Arabica Coffee Rebounds Sharply as Tight Stocks and Delayed Brazilian Harvest Support Prices (31 July 2026)

Arabica coffee futures ended the week with strong gains on ICE Futures US, supported by technical buying, declining certified stocks, delayed harvesting in Brazil and continued uncertainty surrounding global bean availability.

The September Arabica contract closed Friday at 332.10 cents per pound, advancing 905 points, or approximately 2.8%, during the session. The contract traded in a wide range between 320.90 and 334.40 cents per pound and finished the week 5.83% higher.

December Arabica gained 695 points, settling at 314.65 cents per pound.

Trading initially opened on a firm note, with September at 325.75 cents per pound. Prices subsequently came under selling pressure and fell to the session low of 320.90 cents. Buyers then returned aggressively, pushing the contract through the psychologically important 330-cent level and toward an intraday high of 334.40 cents.

The recovery was primarily driven by technical factors, with chart-based buying becoming more effective after the market held above key support levels. Position rollovers also remained active as liquidity continued to shift from the September contract into December.

September open interest stood at approximately 54,000 contracts, compared with around 62,000 contracts in December, reflecting the approaching delivery period and the ongoing migration of speculative and commercial positions along the futures curve.

Certified stocks continue to decline

A central source of support remains the sharp contraction in ICE-certified Arabica inventories.

Certified stocks fell by another 2,025 bags on Friday to 264,179 bags, marking the 27th consecutive session of declines. The cumulative reduction during July exceeded 113,000 bags, reinforcing concerns regarding the volume of coffee immediately available for delivery against the exchange.

The continued drawdown has become increasingly important for the market because it limits the buffer available to absorb supply disruptions or stronger-than-expected physical demand.

Traders also reported that assessments of global coffee availability have become less comfortable. Recent rainfall in producing regions, uncertainty regarding future weather patterns and concern over the potential development of El Niño conditions have contributed to a more cautious outlook for global supply.

In Brazil’s physical Arabica market, trading remained slow despite strong buying interest across several quality categories. According to the Carvalhaes Office, sharp daily fluctuations on ICE have made price formation and the completion of physical transactions more difficult.

Producers concerned about the final harvest result have been reluctant to accept current buyer bids, selling mainly the quantities required to meet immediate financial commitments. Indicative prices for higher-quality coffee in southern Minas Gerais remained close to R$1,910 per 60-kilogram bag.

Brazilian Arabica harvest remains behind schedule

Brazil’s 2026/27 coffee harvest reached 78% of expected production by July 29, according to Safras & Mercado. This represented an increase of five percentage points from the previous week.

Despite the progress, harvesting remained well behind both last year and the recent historical average. At the same point in 2025, approximately 90% of the crop had been collected, while the average for the five years from 2021 to 2025 was 85%.

Rainfall has disrupted the removal of coffee from fields and delayed drying operations, particularly in Arabica-producing regions.

The canephora harvest, which includes conillon and robusta coffee, was close to completion at 97%. This compared with 98% one year earlier and was slightly above the five-year average of 96%.

In Espírito Santo, Brazil’s principal conillon-producing state, harvesting reached approximately 96%.

The Arabica harvest showed a considerably larger delay. Only 69% of expected Arabica production had been collected by July 29, compared with 85% during the corresponding period of 2025 and a five-year average of 78%.

The slower Arabica harvest is contributing to uncertainty regarding crop quality, bean availability and the timing of new-crop deliveries to the domestic and export markets.

Funds expand net-long exposure

The latest Commitments of Traders report from the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission showed that large speculative funds increased their net-long position in Arabica futures by 7.22% during the week ended July 28.

Managed-money participants held:

• 46,863 long futures positions
• 18,949 short futures positions
• A resulting net-long position of approximately 27,914 contracts

One week earlier, funds held a net-long position of 26,034 contracts, consisting of 46,670 longs and 20,636 shorts.

The increase was driven primarily by short covering. Over the previous seven weeks, speculative short positions declined from 44,375 contracts to approximately 18,949 contracts, a reduction of more than 57%.

Total open interest increased by 2.11%, rising from 220,681 to 225,341 contracts.

Commercial participants moved further in the opposite direction. Their net-short position increased by 2.93% to 29,135 contracts, with 73,990 long positions and 103,125 short positions.

The positioning data indicate that speculative sentiment has become increasingly constructive, although the growth in commercial selling suggests that producers, exporters and industry participants are using the price recovery to increase hedging activity.

Brazilian robusta exports accelerate

Brazilian coffee shipments also provided an important signal regarding international supply.

According to Cecafé, Brazil exported 2,501,495 bags by July 28, representing a 12.7% increase based on the reported daily shipment rate.

The total consisted of:

• 1,543,031 bags of Arabica
• 700,603 bags of robusta
• 257,961 bags of soluble coffee

Robusta shipments were particularly strong, increasing by 54.6%.

The expansion of Brazilian robusta exports is helping offset restricted availability from some Asian origins. However, export volumes remain constrained by strong domestic demand for conillon and robusta beans within Brazil.

London robusta closes nearly unchanged

Robusta futures on ICE Futures Europe ended Friday with only modest changes.

The September contract gained $2, closing at $3,782 per metric ton, while November advanced $14 to settle at $3,775 per ton.

September traded between $3,753 and $3,804 per ton after opening at $3,785. The September–November spread closed at approximately $7 per ton, leaving the nearby market in a slight inverse structure.

September trading volume reached 8,330 contracts, compared with 8,590 contracts in November.

The September position increased by only 0.05% during Friday’s session and ended the week approximately 0.67% higher.

The London market remained largely driven by technical trading and limited nearby supply. Asian producing countries are currently between major crop cycles, while certified and readily deliverable robusta availability remains relatively contained.

Market participants are also monitoring logistical risks affecting trade routes between producing regions and Western Europe, particularly amid continuing geopolitical uncertainty in the Middle East.

Demand indicators remain constructive

Coffee-sector corporate results provided an additional indication that consumer demand remains resilient.

Starbucks reported quarterly results above market expectations and raised its fiscal-year outlook for the second time. For the quarter ended June 28, reported global revenue reached approximately $9.3 billion.

Excluding the effect of the company’s China transaction, comparable sales at stores open for at least 13 months increased 7.9%, exceeding the approximately 6% growth expected by analysts.

International comparable-store sales increased 5.7%, while the company added a net 175 stores, bringing its global network to more than 41,000 locations.

Net income reached approximately $1.05 billion, compared with $558.3 million during the corresponding period of the previous year. Adjusted earnings were reported at 85 cents per share, above market expectations of approximately 66 cents.

The results support the view that retail coffee demand remains relatively firm despite elevated raw-material prices and broader pressure on consumers.