West African Weather Risk Builds as Speculative Bearish Exposure Eases (4/7 September 2026)

New York cocoa showed a failed intraday rally on Friday. Dec-26 opened at $6,180, advanced to a session high of $6,314, or 2.17% above the open, but the move was rejected and prices reversed sharply to a low of $6,149. The contract eventually closed at $6,175, down $5, or 0.08%, from the session open and 2.20% below the intraday high. Although the close remained $35, or 0.57%, above Thursday’s $6,140 close, the price action shows that buyers failed to sustain the move above $6,300 and that selling pressure dominated the latter part of the session, leaving the market near the lower end of its daily range.

Monday’s cocoa trading was limited to London, with the U.S. market closed for the Labor Day holiday. London cocoa came under heavy pressure early in the session, falling roughly 2.2% and briefly trading near the £4,390–£4,400 area, before buyers stepped in aggressively. Prices then recovered through £4,500 and finished around £4,518, leaving the contract up 0.14% on the day. The rebound from the lows was technically constructive and showed clear demand on weakness.

News

Pressure over Ghana’s cocoa producer price intensified over the weekend after the Institute of Economic Research and Public Policy (IERPP) argued that farmers should have received substantially more than the current GH¢2,500 per bag. Citing Ghana’s 2025 SIGA report, the institute said cocoa export earnings almost doubled from US$1.94 billion in 2024 to US$3.86 billion in 2025, while the average realised export price increased 32.4%, from US$4,440 to US$5,877.40 per tonne. Applying the same 32.4% increase to the previous producer price of GH¢3,100 would imply a farmer price of approximately GH¢4,104 per bag, or GH¢1,604 above the amount paid; using GH¢3,500 as the benchmark would imply roughly GH¢4,634 per bag. IERPP also challenged the argument that cedi appreciation explains the difference, noting that despite the currency strengthening from around GH¢14.70/$ to GH¢10.88/$, cocoa export earnings in local-currency terms still increased from about GH¢28.52 billion to GH¢42 billion. The institute stressed that export revenues do not translate directly into farmgate prices because financing, processing, transport and COCOBOD operating costs must also be considered, but called for a detailed public reconciliation of export earnings, realised prices, exchange-rate effects and sector costs. The development does not represent an immediate physical supply disruption, but it adds to pressure on Ghana’s cocoa-pricing framework and could become increasingly important for farmer incentives and sector stability.

Weather

Weather conditions across the West African cocoa belt remained generally adequate in early September, but the moisture profile became less comfortable and increasingly uneven. NOAA rainfall and moisture indicators do not point to widespread drought across Côte d’Ivoire and Ghana, yet they do show that several important producing areas have received less rain than climatology would normally imply for this stage of the season. Recent rainfall has therefore been sufficient to sustain crop development in many areas, but not strong or uniform enough to rebuild a large moisture buffer. At the same time, elevated evaporative demand has increased moisture loss between showers, particularly across inland Côte d’Ivoire and parts of Ghana. Vegetation-health indicators still show no broad deterioration consistent with acute crop stress, suggesting that the crop remains viable overall, but the balance has shifted from comfortably supportive toward more weather-sensitive.

During 31 August–6 September, NOAA RFE2 data showed rainfall continuing across the Côte d’Ivoire–Ghana cocoa belt, although distribution was highly variable. Weekly accumulations were broadly in the 25–75 mm range across many producing areas, with locally higher totals, but rainfall-anomaly and percent-of-normal maps showed meaningful deficits across parts of central and eastern Côte d’Ivoire and in several Ghanaian growing areas. The signal is therefore not one of complete dryness, but rather insufficient and poorly distributed rainfall across parts of the core belt. This is broadly consistent with farmer reports cited by Reuters, including very low rainfall around Soubré and below-average conditions in Agboville, Divo, Abengourou, Bongouanou and Yamoussoukro. Reports of immature pods, or cherelles, drying on trees indicate that the rainfall shortfall is beginning to have a localized physiological impact. The most immediate October–December crop flow is still supported by pods that are already well developed, but continued moisture stress would increasingly threaten pod filling and the later January–February portion of the main crop.

Moisture-balance indicators also suggest that rainfall totals alone may overstate the quality of current growing conditions. SPEI has been less constructive than precipitation-only SPI in parts of the cocoa belt, indicating that atmospheric demand is offsetting some of the benefit from recent showers. This matters because cocoa requires regular rainfall rather than isolated heavy events: if intervals between showers lengthen, surface moisture can deteriorate quickly even where cumulative rainfall appears broadly acceptable. NOAA SMOPS surface-soil-moisture data should therefore be viewed as an important confirmation layer, particularly for identifying where rainfall deficits are beginning to translate into actual moisture depletion.

For the coming week, NOAA does not currently signal a broad, high-confidence rainfall recovery across the main Côte d’Ivoire and Ghana cocoa zones. Enhanced rainfall is more clearly indicated farther west across southern Guinea, Sierra Leone and Liberia and farther east toward southern Nigeria, while the core cocoa belt is expected to remain under a more seasonal and potentially patchy rainfall regime. At the same time, NOAA does not classify the principal cocoa-growing regions as experiencing severe abnormal dryness, so the outlook is not yet one of acute drought risk. The key variable will be rainfall frequency and geographical coverage rather than headline totals. Regular showers across central and eastern Côte d’Ivoire and the main Ghanaian growing areas would stabilise moisture conditions and reduce cherelle-loss risk; another week of scattered or below-normal rainfall would deepen the current deficit and raise the probability of stress affecting later main-crop production.

Futures performance

New York cocoa

New York cocoa produced a mixed performance on 4 September. Sep-26 fell sharply by $117 per tonne, or 1.90%, while all of the more actively traded Dec-26 through Jul-27 contracts advanced. Dec-26 and Jul-27 recorded the largest gains at $35 per tonne, equivalent to 0.57% and 0.56%, respectively. Mar-27 gained $29, or 0.46%, while May-27 increased by $28, or 0.44%.

The weakness in Sep-26 should be interpreted cautiously because turnover in the contract was only 44 lots. The broader curve therefore showed a materially firmer performance than the nearby contract alone would suggest.

The active Dec-26 through Jul-27 contracts traded through daily ranges of $140 to $165 per tonne. Despite finishing higher than on 3 September, prices closed only 12.7% to 18.6% above their respective daily lows. Dec-26 traded between $6,149 and $6,314 before finishing at $6,175, while Jul-27 traded between $6,308 and $6,448 and ended at $6,334. The positioning of the closes near the lower end of the daily ranges indicates that a substantial part of the intraday strength was surrendered before the end of the session.

Spread volume declined 5.6% to 15,806 contracts from 16,746 previously. However, spreads represented 63.2% of total futures turnover, up sharply from 50.9% in the previous session. Total futures volume on 4 September was 25,014 contracts.

New York futures curve

The New York curve changed more significantly at the nearby end than across the deferred contracts. Sep-26/Dec-26 moved from a $26 backwardation on 3 September to a $126 contango on 4 September, a $152 swing in the relationship. The move was overwhelmingly driven by the sharp fall in Sep-26 and should be treated cautiously given the extremely limited 44-contract turnover in that maturity.

Beyond the nearby contract, the curve was considerably more stable. Dec-26/Mar-27 contango narrowed from $122 to $116 per tonne, while Mar-27/May-27 contango eased slightly from $45 to $44. May-27/Jul-27 backwardation narrowed from $8 to just $1, leaving the middle of the curve effectively flat between May and July.

May-27 remained the highest-priced contract among the five comparable maturities at $6,335, only $1 above Jul-27. This produces a broad plateau across the May/Jul portion of the curve rather than a pronounced peak.

London cocoa

London cocoa was broadly firmer on 4 September, with six of the seven plotted maturities closing above their 3 September levels. Sep-26 was the only contract to decline, losing £20 per tonne, or 0.45%. Dec-26 was effectively unchanged, gaining £2, or 0.04%, while gains became progressively more evident farther along the curve.

Sep-27 registered the largest increase at £14 per tonne, or 0.31%. May-27, Jul-27 and Dec-27 each gained £11, while Mar-27 advanced £9. The pattern therefore showed relative weakness at the nearby end and modest strength across the deferred contracts.

The actively traded Dec-26 through Jul-27 contracts traded through ranges of £96 to £108 per tonne. Final prices finished only 25.9% to 30.3% above their daily lows. Dec-26 traded between £4,492 and £4,600 before ending at £4,520, while Mar-27 traded between £4,625 and £4,724 and finished at £4,654. May-27 and Jul-27 displayed a similar pattern.

Consequently, although most contracts posted positive day-on-day changes, the intraday structure was less constructive. Prices finished in approximately the lower third of their daily ranges, indicating that stronger levels reached during the session were not maintained into the close.

Total futures volume reached 25,170 contracts. Spread volume accounted for 14,594 contracts, equivalent to 58.0% of total turnover.

London futures curve

The London curve shifted modestly higher across most deferred maturities, while the nearby Sep-26 contract moved lower. As a result, Sep-26/Dec-26 contango widened from £105 to £127 per tonne. Dec-26/Mar-27 contango also increased, from £127 to £134.

The central part of the curve remained comparatively stable. Mar-27/May-27 backwardation narrowed from £4 to £2, while May-27/Jul-27 backwardation was unchanged at £19. Mar-27 therefore remained the peak of the curve at £4,654, just £2 above May-27.

Farther out, Jul-27/Sep-27 backwardation narrowed slightly from £77 to £74, while Sep-27/Dec-27 backwardation widened from £126 to £129. The overall curve therefore retained the same basic configuration: contango into Mar-27 followed by backwardation through the deferred maturities.

The principal change was concentrated at the front of the curve, where Sep-26 weakened relative to Dec-26. Beyond that point, the day-on-day changes in curve structure were comparatively limited.

US–UK Spread

(Dec Contract)

$6,175 − (£4,520 x 1.352$/£) =$64ton (up from $27ton)

Volume and Open Interest

New York cocoa

New York cocoa volume fell to 25,014 contracts on 4 September, down 7,864 contracts, or 23.9%, from 32,878 on 3 September. Turnover was 52.3% below the preceding 20-session average of 52,409 contracts and 51.1% below the 21-session displayed-period average of 51,105.

It was the lowest daily volume in the displayed 21-session window, falling below the previous low of 32,833 contracts recorded on 26 August. Turnover was also 52,400 contracts, or 67.7%, below the period peak of 77,414 on 11 August. Volume has now declined for three consecutive sessions, from 44,119 on 1 September to 40,292 on 2 September, 32,878 on 3 September and 25,014 on 4 September. Participation therefore weakened materially into the end of the week.

The latest available open-interest figure, for 3 September, increased to 177,619 contracts from 176,454 on 2 September, a rise of 1,165 contracts, or 0.7%. Open interest has recovered by 5,564 contracts, or 3.2%, from the 26 August low of 172,055. Nevertheless, it remained 21,246 contracts, or 10.7%, below the 198,865 contracts recorded on 7 August.

New York prices declined broadly on 3 September while open interest increased modestly. That combination is consistent with new positions being established into the decline, including fresh short exposure, rather than the move being driven exclusively by liquidation of existing longs. The increase in open interest was relatively small, however, so the signal should be interpreted as incremental short-building rather than an aggressive expansion in bearish positioning.

London cocoa

London cocoa volume declined to 25,170 contracts on 4 September, down 3,448 contracts, or 12.0%, from 28,618 on 3 September.

The 31 August zero-volume entry has been treated as a non-trading observation when calculating active-session averages. On that basis, 4 September turnover was 10.6% below the average of the preceding active sessions shown, at 28,157 contracts, and 10.1% below the displayed active-session average of 28,008.

Unlike New York, London turnover was not at an extreme low. The 25,170-contract session sat around the middle of the active-session distribution and remained above several August sessions. Nevertheless, it was 39,822 contracts, or 61.3%, below the period peak of 64,992 contracts recorded on 28 August. Volume has also declined sequentially from 44,694 contracts on 1 September to 35,514 on 2 September, 28,618 on 3 September and 25,170 on 4 September, indicating a clear moderation in participation following the late-August volume surge.

The latest available London open interest, for 3 September, increased slightly to 209,825 contracts from 209,500 on 2 September, an increase of 325 contracts, or 0.2%. Open interest has recovered by 1,208 contracts, or 0.6%, from the recent low of 208,617 on 1 September, but remained 6,388 contracts, or 3.0%, below the 216,213 level recorded on 7 August.

London prices also declined across the curve on 3 September while open interest increased marginally. This is consistent with a modest addition of new short exposure during the sell-off, although the 325-contract increase is very small relative to total open interest. The positioning signal is therefore considerably weaker than the price move itself and does not suggest a major influx of new bearish positions.

Commitments of Traders

New York cocoa

New York speculative positioning became materially less bearish in the week to 1 September. Non-commercial traders increased longs by 4,530 contracts to 26,645 while reducing shorts by 2,582 to 37,918. As a result, the non-commercial net short position narrowed by 7,112 contracts, from 18,385 contracts on 25 August to 11,273 contracts on 1 September.

The improvement was therefore driven by both sides of the speculative book: fresh long accumulation and short covering. The net short position fell from approximately 8.1% of open interest to 4.4%, leaving speculative positioning still bearish but substantially closer to neutral.

The largest change in the report, however, came from spread positions. Non-commercial spreads increased by 20,423 contracts to 96,511 and represented 38.1% of total open interest, up from approximately 33.4% a week earlier. Around 80% of the 25,429-contract increase in total open interest can be associated with the increase in non-commercial spreading. Consequently, the sharp rise in headline open interest should not be interpreted as an equally large increase in outright directional conviction.

Total open interest rose from 228,066 to 253,495 contracts, an increase of 25,429 contracts, or 11.1%. Commercial traders added only 364 longs but increased shorts by 7,768 contracts. Their net position consequently declined from +14,065 to +6,661 contracts, a 7,404-contract shift toward the short side.

The positioning signal for New York is therefore moderately bullish from the speculative side. Funds remain net short, but bearish exposure was reduced significantly through a combination of additional longs and fewer shorts. The large increase in spread activity weakens the directional significance of the overall open-interest expansion, while increased commercial selling provides a counterweight to the improving speculative structure.

London cocoa

London showed an even more pronounced improvement in managed-money positioning during the week to 1 September.

Managed-money longs increased by 3,183 contracts, or 55.4%, while shorts fell by 2,603 contracts, or 20.3%. The resulting net short position contracted sharply from 7,101 contracts to only 1,315 contracts.

Managed money was therefore almost flat by 1 September. Its net short exposure declined from approximately 2.4% of total open interest to just 0.5%. Unlike a move driven purely by short covering, the shift contained a substantial fresh-long component, making the repositioning more constructive.

The broader London positioning picture was mixed:

Producer and merchant positioning became more heavily net short. Producer longs fell by 4,461 contracts while shorts increased by 1,391, widening the producer net short to 32,058 contracts. This is consistent with stronger commercial hedging pressure and offsets part of the bullish message coming from managed money.

Swap dealers remained substantially net long at 30,462 contracts, although their net long position declined by 2,922 contracts. Other reportables moved from a small net short to a net long position, while nonreportable traders also became more net long.

Total London open interest declined by 8,813 contracts, from 297,686 to 288,873, a fall of 3.0%. This contrasts sharply with New York, where open interest increased by more than 11%. The decline in London open interest alongside the reduction in managed-money shorts indicates that some of the positioning shift involved position liquidation, but the simultaneous 55% increase in managed-money longs shows that it was not simply short covering.

Exchange Trading Volume

The measure is not a complete regional stock-to-grind ratio, as it includes only exchange-certified cocoa held at U.S. and EU delivery ports and excludes commercial inventories outside the ICE warehouse system. North America NCA grindings cover processors across North America, while ICE U.S. certified stocks are stored at U.S. delivery ports. ECA reports bean usage in European countries and London-certified cocoa is held in European and UK delivery locations.

Readers can explore detailed cocoa market datasets, futures statistics, and historical indicators in the CocoaIntel Data Hub:

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Tuesday Outlook Dec Contract

New York cocoa is likely to begin the next session with a neutral-to-bearish bias, with the market vulnerable to another test of the $6,150–6,100 support area. Short-term momentum remains weak, with price trading below the faster SMAs on the hourly and intraday charts, while MACD has lost momentum and the stochastic remains soft. However, the broader structure is still constructive because price remains above the longer-term SMA150 and SMA200 zones, meaning the current move still looks more like a correction within the wider uptrend than a confirmed trend reversal. If buyers defend $6,100–6,150, the market could stabilise and rebound toward the $6,225–6,250 SMA resistance cluster; a sustained move above that area would improve the technical picture and bring $6,300–6,314 back into focus. Conversely, a decisive break below $6,100, particularly on stronger volume, would weaken the broader structure and increase the probability of a deeper decline toward $6,050–6,000.

If you notice any discrepancies in these figures or have extra information, please email hello@cocoaintel.com or leave a comment – corrections and additional insights are always welcome.