September Arabica futures rose to their highest closing level since July 9 on Wednesday, with the New York market drawing support from another decline in certified stocks, firm nearby spreads and uncertainty surrounding coffee shipments from Colombia after a major earthquake disrupted transport links to the port of Buenaventura.

The September contract gained 4.35 cents, or 1.29%, to settle at 340.10 cents per pound. It traded between 333.40 and 342.05 cents during the session. Volume reached 44,786 lots, down 5,553 lots from Tuesday, when the contract moved through a considerably wider range.

The advance was therefore significant, but it did not occur on unusually heavy turnover. Wednesday was the penultimate session of the index-fund rollover window, and volume remained below the roughly 50,000-lot average reported during the roll. The final tranche of index-linked September positions, estimated at about 10,000 lots, was expected to move forward on Thursday, August 13, before the market turns to the expiration of September options on Friday. Those positioning events can influence both outright prices and calendar spreads, making it important not to interpret every short-term move as a change in physical fundamentals.

Even with that qualification, the New York structure continued to signal pressure at the front of the curve. September's premium over December widened marginally to 20.15 cents per pound. ICE-certified Arabica stocks also fell by another 1,553 bags to 240,285 bags, extending their decline to a 35th consecutive session. A further 4,530 bags were awaiting certification, but that pending volume remained small compared with the scale and persistence of the recent drawdown.

London Robusta moved in the opposite direction. September closed $13 per tonne lower, or 0.34%, at $3,769 per tonne, on volume of 25,141 lots. Its nearby curve nevertheless remained firmly backwardated: September finished at a $17-per-tonne premium to November and a $36 premium to January.

The strength of those London spreads should also be read in the context of contract rolling, particularly because the exchange's certified Robusta inventory has moved higher rather than lower. Stocks exceeded 4,350 lots, equivalent to approximately 43,520 tonnes, their highest level in almost five months. With Arabica rising and Robusta easing on an equivalent-price basis, New York's premium over London widened to 169.15 cents per pound from 164.20 cents in the previous session.

Colombia Adds Delivery Risk, Not Yet a Confirmed Supply Loss

The more immediate fundamental concern came from Colombia, where a magnitude 7.4 earthquake on Monday damaged roads and triggered landslides along routes connecting coffee-producing areas, regional warehouses and Buenaventura on the Pacific coast.

The disruption is important because roughly two-thirds of Colombia's coffee exports are reported to pass through Buenaventura. Movement was restricted in parts of the coffee belt, while loading and access at the port were limited as infrastructure inspections took place. The latest information on Wednesday, however, pointed to a gradual reopening of sections considered safe. Coffee continued to leave Colombia through other ports, including Cartagena and Santa Marta, although those terminals normally handle a smaller share of the country's export programme.

This distinction matters. Colombia has not stopped exporting coffee nationwide, and the earthquake has not yet produced evidence of a large physical loss of beans. The immediate risk is that damaged roads, limited access and constrained port operations delay deliveries if normal logistics are not restored quickly.

Colombia typically exports around 1 million bags per month. Industry estimates suggest that a full week of severely restricted movement could place roughly 250,000 bags of scheduled trade at risk, involving more than 600 vehicles and over 1,000 containers. These figures illustrate the possible scale of a prolonged bottleneck; they do not mean that this volume has already been stranded.

Exporters are examining alternative routes to Caribbean terminals, but rerouting is neither immediate nor costless. It depends on road conditions, available trucks, terminal capacity and the location of coffee already prepared for shipment. The earthquake has also affected producing communities directly, with initial assessments identifying more than 150 coffee-growing families in Quindío and temporary closures of several local coffee institutions and agricultural supply facilities for structural checks.

For the international market, Colombia's importance goes beyond volume. The country is a major supplier of washed mild Arabica used in blends that require particular quality and cup characteristics. Brazil has far greater production capacity, but Brazilian coffees are not an automatic one-for-one substitute for every Colombian contract. Buyers may be able to adjust blends or origins, yet doing so depends on specifications, availability and price. So far, there is no confirmed evidence of widespread contract transfers or a material shift in demand from Colombia to Brazil.

The Colombian situation should therefore be treated as a logistics risk rather than a proven long-term supply loss. A rapid reopening of the Buenaventura corridor would remove part of the associated risk premium. A disruption lasting several weeks would have a more meaningful effect on shipment timing and availability of Colombian milds.

Brazil's Harvest and Shipments Provide a Counterweight

While Colombia introduced uncertainty, the latest Brazilian indicators pointed to increasing physical availability.

Cecafé reported that August shipments had reached 1,085,081 bags by August 12. The total comprised 774,247 bags of Arabica, 246,763 bags of Robusta and 64,071 bags of soluble coffee. The council said the total was 109.9% higher on its reported comparison basis, although the release did not identify that basis. Requests for certificates of origin related to July shipments reached 1,180,855 bags, a separate indicator that should not be treated as equivalent to completed exports.

Harvesting is also advancing. Cooxupé, Brazil's largest coffee cooperative, said its members had collected 74.6% of their 2026 crop by August 7, up from 67.3% one week earlier. Progress remained behind the 80.4% recorded at the same point last year, but the weekly increase shows that new-crop coffee is continuing to move into the supply chain.

At the national level, an IBGE estimate released in June placed Brazil's 2026 coffee crop at 66 million 60-kilogram bags, 14.7% above the previous year, including 44.4 million bags of Arabica. The national estimate and Cooxupé's regional harvest percentage measure different things, but together they reinforce the view that Brazil can provide a broader supply cushion even if it cannot immediately replace specific Colombian qualities.

This leaves the market with two competing signals. Falling certified Arabica stocks and uncertainty in Colombia are supportive for nearby New York prices, while Brazil's advancing harvest and export programme argue against treating the disruption as evidence of a general shortage across all origins and coffee types.

Funcafé Dispute Raises a Domestic Financing Question

Brazil's coffee sector is also challenging the government's treatment of resources held by Funcafé, the Coffee Economy Defense Fund.

The National Coffee Council, or CNC, says R$295 million was withdrawn in May and another R$455 million was redirected under Measure 1464. The two specified amounts total R$750 million, which the organisation has characterised more broadly as approximately R$800 million. According to the CNC, the resources derive from the coffee sector and are needed for producer financing, research and longer-term investment.

The government's reported position is that the money represented income earned by the fund. The CNC disputes that interpretation and has approached Brazil's Federal Court of Accounts and other public bodies in an effort to recover the resources.

At this stage, the disagreement is better understood as an institutional and financing risk than as a direct driver of Wednesday's futures rally. No immediate reduction in production or exports has been demonstrated. Its market relevance would increase if a lasting loss of Funcafé resources restricted access to credit or weakened investment across the sector.

EU Residue Debate Points to a Longer-Term Trade Risk

A separate policy issue is developing in Europe, where possible changes to pesticide-residue limits could alter the cost and availability of imported agricultural products.

Research by the European Commission's Joint Research Centre examined a stringent scenario in which maximum residue limits for certain hazardous active substances not approved in the EU were reduced to the limit of quantification for imported food and feed. The assessment covered 18 active substances, 235 products and 86 exporting countries.

In the study's most severe scenario, agricultural imports into the EU declined by 41%, while the model produced an increase of as much as 332% for coffee prices. These figures are stress-test results, not forecasts of what consumers should expect. The same analysis found that the estimated import decline fell to 8% and ultimately to 0.4% when exporters were assumed to adapt their production practices, depending on the cost of doing so.

For coffee, the eventual effect would depend on the substances covered, the countries and farms exposed, the transition period, exporters' ability to comply and whether alternative supplies met EU requirements. The issue deserves attention as a potential trade and consumer-cost risk, but it should not be presented as an explanation for the latest futures move.

Near-Term Outlook

The next signals for Arabica will come from the pace of the reopening around Buenaventura, the condition of roads from Colombia's producing regions, further changes in ICE-certified stocks and the completion of this week's index roll and options expiration. Brazilian harvest progress and shipment momentum will determine how much supply-side relief is visible outside the Colombian washed-coffee segment.

For now, the balance remains supportive for nearby Arabica: deliverable stocks are still shrinking and Colombian logistics have not fully normalised. But the disruption has yet to become a confirmed loss of export supply, while improving Brazilian flows and larger Robusta inventories provide a meaningful counterweight. The Funcafé dispute and possible EU residue changes add to the sector's risk map, although their importance lies in financing and trade policy rather than in the immediate direction of futures prices.