed to support flowering and pod development ahead of the main crop.
- Cocoa arrivals at Côte d'Ivoire's ports reached 1.956 million tonnes as of 12 July, 19.3% above the same period last season, with weekly arrivals totaling 22,000 tonnes versus 12,000 tonnes a year earlier.
During Monday's session, New York cocoa opened lower and came under early selling pressure, extending Friday's correction as prices fell to an intraday low of 5,463, a decline of 510 points (-8.54%) from Friday's close. However, selling interest gradually faded, allowing the market to recover steadily throughout the day. Prices rebounded from the session lows and traded in a relatively narrow range during the afternoon, with the September 2026 contract closing at 5,808, down 165 points (-2.76%) from Friday's close. The intraday recovery suggests that buyers began to emerge at lower price levels, while the absence of renewed heavy selling into the close indicates that bearish momentum eased as the session progressed.
Market participants remain focused on weather developments in West Africa. Forecasts suggest that the emerging La Niña weather pattern could strengthen and increase the risk of adverse weather conditions during the upcoming 2026/27 crop season. In Côte d'Ivoire, the world's largest cocoa producer, the main crop is currently expected to decline by more than 10%, with insufficient crop care and weather-related concerns cited as key factors.
Volatility has also been amplified by repeated increases in ICE exchange margin requirements. Higher margins have reduced market liquidity by limiting the capital available for trading, contributing to larger intraday price swings as traders adjust positions. Analysts noted that while fundamental factors remain supportive, the combination of speculative positioning, reduced liquidity, and technical trading signals continues to drive unusually volatile price action.
Brazil Cocoa
Brazil's cocoa processing sector continued to recover during the second quarter of 2026. According to industry association AIPC, cocoa grindings increased 8.6% year-on-year to 49,711 metric tons, supported by a sharp improvement in domestic cocoa supply. Arrivals of locally produced beans at processing facilities rose 64% from a year earlier to 66,503 tons.
Despite the improvement, processing volumes remain well below historical levels. AIPC noted that second-quarter grindings were still around 20% lower than in the same period of 2023, highlighting that Brazil's cocoa sector has yet to fully recover. Higher domestic production also eliminated the need for cocoa bean imports during the quarter, marking the first time in four years that Brazilian processors relied entirely on locally produced cocoa.
Ivory Coast Weather Update
Weather conditions in Côte d'Ivoire remain mixed as farmers monitor the development of the upcoming September-to-February main crop. While below-average rainfall over the past week helped dry overly wet soils following heavy rains in late June, producers emphasized that longer periods of sunshine are still needed to support flowering and pod development.
Farmers across several growing regions reported that persistent cloud cover has limited sunlight, which is essential for crop development at this stage of the season. Although current conditions are not yet considered critical, growers expect a clearer assessment of the main crop's potential by late August. Some farmers also expressed concerns that cooler temperatures and below-average rainfall in certain central regions could slow flowering if sunny conditions do not improve in the coming weeks.
Cocoa Intel
Ivory Coast Cocoa Arrivals
Cocoa arrivals at ports in Côte d'Ivoire reached an estimated 1.956 million metric tons as of 12 July, up 19.3% compared with the same point in the previous season. Exporters estimated that around 12,000 tons of beans were delivered to Abidjan and 10,000 tons to San Pedro between 6 and 12 July, bringing total weekly arrivals to 22,000 tons, compared with 12,000 tons during the corresponding week last year.
Cocoa Intel
Futures Performance
The cocoa market remained under pressure on Monday, extending Friday's broad-based correction. Both the New York and London markets recorded another session of losses, although the pace of the decline moderated compared with Friday's sharp sell-off. Losses were relatively uniform across the forward curves, suggesting continued long liquidation rather than pressure concentrated in nearby contracts.
New York Cocoa (CC)
| Contract | 10-Jul Close | 13-Jul Close | Change | % Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep-26 | 5,973 | 5,808 | -165 | -2.76% |
| Dec-26 | 6,100 | 5,939 | -161 | -2.64% |
| Mar-27 | 6,181 | 6,027 | -154 | -2.49% |
| May-27 | 6,172 | 6,023 | -149 | -2.41% |
The New York market extended Friday's decline, with actively traded contracts losing between 149 and 165 points. September 2026 fell 165 points (-2.76%) to close at 5,808, while December 2026 declined 161 points (-2.64%) to 5,939. March 2027 settled 154 points lower (-2.49%) at 6,027, and May 2027 finished down 149 points (-2.41%) at 6,023.
Although the market continued lower, the smaller declines relative to Friday suggest that selling pressure moderated. The consistent losses across deferred maturities indicate that liquidation remained broad-based rather than being driven by nearby contract weakness.
London Cocoa (C)
| Contract | 10-Jul Close | 13-Jul Close | Change | % Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep-26 | 4,426 | 4,355 | -71 | -1.60% |
| Dec-26 | 4,490 | 4,404 | -86 | -1.92% |
| Mar-27 | 4,558 | 4,467 | -91 | -2.00% |
| May-27 | 4,545 | 4,452 | -93 | -2.05% |
The London market also weakened for a second consecutive session, although losses were more moderate than those recorded on Friday. September 2026 declined 71 points (-1.60%) to 4,355, while December 2026 fell 86 points (-1.92%) to 4,404. March 2027 lost 91 points (-2.00%) to settle at 4,467, and May 2027 closed 93 points lower (-2.05%) at 4,452.
The relatively even declines across the London curve mirror the pattern seen in New York, indicating continued position reduction across maturities. However, the smaller daily losses compared with Friday suggest that selling intensity eased somewhat as the market entered the new trading week.
EFP, EFS and Spread Activity
Exchange for Physical (EFP) activity remained limited in both cocoa markets. New York recorded 187 EFPs, down sharply from 518 on the previous trading session, while London reported 518 EFPs, reflecting continued but moderate physical-related hedging activity.
Exchange for Swaps (EFS) transactions were minimal. New York registered just 2 EFS contracts, whereas London recorded 1,912 EFS, indicating that swap-related positioning remained concentrated in the London market.
Calendar spread trading continued to account for a substantial share of overall activity. New York spread volume totaled 29,821 contracts, while London recorded 33,094 contracts. The strong spread participation suggests that traders remained focused on rolling positions and managing exposure along the forward curve rather than establishing significant new outright directional positions.
The combination of lower EFP activity, very limited EFS trading in New York, and robust calendar spread volumes points to a market that continues to emphasize position management and curve trading following last week's heightened price volatility.
US–UK Spread
(Sep Contract)
$5,808 − (£4,355 x 1.335$/£) =$-6ton (down from $42ton)
Volume and Open Interest
Trading activity diverged between the two cocoa markets on Monday. New York total futures volume declined to 47,602 contracts from 59,613 on Friday, a decrease of approximately 20%, indicating reduced trading activity after last week's heightened volatility. In contrast, London trading volume increased to 49,069 contracts from 42,444, a gain of nearly 16%, reflecting improved participation as the market continued to adjust following Friday's sharp correction.
New York Cocoa (CC)
| Date | Total Volume | Open Interest |
|---|---|---|
| 07-Jul-26 | 59,983 | 197,971 |
| 08-Jul-26 | 54,825 | 197,946 |
| 09-Jul-26 | 55,509 | 201,342 |
| 10-Jul-26 | 59,613 | 200,472 |
| 13-Jul-26 | 47,602 | N/A |
London Cocoa (C)
| Date | Total Volume | Open Interest |
|---|---|---|
| 07-Jul-26 | 43,364 | 234,948 |
| 08-Jul-26 | 43,919 | 235,463 |
| 09-Jul-26 | 44,252 | 236,125 |
| 10-Jul-26 | 42,444 | 234,313 |
| 13-Jul-26 | 49,069 | N/A |
Despite the sharp decline in prices, New York open interest fell on Friday from 201,342 to 200,472 contracts. The simultaneous decline in both prices and open interest indicates that Friday's weakness was primarily driven by long liquidation and profit-taking after the strong rally, rather than aggressive initiation of new short positions. This interpretation is further supported by the broad and relatively uniform decline across the forward curve, which suggests widespread position reduction instead of concentrated selling in nearby maturities.
Exchange Trading Volume
| Exchange | 10 Jul 2026 | 13 Jul 2026 | Change | % Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ICE U.S. Cocoa | 3,151,790 | 3,194,270 | +42,480 | +1.35% |
| ICE Europe Cocoa | 1,096,563 | 1,115,156 | +18,593 | +1.70% |
These figures refer only to ICE Deliverable Stocks (Exchange-Visible)
Readers can explore detailed cocoa market datasets, futures statistics, and historical indicators in the CocoaIntel Data Hub:
Cocoa IntelWhat to expect on Tuesday
Following Friday's broad profit-taking and Monday's more moderate decline, the cocoa market appears to be entering a consolidation phase. Technical indicators suggest that bearish momentum has eased, while the longer-term trend remains constructive. As long as support around the 5,800 level holds, the market is likely to stabilize and attempt a recovery toward the 5,900–6,000 area during Tuesday's session. However, a decisive break below nearby support could trigger another round of selling toward last week's lows. Overall, the current market structure favors consolidation with a slight upside bias rather than an immediate continuation of the sharp correction.
If you notice any discrepancies in these figures or have extra information, please email [email protected] or leave a comment – corrections and additional insights are always welcome.
