Sugar Recovery Fades as Brazil Rain and Export Risks Persist (28 September 2026)
Sugar futures finished Monday, 28 September 2026, mixed as an intraday recovery lost momentum. March 2027 raw sugar rebounded from 18.39 to 18.84 cents/lb before settling at 18.56, up 0.06 cent (+0.32%). London December white sugar recovered from $498.60 to $510.20/t, then eased to settle at $504.10/t, up $1.50 (+0.30%). Both benchmarks surrendered much of their recovery from the day's lows.
October raw sugar fell 0.23% to 17.46 cents/lb, widening its discount to March from 1.00 to 1.10 cents ahead of Wednesday's expiry. The weaker nearby spread offered little evidence of an immediate delivery squeeze, although expiry positioning complicates the signal. Raw-sugar volume rose 19.7% to 178,406 contracts, with March the most actively traded month. Monday's open-interest figures were not yet available.
Brazil's export slowdown adds a late supply concern
Reuters reported after Monday's sugar settlement that Brazil had exported approximately 2.4 million tonnes of sugar during September through Friday, 25 September, down 9.3% from the corresponding period a year earlier. The partial-month update adds to the information available for Tuesday's session. Its significance will depend on whether shipments recover before month-end or continue to lag alongside production constraints.
XP's Monday sector commentary highlighted continuing rain-related crushing delays, improved ethanol competitiveness against gasoline and declining ethanol stocks. These conditions could limit the sugar recovery even when harvesting accelerates, if mills allocate more cane to ethanol. The important production measures remain cane throughput, recoverable sugar and the share directed to sugar manufacturing.
Oil also finished modestly higher. WTI settled at $92.60/barrel, up $0.19, and Brent at $105.28, up $0.96. Their influence on mill incentives depends on Brazilian fuel prices and relative sugar and ethanol returns.
Brazil's rainfall forecast keeps harvest recovery uneven
INMET's forecast issued on Monday for 28 September–5 October projected local rainfall above 100 mm in parts of São Paulo, Minas Gerais and Espírito Santo, particularly southern areas and the Rio Doce valley. Southern Mato Grosso do Sul could receive up to 80 mm locally, while western Paraná could reach 150 mm.
The forecast keeps field access, cutting and cane transport at risk where heavier rain overlaps active harvesting. Drier intervals could allow operations elsewhere to recover, so the effect is likely to vary across the Centre-South. Rain also replenishes soil moisture for subsequent crop growth. For near-term sugar availability, the immediate question is how many harvesting days mills can recover during the remaining season.
India clarifies early crushing arrangements
Maharashtra Sugar Commissioner Sanjay Kolte said on Monday that licensed mills may begin the 2026/27 crushing season on or before 15 October. Early operation is optional. The clarification follows the government's 9 September decision, with licences already issued to mills that paid the previous season's fair and remunerative price obligations in full.
Earlier starts could bring fresh sugar to market sooner and allow drought-affected cane to be processed before further deterioration. The crop outlook remains constrained: WISMA's estimate of about 8.0 million tonnes, against 9.9 million tonnes last season, was already reported on 21 September. Monday's clarification concerns implementation and supply timing; it contains no upward revision to production.
Domestic prices stabilised after recent declines. ChiniMandi's Monday assessment quoted Maharashtra S/30 sugar at ₹4,300/quintal and M/30 at ₹4,380, with Uttar Pradesh M/30 at ₹4,480–4,560, excluding GST. Subdued offtake continued to offset crop concerns, leaving limited evidence of immediate pressure on available domestic supplies.
China sees new-season beet sugar offers
Yunnan Sugar Network reported on Monday that Inner Mongolia's 2026/27 beet-sugar producers had begun offering new-season sugar at around RMB5,600/t. The appearance of these offers is an early indication of new-crop availability, although the report provided no sales or shipment volumes.
Elsewhere, Guangxi morning quotations were broadly steady at RMB5,150–5,200/t, while Kunming offers eased to RMB5,060–5,100/t. January 2027 Zhengzhou sugar ended the morning session at RMB5,370/t, down RMB30 (0.56%). These quotations show little immediate domestic spot tightening; they do not establish the direction of Chinese import buying.
The inventory backdrop also remains relevant: Guangxi's previously reported end-August industrial stocks stood at approximately 1.496 million tonnes, up 787,400 tonnes year on year. That provides context for Monday's quotations, rather than a fresh stock update.
Thailand's rain risk remains regional
Thailand's Monday weather bulletin forecast heavy to very heavy rain in parts of the western and lower North, western Central region and East, including Nakhon Sawan, Suphan Buri and Kanchanaburi. The government's morning disaster update also reported rising water in those provinces.
Prolonged inundation could affect cane condition and field access, while rainfall on adequately drained land can benefit growth. The updates identify areas to monitor but provide no quantified sugarcane loss or national production revision.
Philippines updates its pest response
The Philippine Sugar Regulatory Administration said on Monday that roughly PHP400 million in assistance had been distributed to pest-affected farmers and workers under a programme operating since July. Officials also confirmed submission of a proposed national task force for sugar pests and disasters; the draft was finalised on 22 September and remained subject to approval.
The update concerns the response to an existing crop risk. It provides no new national sugar-loss estimate or import allocation, limiting its immediate significance for the global balance.
Tuesday's focus and Wednesday's tender
Tuesday's main questions are whether sugar can retain a renewed price recovery and how the market responds to Brazil's late export update. March raw sugar's Monday high of 18.84 cents/lb and low of 18.39 provide nearby reference points; December white sugar's range was $498.60–510.20/t. The October–March raw spread also warrants attention ahead of Wednesday's expiry, after closing at a 1.10-cent discount.
Pakistan's tender for 107,739 tonnes of previously imported white sugar remains an upcoming trade event. Bids close on Wednesday, 30 September, at 15:00 local time and open at 15:30. Monday reporting highlighted a $660/t ex-works reserve and a reduction in bid security from 10% to 2%; TCP's amendment was already listed from 25 September.
The reserve is approximately $156/t above Monday's December white-sugar settlement, an indicative comparison before differences in quality, delivery basis and export costs. Accepted bids and subsequent shipments will determine whether this stock becomes additional international supply. Until then, the tender's quantity should remain potential availability in the market assessment.