Brazil Coffee Export Pipeline Builds as Cerrado Arabica Harvest Reaches 99% (14 September 2026)
Brazil’s coffee export flow is showing signs of strengthening in September even as shipment data remain below last year’s pace. Government customs figures indicate a sharp increase in green coffee exports during the opening weeks of the month, while Cecafé data show slower physical shipments but a sizeable volume of coffee already progressing through the certification process. At the same time, the Arabica harvest in the Cerrado Mineiro region is effectively complete, shifting attention from the current crop toward early flowering and conditions for the next production cycle.
Secex Data Point to Strong Green Coffee Exports
Brazilian green coffee exports reached approximately 107,900 tonnes during the first eight working days of September, equivalent to around 1.8 million 60-kg bags, according to data from Brazil’s Secretariat of Foreign Trade, Secex.
The average daily export pace was approximately 13,500 tonnes, around 51.5% higher than during the comparable period a year earlier. Export revenue reached roughly US$584.6 million, or about US$73.1 million per working day.
The strong start follows elevated Brazilian export activity in recent months and indicates that substantial volumes of the recently harvested crop are continuing to move into international channels.
The pace is important because September sits close to the transition between the completion of Brazil’s harvest and the period when the market begins to assess how quickly the crop is being commercialized and shipped abroad. The Secex numbers suggest that availability for export remains significant despite concerns about domestic stocks and the size of the crop.
Cecafé Shipments Still Running Below Last Year
Cecafé figures present a more cautious picture of actual shipment activity.
As of September 14, total Brazilian coffee shipments had reached 1,009,416 bags, down 12.7% from the comparable period last year. The average shipment rate stood at approximately 72,100 bags per day.
Arabica remained the largest component, with 742,186 bags shipped during the month. Robusta and Conilon shipments reached 217,825 bags, while soluble coffee accounted for a further 49,405 bags.
The apparent difference between Secex and Cecafé should be viewed primarily as a timing issue rather than evidence that one dataset is necessarily contradicting the other. Secex customs statistics and Cecafé shipment reporting capture different stages of the export process, meaning discrepancies can be substantial during the middle of a month before cargo registrations, documentation and vessel departures are fully reconciled.
Certification Requests Suggest More Coffee Is Waiting to Move
Cecafé’s certificate-of-origin data provide an important indication of what may be coming next.
Requests for September shipments had reached 1,642,675 bags, up 30.8% from the corresponding period, substantially exceeding the coffee already reported as shipped.
Arabica accounted for 1,150,091 bags of certificate requests, while Robusta reached 398,986 bags and soluble coffee approximately 92,700 bags.
The difference between certified or requested volumes and completed shipments exceeds 630,000 bags, suggesting that a meaningful quantity of coffee remains within the export pipeline.
Not all certificate requests translate immediately into shipments, and some cargoes can move into a later reporting period. Nevertheless, the sizeable gap indicates that the current Cecafé shipment total may understate the amount of coffee being prepared for export.
Arabica is particularly notable. Around 1.15 million bags have already entered the certification process compared with roughly 742,000 bags reported as shipped, leaving a considerable volume potentially available to move later in September.
Cerrado Mineiro Arabica Harvest Reaches 99%
The strong export pipeline is developing as harvesting winds down in one of Brazil’s most important Arabica-producing regions.
Expocacer reported that the Arabica harvest in the Cerrado Mineiro area under its coverage had reached 99% by September 11, with approximately 90% of production already processed.
The cooperative reported an average conversion of around 455 liters of harvested coffee per 60-kg bag of processed coffee, placing the result among the better levels recorded in recent years.
Only a limited number of fields remain unfinished, meaning further increases in the regional harvest percentage will now be relatively small.
Work during the final phase has increasingly centered on coffee that fell from the trees before collection. Expocacer estimates that approximately 30% of total harvested volume involved coffee collected from the ground, of which around 80% has already been recovered.
The higher share of ground coffee has also affected processing results, with the average sorting rate estimated at roughly 21%.
This distinction is important because harvested volume does not translate directly into the same quantity of commercial or exportable coffee. A greater proportion of ground-collected cherries can increase sorting requirements and reduce the volume ultimately meeting higher quality specifications.
September Rain Temporarily Slowed Final Field Work
Rainfall between September 5 and 9 temporarily interrupted harvesting in parts of the Cerrado Mineiro.
High soil moisture restricted machinery access and prevented some mechanized collection from continuing, delaying the completion of the remaining fields. With the regional harvest already at 99%, however, the rain poses relatively little threat to overall harvested volume.
The significance of the rainfall is increasingly connected to the next crop rather than the one currently being completed.
In Patrocínio, accumulated September rainfall reached 43.1 millimeters by September 11, compared with 35.9 millimeters over the equivalent period of the previous season. Rainfall across the wider Cerrado Mineiro was uneven, with some areas receiving considerably more moisture than others.
The return of precipitation followed a period characterized by elevated temperatures and limited water availability, providing moisture at an important point in the reproductive cycle of coffee trees.
Early Flowering Shifts Attention Toward the Next Arabica Crop
Expocacer technicians have already observed a substantial early flowering across parts of the Cerrado Mineiro, estimated at approximately 33% of the region’s total flowering potential.
Flowering has reportedly been stronger and more uniform in fields that produced little or no coffee during the current season. Plantations that carried heavier production have generally shown less intense flowering, reflecting the physiological stress associated with larger crops.
Further rainfall could encourage another major flowering event, potentially representing another third of the season’s expected flowering. The remaining flowering is expected to develop during October and November.
The timing is relatively early and could bring the development cycle forward in some areas.
While abundant flowering can be an encouraging first signal for production potential, flowering alone does not determine the size of the following crop. Flowers require adequate moisture after opening to set successfully, and developing cherries remain vulnerable to extended dry periods and excessive heat.
The distribution of rainfall over the coming weeks may therefore become more important than the cumulative amount alone.
Irregular Rainfall Could Increase Crop Variability
Current conditions remain uneven across the region. Forecasts indicate relatively limited rainfall in the near term, with warmer and drier periods potentially alternating with short episodes of increased cloud cover and precipitation.
Such a pattern could create uneven flowering across farms and even within individual fields.
Multiple flowering events can also translate into greater variation in cherry development and ripening later in the season. That can complicate harvesting decisions, increase the number of passes required through plantations and potentially influence final quality.
Expocacer has therefore advised producers to bring forward some crop-management activities following the early flowering, particularly fertilization and soil nutrition programs.
Monitoring of coffee berry borer pressure may also become increasingly important if the crop develops at different stages simultaneously.
Brazil Moves From Harvest to Export and Flowering Season
The Brazilian Arabica market is now entering a transition period.
The 2026 harvest is effectively complete in Cerrado Mineiro, allowing greater volumes to move through processing, commercialization and export channels. Secex data indicate a strong pace of green coffee exports during early September, while the significantly larger volume of Cecafé certificate requests suggests that additional coffee remains positioned to leave Brazil in the weeks ahead.
At the same time, attention is rapidly shifting toward the next crop.
The appearance of widespread early flowering means Brazil is already entering the weather-sensitive period that will help determine 2027 Arabica production. Rainfall sufficient to sustain flower setting and early cherry development could improve the production outlook, while irregular moisture or renewed heat and dryness could reduce the benefit of the early bloom.
For the coming weeks, Brazil will therefore remain important to the coffee market on two fronts: how quickly the current harvest moves into export channels and whether the early flowering develops successfully into the next crop.
