Arabica Retreats From 348.80 but Closes Higher as Nearby Supply Risks Support New York (11 August 2026)
Tuesday's settlement looked stronger than the shape of the session. September arabica in New York settled at 335.75 cents per pound, up 3.45 cents, or 1.04%, after trading across a wide 332.50–348.80-cent range. Volume reached 50,341 contracts, 771 more than on Monday.
The contract pushed through 345 cents and briefly reached 348.80, bringing the psychologically important 350-cent area back into view. It could not hold the breakout, however. The settlement was just 3.25 cents above the day's low and 13.05 cents below the high, leaving it in the lower fifth of the intraday range. The gain was therefore real, but the close showed that buyers had not established control above resistance.
According to StoneX's 11 August market report, limited origin selling helped prices advance early in the session. Buy stops above the 347-cent area then accelerated the move to 348.80. The rally lost momentum at the high, and selling intensified as the Brazilian real weakened from approximately R$5.09 to R$5.20 per US dollar. A softer real can improve the local-currency return available to Brazilian exporters, making producer and origin selling more attractive when New York rises.
Nearby tightness remains visible through the index roll
The September/December spread traded between 19.10 and 21.25 cents before settling at a backwardation of 20.05 cents, wider than Monday's 18.90-cent close. September/March ended at 29.45 cents, while December/March closed at 9.40 cents.
The move deserves attention because it occurred during the index-fund roll, when long positions are typically sold in September and re-established in December. That flow would normally place relative pressure on the front contract. September's ability to strengthen against December suggests that demand for nearby coverage remained firm, although roll-related activity can make spread signals noisier than usual. More than 20,000 contracts were reportedly still due to be rolled by Thursday, leaving scope for further volatility.
The physical delivery picture offered additional support. ICE-certified arabica stocks fell by another 835 bags to 241,838 bags, extending the decline to a 34th consecutive trading session and taking inventories to a two-and-a-half-year low.
At the same time, 2,610 bags of Brazilian coffee submitted for certification failed ICE grading. The rejection does not remove those bags from the wider commercial market, but it means they did not replenish the exchange's immediately deliverable supply. A further 4,530 bags were awaiting certification.
London weakness widens the arabica premium
London robusta moved in the opposite direction. September settled US$24 lower at US$3,782 per tonne, a decline of 0.63%, after trading between US$3,761 and US$3,870. Volume increased to 24,578 contracts from 18,814 on Monday.
London's nearby structure also softened. The September/November premium narrowed to US$4 per tonne from US$11, contrasting with the firmer September/December backwardation in New York. After converting the London contract into cents per pound, the New York–London price premium widened to 164.20 cents from 159.65 cents in the previous session.
That divergence is important: Tuesday was not a broad-based coffee rally. Strength was concentrated in arabica, where exchange stocks and Colombian supply logistics were more immediate concerns. ICE robusta inventories, by contrast, rose to 4,352 lots, their highest level in nearly five months, adding pressure to London.
Colombia creates a logistics shock, not yet a confirmed crop loss
Reports from Colombia added an early risk premium after the earthquake disrupted the country's western transport network. Buenaventura, the principal Pacific outlet for Colombian coffee, became effectively inaccessible because of road blockages along the Cali–Buenaventura corridor, while terminal operations were temporarily suspended.
Gustavo Gómez, president of the Colombian Coffee Exporters Association, told Global Coffee Report that export operations were largely paused and that there was no firm timetable for full road access to be restored. Rerouting cargo through Cartagena or Santa Marta is possible, but longer distances and limited truck availability constrain how quickly exporters can shift volumes to the Caribbean coast.
For now, the clearest risk is logistical rather than agricultural. Exporters and processors were still assessing damage, but no major structural losses at coffee mills had been reported. Power cuts, connectivity problems, blocked roads and disruption to workers were the immediate obstacles. Even after access is restored, accumulated coffee could create congestion as delayed shipments move toward the ports.
This distinction matters. A temporary interruption can tighten prompt availability and delay shipments without reducing the size of Colombia's crop. The market initially priced the uncertainty aggressively, but part of that premium faded as traders concluded that direct damage to producing areas was more limited than first feared.
Brazil's export recovery offers the counterweight
Brazil supplied the session's bearish counterargument. The country exported 3.030 million 60-kilogram bags of coffee in July, 9.9% more than a year earlier, according to Cecafé's monthly report. Export revenue nevertheless fell 13.2% to US$903.9 million.
The July improvement has not yet erased the weaker start to the year. Shipments from January through July totalled 20.897 million bags, down 5.9%, while revenue declined 13.1% to US$7.449 billion. The composition was especially uneven: arabica exports fell 16.6% to 14.987 million bags, whereas canephora shipments surged 73.5% to 3.387 million bags.
The distinction between the monthly headline and the year-to-date mix is important. Brazil is beginning to move more coffee, but the recovery in arabica flows remains incomplete. Cecafé expects shipments to accelerate during the second half of August as harvesting advances. Continued port bottlenecks and the willingness of well-capitalised growers to sell selectively, however, could produce a measured recovery rather than an immediate wave of supply.
Weather and consumer signals add a longer-term layer
In southern Minas Gerais, growers around Carmo do Rio Claro have reported unusually early flowering while parts of the current crop are still being harvested. A humid winter followed by warmer conditions appears to have stimulated flower buds ahead of the usual September–October window. This is a local warning signal rather than evidence of a broad production loss: its importance for the next crop will depend on whether follow-up moisture is sufficient to support fruit setting.
Further down the supply chain, Brazilian retail coffee prices continued to retreat. Ground coffee fell 2.45% in July, according to the official IBGE consumer-price report, and was 17.2% lower over 12 months. Prices remain elevated relative to the period before the exceptional increases of 2024 and 2025, but the recent decline should gradually ease pressure on household demand.
Asian consumption continues to evolve in a different direction. South Korean government data valued the country's coffee-products market at 3.7 trillion won in 2024, with roasted-bean sales gaining share from traditional processed blends. Separately, South Korean chain Ediya opened its first outlet in Laos and plans further cooperation with its local franchise partner in Cambodia and Myanmar, according to Yonhap. These are longer-term demand indicators rather than explanations for Tuesday's futures move, but they point to continued development of coffee consumption across Asia.
Market outlook
The New York market enters the next session with two competing messages. Immediately available arabica remains tight: certified stocks are falling, the Brazilian coffee presented for grading was rejected, Colombia faces a serious export bottleneck and the nearby spread remains firm. At the same time, the failure to sustain prices near 349 cents, the weaker Brazilian real and the prospect of faster Brazilian shipments show that sellers are still prepared to respond to rallies.
The first test is whether September can regain 345 cents, establish support above it and then challenge 350, rather than merely trade there intraday. The completion of the index roll, movements in the Brazilian real, new ICE grading results, restoration of the Buenaventura corridor and Brazil's export pace during the second half of August will determine whether Tuesday's advance develops into a durable breakout or remains another volatile rejection from resistance.
