Coffee Holds Near 275 as Brazil’s Record Crop Puts Quality in Focus (24 September 2026)

December Arabica settled at 275.35 cents per pound, down 0.55 cents, or 0.20%, as the market balanced Brazil’s record production estimate against concerns over harvest quality and low certified inventories. Prices traded between approximately 272.00 and 279.10 cents, recovering from the session low but failing to reclaim 280. March finished at 267.70 cents, down 0.45 cents.

London November Robusta fell $27, or 0.81%, to $3,290 per tonne, after trading between $3,264 and $3,334. January declined $18 to $3,272. Turnover was approximately 20,000 contracts on each exchange, with StoneX reporting limited commercial activity. Following the reported 17.7% decline in Arabica over the preceding 20 sessions, Thursday’s performance suggested consolidation rather than a confirmed reversal.

Brazil’s record harvest is driven by Arabica

Conab’s third survey estimates Brazil’s 2026 coffee production at 67.6 million 60-kilogram bags, up 19.6% year on year and the highest in its historical series. With approximately 99% of the area harvested, the increase is overwhelmingly concentrated in Arabica.

Arabica represents approximately 71% of total production. National productive area increased 5.1% to 1.95 million hectares, while average yield rose 13.8% to 34.6 bags per hectare, supported by the positive biennial cycle, favorable growing conditions and greater investment in production technology.

Minas Gerais is expected to produce 34.96 million bags of Arabica, including 15.93 million in its southern and central-western regions. São Paulo contributes another 6.19 million bags. Conab attributes the recovery to better rainfall distribution and favorable conditions during flowering and bean development.

Robusta remains the weaker component despite a 4% expansion in productive area to 386,600 hectares. Espírito Santo’s Conilon production is forecast to fall 14.3% to 12.1 million bags, following flowering disruption caused by low temperatures. The state’s Arabica crop rises 33% to 4.38 million bags, supported by favorable weather and a 4.9% increase in productive area, but total coffee output still declines 5.4%.

Elsewhere, Bahia’s production increases 1.2%, comprising 3.3 million bags of Conilon and 1.19 million of Arabica. Rondônia’s exclusively Robusta crop reaches 2.88 million bags, up 24%, supported by favorable rainfall and improved management. Its harvest was 98% complete by the end of August. These gains only partially offset Espírito Santo’s decline, leaving the national supply recovery heavily weighted toward Arabica.

Quality concerns complicate the supply recovery

Procafé reports increased occurrence of Fusarium concolor during the 2026 harvest, associated with wetter winter conditions and delayed harvesting. Prolonged exposure of fruit on trees and the ground encouraged fungal development, with affected beans showing reddish discoloration along the ventral opening and inferior cup characteristics, including Rio/Riado classifications.

Unofficial estimates cited in market commentary suggest Arabica harvest losses of at least 10%, while approximately 35% of the crop could consist of ground-collected coffee, or varrição. These figures remain unverified and should not be treated as additional deductions from Conab’s processed-coffee estimate.

The commercial concern extends beyond outright losses. Reported price differences between poor-quality ground-collected coffee and good-quality lots exceed R$1,000 per bag, weakening incentives to recover damaged beans. Quality coffee in southern Minas Gerais was indicated around R$1,700 per bag, while sellers remained reluctant to accept prevailing prices.

The immediate implication is a potentially wider divide between grades: a larger harvest can pressure lower-quality coffee while consistent, better-quality lots retain stronger premiums. Whether this becomes a broader supply constraint depends on the extent of the deterioration and the volume buyers can use.

Nearby premiums persist, but London tightness eases

Both futures markets remained in backwardation, although Thursday’s spread movements were more supportive in the deferred Arabica structure than in Robusta.

New York’s December–March premium narrowed slightly, but December–May and March–May strengthened. London’s November–January premium contracted by one-third, with narrowing across the other nearby spreads also pointing to reduced immediate supply pressure.

Certified Arabica inventories remained around 254,000 bags, following a reported decline of 176 bags, with 21,117 bags awaiting certification. The supplied reports differ slightly on the exact certified balance. Robusta inventories have moved in the opposite direction: StoneX reported certified stocks increasing by 3,020 tonnes during September through September 23, consistent with the easing in London’s nearby premiums.

The December Arabica–November Robusta price difference widened to approximately 126.1 cents per pound, from 125.45 cents in the previous session.

Exports accelerate, while the global balance improves

Brazil’s shipments are beginning to reflect greater availability. MDIC figures cited by Conab show August exports at 3.8 million bags, a record for the month, up 43.2% year on year and 25.8% from July. However, January–August exports remained 6.6% below the previous year at 24.6 million bags, leaving part of the earlier shortfall unrecovered.

Preliminary Cecafé figures cited in the September 24 reports put shipments through September 22 at 2,304,002 bags, reportedly up 39%, with an indicated daily average of 104,727 bags. The total comprised 1,687,181 bags of Arabica, 452,374 bags of Robusta and 164,447 bags of soluble coffee. The figures remain a partial-month snapshot.

Conab’s market review, citing USDA projections, places global 2026/27 production at 189.7 million bags, up 6.1%, against consumption of 179.7 million bags, up 3.6%. Demand growth spans Europe, the United States and Brazil, alongside expanding markets such as China. Nevertheless, stronger Brazilian availability, Vietnam’s approaching harvest and Colombia’s seasonal production increase support a less constrained supply outlook.

The key test is whether rising shipments translate into sustained inventory rebuilding and further compression of nearby premiums. Low accessible stocks and quality constraints can delay that adjustment even when annual production exceeds consumption.

Currency movements added pressure on Thursday. StoneX reported a stronger dollar and weaker Brazilian real, improving the local-currency incentive for export selling. Commercial activity nevertheless remained limited, with no clear evidence of a substantial producer-selling wave.

Heat risk shifts attention toward the next crop

INMET issued a red-level heat-wave warning for September 26–30, covering parts of central-southern Brazil, including important coffee-producing areas. Several days of above-normal temperatures are expected before a cold front changes conditions around the end of the warning period.

With the 2026 harvest almost complete, attention increasingly turns to conditions affecting the following crop. The immediate priorities are the overlap between excessive heat and vulnerable plantations, the duration of the event, and the distribution of subsequent rainfall. Conab also identifies El Niño as a potential production risk across producing countries, although its market impact will depend on regional weather outcomes rather than the headline strength of the event.

Longer-term supply resilience remains in focus. Cooxupé and JDE Peet’s have launched a succession program targeting 700 young coffee producers over five years, with 70 participants in the first phase. Aimed at producers aged 18–35, it covers farm management, financial planning, regenerative agriculture, cooperativism, leadership and innovation. The initiative addresses management continuity rather than immediate crop availability.

Technical outlook: 275 remains contested

December Arabica’s recovery from approximately 272 cents prevented a deeper decline, but the failure to reclaim 279–280 cents leaves the rebound unconfirmed. Holding 275 is constructive only if followed by stronger buying through that resistance zone.

Using Thursday’s reported high, low and settlement, the central daily pivot is approximately 275.48 cents. Resistance stands at 278.97, 282.58 and 286.07 cents, with support at 271.87, 268.38 and 264.77 cents. A sustained break above 280 would improve the recovery structure; renewed weakness through 271.87 would expose the lower support levels.

In London, $3,300–3,334 is the immediate recovery zone, while $3,264–3,250 remains nearby support. A stronger outright price accompanied by renewed widening in November–January would provide a more convincing bullish signal than a price rebound alone.

The market remains caught between larger aggregate supply and uneven availability across qualities. Conab’s record crop strengthens the supply-recovery case, while harvest deterioration and low Arabica inventories complicate its transmission into the physical market. Quality differentials, certification results, export momentum and calendar spreads will determine whether current concerns remain concentrated in particular grades or develop into broader support for futures.