Strong Flowering Faces Sunshine Risk in Côte d’Ivoire’s Cocoa Belt (20 July 2026)

New York September cocoa experienced a highly volatile session on 20 July. The contract opened at 5,518 USD/tonne and initially came under pressure, falling to an intraday low of 5,349 before attracting strong buying interest. Prices subsequently recovered sharply and reached a session high of 5,681, but the advance was not sustained as sellers re-emerged near the upper end of the range. The contract then retreated and consolidated around 5,500, closing at 5,507 USD/tonne. The wide 332 USD/tonne intraday range highlights substantial two-way activity, while the recovery from the session low confirms that the rising 21-day moving average continues to provide important technical support.

Ivory Coast Port Deliveries

Ivory Coast cocoa arrivals reached 1.969 million tonnes by 19 July for the 2025/26 season, an increase of 19.1% compared with the same period last year, according to exporter estimates. During the week from 13 to 19 July, approximately 13,000 tonnes were delivered to the country’s ports, comprising 5,000 tonnes at Abidjan and 8,000 tonnes at San Pedro. The same quantity, 13,000 tonnes, was delivered during the corresponding week last year.

Ivory Coast Grindings

Ivory Coast’s cocoa grind rose sharply in June, with GEPEX reporting 56,325 tonnes of beans processed, up 22% year on year. Cumulative grindings for the 2025/26 season reached 493,468 tonnes by the end of June, 3.7% above the corresponding period last season.

Based on cumulative grindings of 334,771 tonnes at the end of March, second-quarter processing totalled 158,697 tonnes. This was only 2,303 tonnes, or 1.4%, below our estimate of 161,000 tonnes published in last Thursday’s report. The close result indicates that the estimate accurately captured the recovery in origin processing during the quarter. May grindings had already increased to 55,769 tonnes, before rising further to 56,325 tonnes in June.

The relatively modest 3.7% increase in cumulative seasonal grindings may also suggest that Ivory Coast is approaching the practical limits of its current processing capacity. June’s grinding rate implies an annualised pace of approximately 676,000 tonnes, equivalent to around 90% of the country’s estimated installed capacity of 750,000 tonnes. At this level of utilisation, further sustained growth may become increasingly difficult without additional processing capacity, operational improvements or new investment.

The release of second-quarter cocoa grinding data from Europe, Asia and North America highlighted an increasingly uneven distribution of global cocoa processing activity. While Europe remained under pressure, processors in Asia, North America and Ivory Coast reported solid year-on-year growth, underscoring the continued shift in where cocoa is processed.

Combined grindings across the four reporting regions reached 809,368 tonnes during the second quarter, up 9.63% from 738,245 tonnes in the same period last year.

Weather

Field reports from Côte d’Ivoire point to strong flowering across several cocoa-growing regions, but the weather balance is becoming less favourable. Rainfall remains adequate in most areas and has supported crop development, yet persistent cloud cover is limiting the sunshine needed for flowers to set and develop into young pods.

Conditions vary by location. Rainfall was above seasonal norms in parts of Divo, Abengourou, Bongouanou and Yamoussoukro, while some western and central-western districts recorded below-average totals. Farmers nevertheless reported more flowers on trees than at the same stage last year, indicating encouraging production potential for the 2026/27 main crop.

The immediate concern is not a shortage of moisture, but insufficient sunlight. If overcast conditions continue for several weeks, flower losses could increase and reduce the number of pods available for the harvest beginning in October. Crop prospects therefore remain positive, but they depend increasingly on a shift toward sunnier conditions during August and September. Limited use of fertilisers and crop-protection products, linked to financial constraints among farmers, may add further risk if weather conditions deteriorate.

Futures Performance

New York Cocoa

London Cocoa

Cocoa futures showed a mixed performance on Monday, 20 July, following the broad recovery recorded in the previous session. New York contracts moved uniformly lower, while London cocoa remained comparatively resilient, particularly across the deferred positions. Both markets retained an upward-sloping futures curve from September through March, with deferred contracts trading at premiums to the nearby position. In London, stronger performance in March and May further supported the back end of the curve and largely eliminated the inversion between those two maturities.

EFP, EFS and Spread Activity

Spread trading remained the dominant component of cocoa futures activity on 20 July. In New York, spread volume reached 25,541 lots, equivalent to approximately 68.9% of total reported volume. December 2026 was the most actively traded spread contract with 10,683 lots, followed by September 2026 with 8,690 lots and March 2027 with 4,136 lots.

New York also recorded 187 EFP transactions, concentrated entirely in the September and December 2026 contracts, with 45 and 142 lots, respectively. No EFS activity was reported.

London recorded 13,961 lots of spread volume, representing approximately 65.6% of total volume. December 2026 led spread activity with 5,128 lots, followed by September 2026 with 3,303 lots and March 2027 with 3,100 lots.

London EFP activity totalled 76 lots, comprising 48 lots in December 2026 and 28 lots in September 2026. EFS volume was higher at 143 lots, with 93 lots reported in September 2026 and 50 lots in December 2026.

The high proportion of spread trading in both markets indicates that much of Monday’s activity involved repositioning between contract months rather than outright directional exposure. New York registered both the larger spread volume and the higher spread share, while London showed stronger EFS activity, which may reflect greater interaction between futures positions and related physical or over-the-counter transactions.

US–UK Spread

(Sep Contract)

$5,507 − (£4,093 x 1.343$/£) =$10ton (down from $93ton)

Volume and Open Interest

New York Cocoa

Trading activity diverged across the two cocoa futures markets on 20 July. New York volume increased by 7.0% from the previous session to 37,091 lots, while London volume fell sharply by 30.5% to 21,296 lots. Combined turnover declined by 10.6% to 58,387 lots, compared with 65,304 lots on 17 July. New York accounted for approximately 63.5% of total volume, up from 53.1% in the previous session, reflecting the substantial contraction in London activity.

The latest available open-interest data relate to 17 July. In New York, open interest increased by 883 contracts, or 0.4%, while the September contract advanced by 3.11%. Rising prices accompanied by rising open interest generally indicate some participation from new buyers. However, the increase in open interest was modest relative to total volume of 34,667 lots, while spread transactions represented 62.8% of activity. The figures therefore provide only moderate confirmation of fresh directional long positioning, with a significant share of activity likely attributable to calendar-spread repositioning.

London Cocoa

London produced a different signal. Open interest declined by 3,076 contracts, or 1.3%, even as the September contract rose by 3.64%. Rising prices alongside falling open interest are generally associated with short covering, as existing bearish positions are closed rather than replaced by substantial new long exposure. This indicates that London’s stronger rebound was likely supported primarily by the reduction of short positions.

Across both exchanges, combined open interest decreased by 2,193 contracts despite the strong price recovery. The broader evidence therefore suggests that the 17 July rebound was driven more by position reduction and short covering, particularly in London, than by a broad expansion of new bullish exposure.

Exchange Trading Volume

The measure is not a complete regional stock-to-grind ratio, as it includes only exchange-certified cocoa held at U.S. and EU delivery ports and excludes commercial inventories outside the ICE warehouse system. North America NCA grindings cover processors across North America, while ICE U.S. certified stocks are stored at U.S. delivery ports. ECA reports bean usage in European countries and London-certified cocoa is held in European and UK delivery locations.

Readers can explore detailed cocoa market datasets, futures statistics, and historical indicators in the CocoaIntel Data Hub:

Data

📊 Grindings 📦 Inventory / Certified Stocks 🚢 Import / Export Flows ⚖️ Stock-to-Grind Ratio 📈 Futures Contracts 🔄 Futures Curve & Spreads 🧠 COT / Positioning 🚚 Port Deliveries 🌧️ Weather Dashboard 🌀 Options & Volatility 📅 Seasonality 📑 Institutional Reports 🗓️ Cocoa Calendar This section is currently under active development. We are building a structured, transparent cocoa market data platform covering futures analytics, certified stocks, positioning

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Tomorrow's Outlook

New York September cocoa is likely to enter the next session with a neutral to slightly bearish short-term bias after Monday’s failed intraday recovery and close near 5,520 USD/tonne. The contract advanced toward 5,650 during the session but could not sustain the move, before retreating sharply and consolidating around 5,500 into the close.

On the daily chart, the rising 21-day moving average continues to act as strong dynamic support. Recent declines have repeatedly attracted buying interest near this indicator, and Monday’s recovery from the intraday low provided further evidence that buyers remain active around the 21-day average. As long as the contract holds above this support, the broader recovery structure remains intact.

Short-term momentum has nevertheless weakened. The contract remains below its nine-day moving average, the stochastic oscillator is turning lower from elevated levels, and the MACD histogram has moved into negative territory. The hourly and five-minute charts also show moving averages converging around the current price, suggesting consolidation and the potential for a stronger move once the narrow range is broken.

Initial support is located between 5,400 and 5,700 USD/tonne, broadly corresponding with the rising 21-day moving average. A sustained break below this area could expose 5,000, followed by stronger support near 4,700 200 MA. On the upside, initial resistance is located between 5,850 and 6,000. A recovery above 6,000 would improve the short-term outlook and could lead to higher highs.

The base-case scenario is continued two-way trading within a range of approximately 5,400 to 5,800. Holding above the 21-day moving average would preserve the constructive daily structure, while a decisive close below it would indicate that the correction is extending.

If you notice any discrepancies in these figures or have extra information, please email [email protected] or leave a comment – corrections and additional insights are always welcome.