Coffee futures retreat as technical selling returns ahead of options expiry (13 August 2026)
Coffee futures ended Thursday under broad selling pressure on both ICE markets, with technical liquidation taking control after an early attempt to stabilize New York prices failed. December arabica lost 7.15 cents, or 2.23%, to settle at 312.80 cents per pound, while September declined 7.00 cents, or 2.06%, to 333.10 cents. In London, November robusta fell $108, or 2.88%, to $3,644 per tonne, and September dropped $103, or 2.73%, to $3,666 per tonne.
The synchronized decline appeared to be driven mainly by positioning and chart signals ahead of Friday’s expiry of September arabica options rather than by a single new fundamental development.
December arabica opened at 317.45 cents and initially attracted enough buying to reach 320.80 cents. The contract was unable to establish itself above the 320-cent area, however, and the failed breakout encouraged renewed selling. Prices subsequently fell to 310.40 cents before recovering slightly into the close. The session’s 10.40-cent range and the settlement near its lower end confirmed that sellers retained control late in the day. Total New York volume reached 41,399 lots, down moderately from Wednesday.
The arabica curve nevertheless remained firmly inverted. September settled at a 20.30-cent premium to December, compared with 20.15 cents one day earlier, showing that nearby availability continues to command a substantial premium despite the fall in outright prices.
Liquidity is also moving further along the curve. December open interest stood at 83,569 lots, while March 2027 reached 33,078 lots and exceeded September’s 31,139 lots for the first time. With the index-fund rollover window completed, attention now shifts to the options expiry and the next stage of position migration later in August.
Selling was even more persistent in London. November robusta opened at $3,743 and reached only $3,746 before falling steadily to an intraday low of $3,639. Its close at $3,644 placed the most active contract below the psychologically important $3,650 level.
London volume increased to 25,141 lots, including 14,340 lots in November and 5,380 in September. The September–November premium widened to $22 from $17, preserving some nearby tightness in the curve even as the overall price structure weakened.
Inventory trends continue to distinguish the two markets. ICE-certified arabica stocks declined by another 3,855 bags to 236,430 bags, extending a prolonged contraction and leaving inventories at their lowest level in roughly 2.75 years. In contrast, ICE robusta stocks rose to 4,514 lots, their highest level in about five months.
The divergence provides relative support to arabica while leaving London more exposed to expectations of additional supply from the approaching Vietnamese and Indonesian crop cycles.
The reassessment of Colombian logistics also contributed to Thursday’s weaker tone. Following the devastating August 10 earthquake, reports indicated that coffee exports had partially resumed through Buenaventura.
Port activity remained slower than normal and inland transport constraints had not been fully resolved, but the reopening reduced fears of a prolonged nationwide interruption. Exporters were also considering Caribbean ports as alternatives for some destinations. The market therefore shifted from pricing the risk of an outright halt toward the more limited, but still important, risk of delays, backlogs and higher logistical costs.
Brazilian export data added another supply-side counterweight. Cecafé reported that August shipments had reached 1,156,241 bags by August 13, an increase of 123.6% under the council’s comparison basis. The total included approximately 808,000 bags of arabica, 278,000 bags of robusta and 70,000 bags of soluble coffee. Certificates of origin had been issued for about 1.26 million bags, up 34.5%.
In Brazil’s physical market, however, the renewed futures decline kept trading subdued. Sellers generally remained cautious, while the reference price for quality coffee in southern Minas Gerais held near R$1,910 per bag.
Weather remains a secondary risk rather than the session’s principal driver. São Paulo’s Civil Defense warned of unusually hot and dry conditions through August 19, with temperatures in parts of the state forecast to rise as much as 7°C above seasonal norms and humidity expected to fall sharply.
Franca and Ribeirão Preto are among the areas facing the most severe conditions. No immediate production loss has been established, but persistent heat, low humidity and elevated fire risk will require monitoring in coffee-producing districts.
Friday’s options expiry is likely to keep near-term trading technically sensitive. For December arabica, initial support lies near 308.53 cents, followed by 304.27 and 298.13 cents. Resistance is located near 318.93, 325.07 and 329.33 cents. A recovery above the 319–320-cent area would be needed to neutralize Thursday’s breakdown; failure to defend the first support zone could invite another round of liquidation.
The immediate balance is therefore mixed. Falling arabica inventories, an inverted New York curve and unresolved Colombian transport constraints continue to limit the bearish case. Against them stand the partial normalization of Colombian shipments, the rapid increase in Brazil’s August export flow, rising robusta stocks and expectations of additional Asian supply.
Until one side produces a stronger fundamental catalyst, price behavior is likely to remain dominated by technical levels, contract positioning and the transition of liquidity into later maturities.
