Cocoa Slides as Long Liquidation Continues Amid More Optimistic Côte d'Ivoire Crop Forecast (15 May 2026)

• Cocoa futures extended their correction on 15 May, with Jul-26 New York cocoa falling 4.57% to 4,030 and Jul-26 London cocoa declining 2.98% to 3,032 as technical liquidation and profit-taking continued.
• Côte d'Ivoire's Conseil du Café-Cacao (CCC) projects 2025/26 cocoa production at 2.1-2.2 million tonnes, well above earlier market expectations of around 1.8 million tonnes.
• Weather forecasts call for widespread rainfall across Côte d'Ivoire, Ghana, Nigeria, and Cameroon over the next two weeks, with many cocoa regions expected to receive 100-150 mm of precipitation.
• Reuters reported that cocoa farmers in Côte d'Ivoire are sharply reducing purchases of fertilizers and crop protection products after heavy financial losses during the 2024/25 season.

On 15 May 2026, cocoa futures extended their sharp correction in both New York and London, with nearby contracts posting substantial losses across the forward curve. In New York, the benchmark Jul-26 contract fell 193 points from 4,223 to 4,030, a decline of 4.57%, while in London, Jul-26 dropped 93 pounds from 3,125 to 3,032, down 2.98%. Selling pressure remained broad-based and orderly, with most contracts losing between 4.4% and 4.7% in New York and 2.9% and 3.3% in London. Trading volumes remained elevated, although lower than earlier in the month, and open interest continued to trend downward, indicating that the move was driven primarily by liquidation of existing long positions rather than aggressive new short selling. Despite the sharp decline, the overall term structure remains intact, suggesting that the market is undergoing a technical correction rather than a fundamental reassessment of longer-term supply concerns.

Fundamental Developments

According to the Conseil du Café-Cacao (CCC), Côte d'Ivoire's 2025/26 cocoa production is projected at approximately 2.1 to 2.2 million tonnes, significantly above earlier market expectations of around 1.8 million tonnes. This improved outlook reflects favorable weather and better crop conditions and has reinforced expectations of stronger global cocoa supplies in the coming season.

At the same time, analysts continue to monitor the potential development of an El Niño weather event, which could negatively affect cocoa production later in the season and reintroduce weather-related risk to the market.

Citigroup stated that cocoa is likely to be one of the commodities most sensitive to a strong El Niño and projected that prices could recover toward $5,000 per tonne over the next three months if adverse weather conditions materialize.

Weather

Weather conditions across West Africa remain broadly favorable for cocoa development. Forecast models indicate widespread rainfall over Côte d'Ivoire, Ghana, Nigeria, and Cameroon during the next two weeks, with cumulative precipitation in many key producing areas expected to exceed 100 mm and locally reach 150 mm or more. The heaviest rainfall is concentrated along the coastal cocoa belt, where soil moisture levels are expected to remain ample and supportive of pod filling and tree health.

Temperatures are forecast to stay seasonally moderate, while humidity levels remain elevated, creating generally beneficial growing conditions. The current weather pattern should support the continuation of the mid-crop and promote good flowering and cherelle development for the 2025/26 main crop. Overall, the outlook remains favorable and reinforces expectations for improved production potential across the region.

Cocoa Weather

Cocoa Weather Forecast & Crop Impact Analysis Track cocoa weather conditions across Ivory Coast, Ghana, Brazil, and Indonesia, with crop-focused analysis of rainfall, temperature, drought risk, and market impact. West Africa cocoa weather analysis Ivory Coast Weather Forecast (Cocoa Belt) Ivory Coast is the largest cocoa producer globally, so rainfall, temperature,

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Farmer Input Use and Production Risks

Reuters reported that cocoa farmers across Côte d'Ivoire are sharply reducing purchases of fertilizers and crop protection products after suffering substantial financial losses during the 2024/25 season. Retailers in major producing regions such as San Pedro, Soubré, Divo, Duékoué, and Abengourou said that sales have largely stalled since December, with some reporting that as much as 90% of their inventories remain unsold. The slowdown follows weak bean sales, lower farmgate revenues, and tighter cash flow after exporters reduced purchases and the government lowered the guaranteed mid-crop price to 2,000 CFA francs per kilogram.

Farmers indicated that they are prioritizing essential household expenses, debt repayment, and credit obligations rather than investing in fertilizers, fungicides, and insecticides. Industry participants warned that reduced application of these inputs could significantly lower yields and increase exposure to pests and diseases such as mirids, pod borers, and swollen shoot virus. Given that many cocoa trees are already aging and require more intensive maintenance, the decline in input use raises concerns that Côte d'Ivoire's production potential for the 2025/26 season may fall short of current optimistic projections if financial conditions do not improve.

Futures Performance

On 15 May 2026, cocoa futures extended their sharp decline in both New York and London, with selling pressure intensifying across the entire forward curve. The downturn was more severe than the previous session, particularly in nearby contracts, indicating continued liquidation of long positions and a broad reassessment of bullish sentiment. The consistency of losses across deferred months suggests that traders reduced exposure across the curve rather than concentrating on front-month positions alone.

New York Cocoa (CC)

In New York, Jul-26 cocoa fell from 4,223 to 4,030, a decline of 193 points or 4.57%. Sep-26 lost 201 points to close at 4,109, while Dec-26 dropped 195 points to 4,208. Mar-27 declined 196 points to 4,255, and May-27 fell 201 points to 4,278. Losses were broadly uniform across the forward curve, ranging from 4.40% to 4.66%, reflecting aggressive but orderly liquidation rather than a major change in curve structure. Total trading volume reached 41,124 lots, indicating active participation as the market continued to unwind risk.

London Cocoa (C)

London cocoa futures also moved lower, though declines were less pronounced than in New York. Jul-26 fell from 3,125 to 3,032, down 93 pounds or 2.98%. Sep-26 lost 102 pounds to 3,036, Dec-26 dropped 97 pounds to 3,074, Mar-27 fell 94 pounds to 3,105, and May-27 declined 92 pounds to 3,118. Percentage losses ranged from 2.87% to 3.25%, suggesting steady selling pressure across the curve while preserving the overall term structure. Total volume reached 24,470 lots, confirming substantial trading activity as the correction continued.

Despite the sharp declines, the relatively stable shape of the forward curves suggests that the market remains orderly. Nearby contracts continue to trade at premiums to deferred months, indicating that while bullish positioning has been reduced significantly, traders have not fully abandoned concerns about underlying supply tightness and long-term structural deficits in the cocoa market.

EFP, EFS and Spread Activity

New York Cocoa (CC)

In New York, Exchange for Physical (EFP) activity totaled 348 lots, indicating continued commercial conversion of futures positions into physical market exposure. No Exchange for Swap (EFS) transactions were reported. Spread trading remained active at 22,140 lots, accounting for a substantial share of total turnover. Overall volume reached 41,124 lots, reflecting strong but more measured participation as the market extended its correction.

London Cocoa (C)

In London, EFP activity reached 955 lots, significantly higher than in New York and indicative of robust commercial hedging and physical market-related transactions. EFS activity was limited at 4 lots. Spread volume totaled 14,199 lots, while total trading volume reached 24,470 lots. The continued prominence of EFP and spread activity suggests that commercial participants remained actively engaged as the market adjusted lower.

US–UK July Spread

$4,030 − (£3032 x 1.332$/£) =$-8.6ton (down from $38)

Volume and Open Interest

New York Cocoa (CC)

New York trading activity has moderated steadily over the past five sessions, with volume declining from 74,022 lots on 9 May to 41,124 lots on 15 May. Open interest remains relatively stable near 193,000 contracts, indicating that while speculative positions are being reduced, the broader market structure remains intact.

London Cocoa (C)

London cocoa volumes have also declined consistently over the last five sessions, falling from 49,232 lots to 24,470 lots. Open interest has trended lower from 214,024 to 208,295 contracts, reinforcing the view that the recent price decline has been driven by liquidation of existing positions rather than substantial new short selling.

The last five trading sessions show a clear reduction in both volume and open interest across New York and London. This pattern suggests that the market is undergoing an orderly correction characterized by declining speculative participation and profit-taking. Although turnover remains historically elevated, the downward trend in open interest confirms that participants are reducing exposure as cocoa prices continue to retreat.

COT Analysis

The latest Commitment of Traders report for ICE U.S. cocoa futures, as of 12 May 2026, shows a distinctly bearish shift in speculative sentiment. Non-commercial traders, which include hedge funds and other managed money participants, held 38,014 long contracts and 56,356 short contracts, resulting in a net short position of 18,342 contracts. This represents an increase of 2,859 contracts in their net short exposure compared with the previous week, as short positions rose by 4,910 contracts while long positions increased by only 2,051 contracts. The data indicate that speculative traders continued to add downside exposure and reduced conviction in the earlier bullish trend.

Commercial participants, including producers, exporters, grinders, and industrial users, remained net long by 17,075 contracts, with 117,226 long contracts versus 100,151 short contracts. This net long position reflects ongoing buying and hedge adjustments by physical market participants, who appear to view current price levels as attractive for securing future supply and managing procurement needs.

Total reportable positions stood at 240,050 long contracts and 241,317 short contracts, while total open interest declined by 1,800 contracts to 251,422. The decline in open interest suggests that some traders exited positions during the reporting week, consistent with the broader market correction. Nonreportable traders, representing smaller market participants, were modestly net long by 1,267 contracts.

The COT data reveal a growing divergence between speculative and commercial positioning. Hedge funds have become increasingly bearish, expanding their net short position to more than 18,000 contracts, while commercial traders remain firmly net long by over 17,000 contracts. This configuration suggests that speculative sentiment has deteriorated materially, but physical market participants continue to provide underlying support, indicating that the recent price decline is being driven primarily by fund liquidation and bearish repositioning rather than a wholesale loss of confidence from the commercial sector.

Cocoa COT Report (Commitment of Traders)

Weekly Cocoa COT report showing speculative funds and commercial trader positions in ICE US and ICE Europe cocoa futures.

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Exchange Trading Volume

These figures refer only to ICE Deliverable Stocks (Exchange-Visible)

Readers can explore detailed cocoa market datasets, futures statistics, and historical indicators in the CocoaIntel Data Hub:

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Cocoa Market Outlook for Monday

On Monday, London cocoa is likely to open with a cautious tone as the market tests the key psychological support level at 3,000. The sharp decline over the past several sessions has left short-term technical indicators in oversold territory, increasing the probability of a modest short-covering rebound if this support holds. In that case, prices could recover toward the 3,050–3,100 range. However, a decisive break below 3,000 would likely trigger additional liquidation and expose the 2,950 area, which corresponds closely to the 21-day moving average and an important medium-term support zone. Overall, the most probable scenario is early consolidation around 3,000 followed by a limited technical rebound, while the broader market remains in a corrective phase within an still-intact longer-term uptrend.

If you notice any discrepancies in these figures or have extra information, please email [email protected] or leave a comment – corrections and additional insights are always welcome.