Cocoa Prices Reach Highest Level Since January as Rally Continues (25 June 2026)

• Cocoa futures rose, with September New York cocoa gaining 242 points (+4.86%) to close at 5,224, the highest closing level since late January.
• Ghanaian farmers warned heavy rainfall and black pod disease could significantly reduce 2026/27 cocoa production.
• Rabobank maintained its expectation of a 2026/27 global cocoa surplus but acknowledged that a potential El Niño could materially alter the supply outlook.

Cocoa futures extended their rally, with September 2026 New York cocoa futures gaining 242 points (+4.86%), rising from 4,982 on 24 June to 5,224 on 25 June. Buying interest remained strong throughout most of the session, pushing prices above the 5,300 level before late profit-taking trimmed part of the intraday advance. Despite the late pullback, the contract closed firmly higher, recording its highest closing price since the end of January, as strong momentum and elevated trading volumes continued to support the rally.

Weather

Cocoa prices received additional support after Ghanaian farmers warned that exceptionally heavy rainfall and the rapid spread of black pod disease are threatening production prospects for the 2026/27 crop. Farmers across several key cocoa-growing regions reported that persistent rainfall has disrupted pollination, increased flooding risks, and accelerated the spread of fungal diseases, raising concerns that yields could decline sharply if wet conditions persist.

The warning follows a pattern similar to the 2023/24 season, when excessive rainfall, followed by extreme heat, contributed to severe crop losses across West Africa. Ghana's Meteorological Agency has forecast above-average rainfall during the main rainy season, reinforcing concerns that disease pressure could intensify over the coming months.

Market participants also highlighted similar weather conditions in neighboring Ivory Coast, where farmers have reported flooding concerns and an increased risk of black pod disease. As Ghana and Ivory Coast together account for more than half of global cocoa production, weather developments across both countries remain a key driver of market sentiment. Consequently, traders continued to price in a weather risk premium despite relatively strong arrivals and modest increases in certified stocks.

Market Commentary

Market sentiment remained broadly supportive despite indications that cocoa futures have become technically overbought. Trade participants cited growing concerns that a potential El Niño event could delay the upcoming 2026/27 main crops in both Ivory Coast and Ghana, reinforcing expectations that weather risks will remain the dominant market driver over the coming months.

Several market participants acknowledged that the recent rally may be vulnerable to short-term profit-taking. Citigroup disclosed that it had liquidated its long cocoa position to lock in profits after the sharp advance, but emphasized that it remains bullish on the market and would consider re-establishing long exposure on a price pullback. The comments suggest that while some institutional investors are taking profits after the recent rally, they continue to view any correction as a buying opportunity rather than a reversal of the broader uptrend.

Not all participants share the bullish outlook. Rabobank reiterated its expectation of a global cocoa surplus in 2026/27, maintaining a bearish medium-term view. However, the bank acknowledged that the growing risk of El Niño could materially alter the supply outlook should adverse weather conditions develop across West Africa.

Futures Performance

The cocoa futures market recorded a broad-based rally on 25 June, with both ICE New York and ICE London contracts closing substantially higher across nearly the entire forward curve. Buying interest extended well beyond the nearby contracts, resulting in a parallel upward shift of both futures curves and reflecting a significant improvement in market sentiment during the session.

New York Cocoa (CC)

In New York, the strongest gains were concentrated in the nearby contracts. The July 2026 contract closed 290 points above the previous session, while September and December 2026 contracts advanced by 242 and 238 points, respectively. Although deferred contracts also posted solid gains, the magnitude gradually declined further along the curve, with increases easing to around 180–190 points in late-2027 maturities. This front-loaded strength suggests that buying activity was primarily focused on tightening near-term fundamentals while remaining supportive across the broader market.

London Cocoa (C)

London cocoa futures mirrored the bullish tone seen in New York. The front end of the curve strengthened by approximately 170 points, with July, September, December 2026 and March 2027 contracts each gaining between 171 and 174 points. Further along the curve, gains moderated progressively, falling to around 122–152 points in the more deferred contracts. The relatively uniform appreciation across the first several expiries indicates that market participants repriced the entire near-term supply outlook rather than reacting to contract-specific factors.

EFP, EFS and Spread Activity

Exchange for Physical (EFP) activity remained relatively subdued during the session. ICE New York recorded 392 EFPs, an increase from 265 on the previous trading day, indicating a modest rise in the conversion of futures positions into physical cocoa transactions. In contrast, ICE London registered 701 EFPs, down sharply from 3,044 on 24 June, suggesting considerably lower physical exchange activity despite the strong futures rally.

Exchange for Swaps (EFS) volumes also declined. New York recorded 140 EFS transactions, compared with 190 a day earlier, while London activity fell significantly to 105 from 610. The reduction in EFS activity indicates that swap-related hedging and OTC position transfers played a smaller role during the session, with market participation appearing to shift toward outright futures trading.

Spread trading increased noticeably across both exchanges. ICE New York spread volume rose to 41,380 contracts, up from 25,706 on 24 June, while ICE London spread volume climbed to 39,570 contracts, compared with 30,289 previously. The sharp increase in calendar spread activity reflects heightened repositioning along the forward curve as participants adjusted nearby and deferred exposures following the strong upward repricing of cocoa futures.

New York Cocoa (CC)

London Cocoa (C)

The session was characterized by substantially higher spread trading alongside reduced physical and swap-related exchanges, suggesting that market participants focused primarily on futures curve repositioning rather than on executing physical deliveries or OTC swap conversions. This pattern is consistent with a session driven by active speculative and commercial portfolio adjustments across the cocoa forward curve.

US–UK July Spread

(Sep Contract)

$5,247 − (£3,938 x 1.318$/£) =$57ton

Volume and Open Interest

Trading activity intensified significantly across both cocoa exchanges on 25 June, with market participation reaching some of the highest levels observed during the month. ICE New York recorded 66,554 contracts, the second-highest daily volume in June, while ICE London traded 58,699 contracts, marking the highest daily volume of the month. The surge in turnover alongside the strong price rally indicates broad market participation and reinforces the conviction behind the move higher.

The increase in activity was particularly notable in London, where daily trading volumes have risen consistently throughout the week, climbing from 40,135 contracts on 22 June to 58,699 contracts on 25 June. This steady acceleration suggests that market participants became increasingly active as prices advanced, reflecting growing confidence in the prevailing bullish momentum rather than a short-lived spike in trading.

A similar pattern was evident in New York, where trading volume rebounded sharply after several quieter sessions. The combination of elevated volumes on both ICE New York and ICE London confirms that the rally attracted participation across the global cocoa market, with both commercial hedgers and speculative investors actively repositioning their exposures.

Monthly open interest trends reveal a notable divergence between the two exchanges. In New York, total open interest declined steadily from 205,687 contracts on 1 June to 182,026 contracts on 24 June, representing a reduction of 23,661 contracts (-11.5%). This persistent decline indicates that market participants had been reducing overall exposure throughout much of the month, with existing positions gradually being liquidated.

In contrast, London open interest increased over the same period, rising from 223,119 contracts on 1 June to 238,272 contracts on 24 June, an increase of 15,153 contracts (+6.8%). Unlike New York, the London market experienced a gradual expansion in outstanding positions, suggesting that new exposure continued to be added despite the volatile price environment.

This divergence is particularly noteworthy. While New York entered the latest rally with significantly fewer outstanding positions than at the beginning of the month, London maintained a steadily expanding open interest base. The official 25 June open interest figures will therefore be closely watched to determine whether the sharp increase in prices marked the beginning of renewed position building in New York or was driven primarily by short covering. A rise in open interest alongside the strong increase in trading volume would provide additional confirmation that fresh capital is entering the cocoa market rather than simply existing participants closing positions..

New York Cocoa (CC)

London Cocoa (C)

Exchange Trading Volume

These figures refer only to ICE Deliverable Stocks (Exchange-Visible)

Readers can explore detailed cocoa market datasets, futures statistics, and historical indicators in the CocoaIntel Data Hub:

Data

📊 Grindings 📦 Inventory / Certified Stocks 🚢 Import / Export Flows ⚖️ Stock-to-Grind Ratio 📈 Futures Contracts 🔄 Futures Curve & Spreads 🧠 COT / Positioning 🚚 Port Deliveries 🌧️ Weather Dashboard 🌀 Options & Volatility 📅 Seasonality 📑 Institutional Reports 🗓️ Cocoa Calendar This section is currently under active development. We are building a structured, transparent cocoa market data platform covering futures analytics, certified stocks, positioning

CocoaIntelCocoa Intel

Cocoa Market Outlook for Friday (Sep Contract)

The technical outlook remains constructive heading into Friday, with the cocoa market expected to retain its bullish tone following Thursday's strong advance. Price continues to trade above all major moving averages, while the sharp increase in trading volume confirms broad market participation and supports the strength of the recent rally. However, after two consecutive sessions of substantial gains, momentum indicators are becoming increasingly extended, raising the likelihood of intraday profit-taking and higher volatility. As a result, the most probable scenario is a period of consolidation, with buyers likely to defend price pullbacks while attempting to extend gains toward the recent highs. Unless fresh bullish fundamental news emerges, Friday's session is expected to be characterized by range-bound trading with a modest upward bias rather than another outsized rally, allowing the market to consolidate recent gains before establishing its next directional move.

If you notice any discrepancies in these figures or have extra information, please email [email protected] or leave a comment – corrections and additional insights are always welcome.