Cocoa Surges 9.4% as West African Crop Risks, Weather and Policy Developments Drive the Market (3 August 2026)
New York cocoa opened firmly at $5,435 per tonne and advanced almost continuously throughout the session. September futures closed at $5,903, up $509, or 9.44%, from the previous close and 8.61% above the opening price. After an early move above $5,500, prices continued to climb through the morning, with only brief and shallow pullbacks. Buying accelerated around midday, lifting the contract to a session high of $5,950, representing a 10.64% rise from the intraday low of $5,378. The market then consolidated near the high and closed only 0.79% below the session peak, indicating that buyers remained firmly in control into the close.
Côte d’Ivoire arrivals
Cocoa arrivals at Côte d’Ivoire’s ports reached an estimated 1.988 million tonnes by 2 August, up 21.8% from the same stage of the previous season. However, weekly deliveries slowed considerably: approximately 7,000 tonnes arrived between 27 July and 2 August, comprising 3,000 tonnes at Abidjan and 4,000 tonnes at San Pedro, compared with 12,000 tonnes during the corresponding week last year. The data therefore show that cumulative arrivals remain exceptionally strong, although the latest weekly flow points to the normal seasonal slowdown as the 2025/26 main crop approaches its end.
Côte d’Ivoire crop conditions
Farmers across Côte d’Ivoire said the 2026/27 main crop outlook remains promising, but more sunshine is needed following below-average rainfall and cooler weather in several producing regions. Soil moisture is still sufficient to support pod development for the coming weeks, and farmers reported abundant fruit formation in areas including Soubre, Agboville, Divo, Abengourou, Daloa and the central belt. However, persistent humidity and additional heavy rain in September could increase disease and pod-rot risks, particularly if plantations are not properly treated with fertilisers and pesticides. Under favourable weather conditions, harvesting is expected to strengthen from mid-October through December, supporting the prospect of a sizeable early main crop.
West African weather outlook
The seven-day forecast indicates widespread rainfall across the West African cocoa belt. Ghana is expected to receive moderate cumulative rainfall, with the selected location showing approximately 50 mm through 11 August. Wetter conditions are forecast across southern and western Côte d’Ivoire, Liberia and Guinea, while locally heavier totals may also affect parts of Nigeria and Cameroon. The rainfall should maintain adequate soil moisture and support pod development, but continued cloud cover and high humidity could limit sunshine and increase the risk of fungal disease and pod rot, particularly in the wettest producing areas.
Colombia–United States cocoa trade
According to StoneX, Colombia’s cocoa and cocoa-product exports to the United States have more than tripled in less than two years, with the U.S. accounting for 37.1% of the sector’s total export value. Colombia’s cocoa exports reached a record US$413.1 million in 2025, up from US$128.6 million in 2023, while shipments to the United States exceeded US$153 million. Export volume rose 16.4% to 49,044 tonnes, with nearly 70% consisting of processed and semi-processed products such as cocoa butter, liquor, powder and chocolate. The growth reflects both high international prices and stronger value-added export capacity, reinforcing Colombia’s position as a premium fine-flavour cocoa supplier. New Jersey remained the principal U.S. entry point, although shipments also expanded through Virginia, New York, Pennsylvania and California, indicating a gradual diversification of the distribution network.
Ghana’s new COCOBOD Bill
Ghana’s Parliament has passed a new COCOBOD Bill under a certificate of urgency, with supporters arguing that the legislation was required before the new cocoa season and producer-price decisions begin in September. The Bill consolidates the regulatory framework governing cocoa production, marketing and financing, but has attracted criticism over provisions requiring farmers to obtain approval before converting cocoa land to other uses. Associated Press reported that the toughest penalties, particularly for converting cocoa farms into illegal mining sites, could include prison sentences of between 10 and 20 years. The legislation reportedly also guarantees farmers at least 70% of the achieved FOB price, introduces a domestic cocoa-purchase financing model and requires at least 50% of Ghana’s production to be reserved for local processing. The Bill had not yet received presidential assent at the time of the reports.
Futures performance
New York analysis
New York cocoa recorded an exceptionally strong and broad-based advance. September 2026 closed at $5,903 per tonne, up $509, or 9.44%, from Friday. The following four contracts gained between $490 and $498 per tonne, showing that the move was not isolated to the nearby contract.
The rally was also sustained into the end of the session. The five nearest contracts all closed within approximately 9%–10% of their session highs:
| Contract | 31 Jul close | 3 Aug close | Change | Change % |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep-26 | $5,394 | $5,903 | +$509 | +9.44% |
| Dec-26 | $5,537 | $6,029 | +$492 | +8.89% |
| Mar-27 | $5,628 | $6,126 | +$498 | +8.85% |
| May-27 | $5,642 | $6,132 | +$490 | +8.68% |
| Jul-27 | $5,619 | $6,109 | +$490 | +8.72% |
May 2027 remained the highest closing contract at $6,132 per tonne. From that point, the curve moved into backwardation, falling to $6,109 in July, $6,103 in September and $6,063 in December.
The September-to-May premium narrowed from $248 to $229 per tonne. The rally therefore flattened the front section of the curve slightly, primarily because September outperformed December and the middle contracts.
However, the continued September–December contango means the market was still not pricing an immediate shortage of nearby deliverable cocoa. The principal repricing remained concentrated in the forward crop period.
London cocoa
London cocoa closely followed the New York move. September closed at £4,379 per tonne, gaining £370, or 9.23%. December recorded the strongest percentage increase among the nearest contracts at 9.24%, while March delivered the largest absolute gain at £380.
As in New York, the market finished close to its session highs:
| Contract | 31 Jul close | 3 Aug close | Change | Change % |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep-26 | £4,009 | £4,379 | +£370 | +9.23% |
| Dec-26 | £4,058 | £4,433 | +£375 | +9.24% |
| Mar-27 | £4,150 | £4,530 | +£380 | +9.16% |
| May-27 | £4,157 | £4,513 | +£356 | +8.56% |
| Jul-27 | £4,149 | £4,500 | +£351 | +8.46% |
All five contracts closed above 90% of their daily trading ranges. March finished only £28 below its high, while September finished £30 below its high.
This confirms that the rally retained momentum through the closing period rather than being driven solely by an early-session spike.
The London curve reached its principal peak at £4,530 in March 2027. It then declined to £4,513 in May, £4,500 in July, £4,465 in September and £4,427 in December.
The front of the curve therefore remained in contango through March, after which the structure moved into backwardation.
A secondary increase appeared between December 2027 and March 2028, where the closing price rose from £4,427 to £4,482. This part of the curve should be interpreted cautiously because deferred liquidity was substantially lower than in the nearby contracts.
US–UK Spread
(Sep Contract)
$5,939 − (£4,342 x 1.347$/£) =$90ton (up from $ -6 ton )
Volume and Open Interest
New York cocoa
New York cocoa volume increased sharply to 62,458 contracts, up 17,426 contracts, or 38.7%, from the previous session. Daily volume was 46.7% above the average of the preceding 15 sessions.
Open interest stood at 204,606 contracts on 31 July, the latest available observation. It recovered during the final week of July after declining sharply between 17 and 24 July. By the end of the month, open interest was slightly above the beginning of the displayed period but remained below the 17 July peak.
London cocoa
London cocoa volume reached 38,327 contracts, increasing by 1,239 contracts, or 3.3%, from 31 July. Volume was 22.6% above the average of the preceding July sessions, indicating stronger-than-normal participation.
However, the increase was considerably less exceptional than in New York. London volume remained below several earlier July sessions, including the period high of 49,069 contracts on 13 July.
London open interest weakened ahead of the rally. On 31 July, it fell by 4,893 contracts to the lowest level in the supplied series, indicating that positions were being reduced before the 3 August move.
This contraction suggests that short-covering may have contributed to the subsequent rally. However, without the 3 August open-interest figure, it is not possible to determine how much of the move was driven by short-covering and how much reflected new long positioning.
Exchange Trading Volume
| Exchange | 31 Jul 2026 | 3 Aug 2026 | Change | % Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ICE U.S. Cocoa | 3,365,663 | 3,370,811 | +5,148 | +0.15% |
| ICE Europe Cocoa | 1,148,906 | 1,148,906 | 0 | 0.00% |
| Combined | 4,514,569 | 4,519,717 | +5,148 | +0.11% |
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