Arabica Tests Critical Support as Spreads Weaken and Weather Risks Return (16 September 2026)
Coffee futures remained under pressure on Wednesday, with both New York Arabica and London Robusta ending lower as the market extended a sharp multi-week correction. The decline was accompanied by softer calendar spreads, higher certified stocks and stronger Brazilian shipment data, all signals that reduced some of the immediate concern about nearby supply.
Weather, however, is becoming a more prominent counterweight. Hail damaged coffee areas in Minas Gerais, while forecasts for Vietnam’s Central Highlands point to several days of heavy rain and potentially severe storms. The combination leaves the market technically fragile but increasingly vulnerable to a rebound if crop concerns intensify.
New York Arabica reaches a 75-day low
The December 2026 Arabica contract settled at 281.65 cents per pound, down 2.10 cents, or 0.7%, after trading between 277.05 and 285.45 cents. Turnover reached 25,976 lots, up by 1,876 lots from Tuesday.
The session low briefly pushed the contract through support near 280.40 and 277.15 cents before prices recovered into the close. December has now lost 53.85 cents—or about 16%—over the past 15 trading sessions, falling from 335.50 cents on August 25 to its lowest level in 75 days.
Volatility remains unusually high. During the past eight sessions, the contract has moved through a range of almost 24 cents, while daily fluctuations have averaged close to 10 cents. That price action reflects a market still searching for a stable floor after an accelerated liquidation.
The first area to watch is around 275 cents. A sustained move below that level would increase the risk of a deeper decline towards the 264–257-cent support zone. At the same time, momentum indicators are deeply oversold, making the market susceptible to a sharp corrective rally. A recovery above 280 cents would help stabilise sentiment, although the 300-cent area remains an important barrier.
December/March spread retreats from recent highs
Weakness was also evident in the Arabica calendar structure. The December/March spread traded as low as 7.35 cents during the week and stood at 8.20 cents on Wednesday, compared with 8.80 cents a day earlier. This moved the spread towards the lower end of its recent consolidation range.
The December/May spread narrowed more sharply, falling to 11.35 cents from 13.60 cents, while March/May edged up to 3.05 cents from 3.00 cents. The softer nearby spreads suggest that some of the urgency previously attached to prompt supply has eased, although the curve remains inverted.
Activity in the expiring September contract is now minimal. With its last trading day scheduled for Monday, September 21, open interest has fallen to 41 lots. One additional delivery notice was registered on Wednesday, bringing the cumulative total for the delivery period to 226.
Robusta follows Arabica lower
London Robusta also declined. The November contract closed $51 per tonne lower at $3,430, after ranging from $3,405 to $3,521. Trading volume rose to 22,313 lots, an increase of 2,775 lots from the previous session.
The contract settled just below support around $3,434, extending the bearish signal that followed last week’s rejection near the 200-day moving average at approximately $3,540.
Robusta spreads weakened alongside the outright market. November/January narrowed to $28 per tonne from $31, November/March dropped to $40 from $51, and January/March fell to $12 from $20. The price differential between New York and London also eased to 124.85 cents per pound from 125.85 cents.
Certified stocks continue to recover
ICE-certified Arabica stocks increased by 15,833 bags to 233,479 bags. A total of 16,210 bags passed grading, while 2,960 bags of Brazilian coffee were rejected. Close to 49,000 bags remain pending certification.
The inflow of newly graded coffee adds to the short-term bearish tone by rebuilding exchange availability from a low base. The pace of further approvals—and the origin and location of those stocks—will be important in determining whether this becomes a sustained recovery or only a temporary increase.
Brazilian shipments accelerate in September
Brazil’s export flow is providing another source of near-term supply pressure. Cecafé data showed shipments of roughly 1.45 million bags through September 16, representing an increase of about 10% on the comparable pace.
Arabica accounted for approximately 1.06 million bags, Robusta for 313,000 bags and soluble coffee for about 76,000 bags. Requests for certificates of origin exceeded 2.07 million bags, up more than 47%, indicating that shipment activity could remain strong during the second half of the month.
Certificate requests do not translate immediately into completed exports, but their rapid increase points to a substantial pipeline of coffee being prepared for international shipment.
Hail damages farms in Minas Gerais
The improving flow of Brazilian coffee contrasts with renewed concern over future production. Hail struck coffee-growing areas in the Cerrado region of Minas Gerais on Tuesday, with significant damage reported around Patrocínio. The impact appears to be localised, but farms suffering severe damage may need more than one crop cycle to recover fully.
Brazil’s National Institute of Meteorology issued a yellow storm alert covering all municipalities in Espírito Santo as well as parts of Minas Gerais, Rio de Janeiro and southern Bahia. The warning, valid into Thursday morning, highlighted the risk of further hail, strong wind and heavy rain.
It is too early to quantify crop losses. The immediate market question is whether the event was isolated or forms part of a broader period of damaging weather across producing areas.
Severe-weather risk builds in Vietnam
Vietnam, the world’s largest Robusta producer, is also facing unsettled conditions. Forecasts for the Central and Southern Highlands call for moderate to heavy rainfall and scattered thunderstorms from September 18 to 21, with locally very heavy precipitation possible.
Warnings covering September 16–26 also identify risks from lightning, hail, strong wind and isolated tornadoes. Intense rainfall could produce flash flooding in smaller rivers, urban flooding in low-lying areas and landslides on vulnerable slopes.
Rainfall can be beneficial ahead of crop development, but excessive precipitation close to harvest may disrupt fieldwork, affect cherry quality and slow the movement of coffee. The consequences will depend on the location, duration and intensity of the storms.
