Coffee Volatility Intensifies as Arabica Falls, Brazilian Harvest Faces Rain Damage and Vietnam Exports Surge (3 August 2026)
New York arabica opened the week under strong selling pressure, reversing part of the gains recorded during the previous week. September futures opened at 332.00 cents per pound and briefly reached 332.65 cents, but buying interest remained limited. Prices declined steadily during the session and touched a low of 317.25 cents before recovering partially into the close.
The contract settled at 329.50 cents per pound, down 12.60 cents, or approximately 3.8%, from the previous session. The intraday range reached 15.40 cents, while trading volume increased to 43,460 lots, 6,524 lots above Friday’s level.
The decline appeared to be driven primarily by speculative liquidation and position adjustments ahead of the index-fund rollover period. Liquidity is gradually moving away from the September contract, where open interest has declined to approximately 54,000 lots from around 64,000 lots previously.
Despite the recovery from the session low, the market closed below the 320.00-cent area during part of the session, indicating that the support which had held during the previous week is becoming increasingly vulnerable.
Volatility remains exceptionally high. During the last six trading sessions, September arabica has traded between 306.40 and 346.65 cents per pound, producing a total range of 40.25 cents. The daily ranges over this period were 19.50, 18.65, 18.40, 13.40, 16.50 and 15.40 cents, resulting in an average intraday range of 16.97 cents.
Spreads and certified stocks
New York calendar spreads weakened during the session, although the futures curve remained backwardated.
The September/December spread narrowed to 14.80 cents from 17.45 cents. September/March declined to 23.55 cents from 26.80 cents, while December/March narrowed to 8.75 cents from 9.35 cents.
The reduction in nearby premiums suggests that some of the immediate supply pressure priced into the front of the curve has eased. However, the underlying physical situation remains tight.
ICE-certified arabica stocks declined by another 3,459 bags to 260,720 bags. This was the 28th consecutive session in which inventories reached a new historical low.
A total of 2,610 bags of Brazilian coffee remained pending certification after 17 consecutive sessions without any new coffee being submitted for grading. Although these pending volumes could provide limited relief, they remain small compared with the continued decline in deliverable stocks.
London robusta remains stable
London robusta performed more steadily than New York arabica. September futures closed at US$3,786 per tonne, up US$4, or approximately 0.1%, after trading between US$3,768 and US$3,835.
Trading volume reached 22,416 lots, an increase of 1,812 lots compared with Friday.
London spreads also narrowed. September/November declined to US$2 per tonne from US$7, September/January fell to US$30 from US$38, and November/January narrowed to US$28 from US$31.
The price differential between New York arabica and London robusta narrowed to approximately 147.75 cents per pound from 151.60 cents in the previous session, reflecting the substantially weaker performance of arabica.
Rain delays the final stage of Brazil’s harvest
Weather conditions in Brazil introduced an additional source of uncertainty. Rainfall at the end of July interrupted harvesting activities at a time when approximately 30% of the 2026/27 arabica crop was reportedly still in the fields.
The greatest concern relates to coffee cherries that had already fallen to the ground. Excess moisture can delay sweeping operations and increase the risk of fermentation, mould and other quality-related problems.
The actual impact cannot yet be quantified. Any deterioration will become clearer only after the affected coffee has been processed, reprocessed and evaluated through grading and cup testing.
Dryer weather has subsequently returned to much of south-central Brazil, with temperatures remaining above seasonal averages. This should allow harvesting activities to resume, but it does not eliminate the potential quality problems created by the late-July rainfall.
The Brazilian situation therefore remains supportive from a quality perspective, even though the weather has not yet produced evidence of a meaningful reduction in total production.
Vietnam exports reach exceptional levels
Vietnamese export data provided a strong counterweight to concerns surrounding Brazil.
Vietnam reportedly exported 396,000 tonnes of coffee in July, equivalent to approximately 6.6 million 60-kilogram bags. This represented an increase of 287% compared with July 2025.
Based on the reported figures, the July volume exceeded the previous monthly export record established by Brazil in October 2024, when Brazilian shipments reached approximately 295,500 tonnes, or 4.93 million bags.
Vietnam exported 1.31 million tonnes during the first seven months of 2026, equivalent to approximately 21.83 million bags. This was 21.1% above the volume recorded during the same period of the previous year.
However, export revenue declined by 11.2% to US$5.45 billion. The combination of substantially higher volumes and lower total revenue indicates a significant reduction in the average value of exported coffee compared with the previous year.
The Vietnamese figures are bearish for the robusta market and suggest that global availability has improved considerably. However, the impact on New York arabica may remain limited because the two markets continue to face different physical conditions. Robusta supply is expanding, while exchange-certified arabica availability remains historically restricted.
Coffee companies continue to report revenue growth
Corporate results suggest that consumer demand remains resilient despite elevated green-coffee costs.
Illycaffè reported consolidated revenue of €373 million during the first half of 2026, representing growth of 19% at constant exchange rates and 17% at current exchange rates compared with the same period of 2025.
The company achieved this growth despite green-coffee prices being approximately 20% higher than a year earlier. Increased sales volumes in Italy and the United States were the main drivers of the result, while the company continued to invest in international expansion.
Luckin Coffee reported second-quarter revenue of ¥15.89 billion, an increase of 28.5% from the previous year. Product sales rose by 28.7% to ¥12.22 billion, while adjusted net income reached ¥1.75 billion.
The company operated 36,310 stores at the end of the quarter. However, same-store sales declined by 5.3%, indicating that overall growth continues to depend heavily on new store openings rather than improved performance from existing locations.
The results from both companies indicate that total coffee consumption remains relatively strong. At the same time, high input costs and increasingly competitive retail conditions continue to place pressure on margins and individual store performance.