Arabica Advances as Robusta Retreats Intraday and Brazil’s August Export Outlook Weakens (10 August 2026)
Arabica outperformed Robusta during Monday’s session as the market assessed a weak start to Brazil’s August exports, historically low ICE inventories and continuing uncertainty over the quality and timing of new-crop supply.
September Arabica’s first recorded trade was 335.00 cents per pound, while its final trade was slightly higher at 335.20 cents. September Robusta moved in the opposite direction, declining from an initial trade of US$3,830 per tonne to a final trade of US$3,810.
Relative to Friday’s final trades, both contracts remained modestly higher. Arabica increased from 333.50 cents, while Robusta rose from US$3,802. Monday’s intraday performance nevertheless clearly favoured Arabica.
Arabica recovers strongly from the session low
September Arabica traded through a wide 12.15-cent range, reaching a high of 338.90 cents and a low of 326.75 cents before recovering to 335.20 cents by the final trade.
The contract encountered resistance below 339 cents but attracted buying interest after falling beneath 327 cents. It recovered 8.45 cents from the session low, indicating that buyers remained active despite pressure from a stronger US dollar and improving harvest conditions in Brazil.
September volume reached 22,061 lots, while total Coffee C volume amounted to 55,099 lots, down from 58,981 on Friday. Spread volume remained substantial at 38,299 lots as index funds continued transferring positions from September into later contracts.
The September–December inversion widened slightly to 20.00 cents from 19.85 cents on Friday. The September–March premium narrowed marginally to 29.50 cents from 29.75 cents, while the December–March spread declined to 9.50 cents from 9.90 cents.
The curve therefore remained strongly inverted, reflecting the considerable premium attached to immediately available Arabica coffee.
Certified Arabica inventories reach another low
ICE-certified Arabica inventories declined by another 1,499 bags to 242,673 bags. This marked the 33rd consecutive trading session of falling stocks and established another historical low.
Coffee awaiting certification totalled 4,530 bags, including 3,890 bags from Brazil and 640 bags from Burundi. Even if all pending coffee is approved, the volume would replace only a small proportion of the stocks withdrawn during the extended decline.
The inventory situation remains an important source of support for nearby Arabica contracts. The market is also approaching the September delivery-notification period and the expiration of September options, increasing the potential for further volatility in the contract and its calendar spreads.
Robusta slips as nearby spreads weaken
September Robusta traded between US$3,764 and US$3,854 per tonne before recording a final trade at US$3,810, US$20 below its first recorded trade.
Total London volume reached 19,121 lots, compared with 19,576 on Friday. September volume increased to 4,928 lots from 4,217, while November remained the most actively traded contract with 9,040 lots.
Nearby Robusta spreads weakened noticeably. The September–November premium narrowed to US$11 per tonne from US$21 on Friday, while September–January declined to US$33 from US$42. November–January widened slightly to US$22 from US$21.
The contraction in the September premiums indicated less immediate pressure at the front of the Robusta curve than in New York Arabica.
After converting Robusta into cents per pound, the Arabica premium over Robusta widened to approximately 162.4 cents from around 161.0 cents on Friday.
Brazil’s August export pace slows sharply
Brazilian coffee shipments totalled 354,191 bags during the first ten days of August, according to Cecafé. This represented a reported decline of 16.6% and an average export pace of approximately 35,419 bags per day.
Arabica accounted for 313,950 bags, while Robusta shipments reached only 22,860 bags. Soluble coffee exports totalled 17,296 bags.
Requests for certificates of origin provided an even weaker indication of the forward export pipeline. Applications covering August shipments declined by 43.3% to 458,991 bags, including:
- 362,456 bags of Arabica
- 34,113 bags of Robusta
- 62,422 bags of soluble coffee
Based on the early-month pace, August exports are projected at approximately 1.24 million bags. Although the estimate could change as additional vessels are loaded and documentation is processed, the current projection points to an exceptionally weak month and could represent one of the lowest monthly shipment totals on record.
Industry contacts have indicated that some traders may be requesting longer-than-usual extensions to their loading schedules because of difficulties obtaining coffee that meets contractual quality requirements.
The slowdown therefore appears to reflect more than shipping logistics. Newly harvested beans must still pass through drying, processing, grading and quality preparation before they can be delivered against export commitments.
Delayed Arabica harvest restricts availability
Rabobank estimated that Brazil’s coffee harvest was 76% complete at the end of July. Robusta harvesting was considerably more advanced at approximately 98%, while Arabica progress remained at around 65%.
The slower Arabica harvest is delaying the arrival of new-crop coffee in commercial and export channels. Recent rainfall has also affected coffee remaining on the trees or already on the ground, creating uncertainty about the quality of some harvested beans.
The principal risk may be to the quality composition of the crop rather than total production. Standard and lower-grade coffee may become increasingly available as processing advances, while exporters and roasters requiring specialty or premium Arabica could continue to face procurement difficulties.
Some companies in the Robusta sector have also reported weaker production in individual areas and may revise their crop estimates. Rabobank has indicated, however, that part of this weakness had already been incorporated into its assessment following field visits in Espírito Santo and Rondônia.
Brazil exported 3.06 million bags in June, slightly below the 3.09 million bags shipped in May but 17.2% above the 2.61 million bags exported in June 2025.
Cumulative exports during the first half of 2026 reached 17.8 million bags, down by 8.2% from 19.4 million bags during the corresponding period of 2025.
Shipments are expected to recover as harvesting and processing progress. The timing of that recovery remains critical, however, because the international market is operating with extremely limited certified Arabica inventories.
Drier weather helps harvesting
Drier conditions forecast across Brazil’s main coffee regions should improve harvesting, drying and processing during the week.
A stronger US dollar against the Brazilian real may also encourage producer selling by increasing the local-currency value of dollar-denominated coffee. Together, these factors could improve the flow of beans into commercial and export channels during the second half of August.
The main question is whether improved weather will produce a meaningful increase in export-ready coffee or primarily increase the availability of lower-quality beans.
Premature flowering creates uncertainty for the next crop
A separate concern has emerged in Carmo do Rio Claro in southern Minas Gerais, where coffee plantations began flowering while harvesting was still underway.
Flowering in the region normally becomes more widespread between September and October. The premature development appears to have followed a humid winter and subsequent periods of warmer weather, which stimulated dormant flower buds.
Early flowering does not automatically imply a reduction in production. Its effect on the next crop will depend on rainfall and temperatures during the coming weeks.
Adequate moisture could support successful fruit setting. A return to prolonged drought and high temperatures, however, could result in flower losses and lower productive potential.
Uneven flowering may also cause cherries to develop and mature at different times, complicating crop management and harvesting during the next season.
The reports currently appear localised, and it remains too early to quantify any effect on the 2027 crop. Wider premature flowering across southern Minas Gerais would nevertheless introduce an additional production risk.
