Daily Cocoa Market Report (23 April 2026): Cocoa Futures Extend Rebound but Enter Consolidation Phase with Mild Downside Bias

Cocoa futures extended their rebound on 23-Apr, building on the prior session’s reversal with a second consecutive day of gains across the curve. In New York, prices advanced in a broadly parallel move, with contracts rising by roughly +1.4% to +1.5%, indicating continued follow-through rather than localized short covering. London futures also moved higher, though with a more back-loaded profile, as deferred maturities outperformed the front, posting gains in the range of +0.8% to +1.5%. The price action reflects a controlled recovery phase, where buying interest remains present but is not yet accompanied by strong conviction or aggressive directional positioning.

Market participants increasingly point to the formation of a slightly higher trading range following the recent liquidation phase, with one dealer noting that “a new (slightly higher) trading range is currently forming in the market,” according to Reuters.

While demand signals remain mixed, Ivory Coast grind data showed a modest improvement, with March processing up 1.4% year-on-year, suggesting some stabilization at lower price levels. However, cumulative grind figures for the 2025/26 season reached 334,771 tons by end-March, down 4.8% compared to the same period last year, highlighting that overall demand recovery remains incomplete.

Futures Performance

New York Cocoa (CC)

The move from 22-Apr to 23-Apr shows clear follow-through buying in both New York and London cocoa futures, confirming that the prior session’s reversal was not an isolated event. In New York, all front-to-mid curve contracts gained roughly 49–54 points, translating into a very tight performance band of about +1.4% to +1.5%. This uniformity across maturities indicates a near-parallel upward shift in the curve rather than a distortion driven by the front end. The implication is that the initial short-covering observed on 22-Apr transitioned into broader participation on 23-Apr, with buying interest extending consistently across the strip.

London Cocoa (C)

In contrast, London cocoa futures also posted gains across all maturities but with a slightly different distribution profile. The front contract (May-26) lagged with a modest increase of around +0.8%, while deferred contracts (Sep-26 onward) advanced closer to +1.4%–1.5%. This back-end outperformance suggests a mild steepening of the London curve on 23-Apr, partially reversing the prior day’s front-loaded strength. The pattern implies that the buying in London was less about short-term positioning pressure and more indicative of a broader repricing along the curve.

US–UK July Spread

$3,453 − (£2570 x 1.346$/£) =$-6 ton (up from $-26)

Volume and Open Interest

New York Cocoa (CC)

The volume profile over the last five sessions shows a clear contraction in participation in both markets as prices moved higher. In New York, volume declines sharply from 55.6k on 17-Apr to 19.7k on 23-Apr, a substantial drop that indicates diminishing trading activity into the rebound. London follows the same directional pattern, though less extreme, with volume falling from 33.8k to 20.9k. This reduction in turnover suggests that the upward price move is occurring in a thinning liquidity environment, which typically weakens the reliability of the signal.

Open interest dynamics introduce the key differentiation. In New York, open interest through 22-Apr remains broadly stable within a 192k to 196k range, showing no sustained expansion. This lack of growth, combined with falling volume, points to a market dominated by position adjustment rather than new positioning. The rebound is therefore consistent with short covering and rolling activity, without clear evidence of fresh long exposure being established.

London Cocoa (C)

In London, the structure is more constructive. Open interest rises steadily from 222.6k on 17-Apr to 226.8k on 22-Apr, indicating that positions are being added and retained even as volume declines. This combination, lower turnover with rising open interest, typically reflects accumulation rather than liquidation and suggests that participants are building exposure with a longer holding horizon. It aligns with the stronger EFP and EFS activity previously observed, reinforcing the idea of more direct commercial or structured flow involvement.

Exchange Trading Volume

These figures refer only to ICE Deliverable Stocks (Exchange-Visible)

Readers can explore detailed cocoa market datasets, futures statistics, and historical indicators in the CocoaIntel Data Hub:

Data

📊 Grindings 📦 Inventory / Certified Stocks 🚢 Import / Export Flows ⚖️ Stock-to-Grind Ratio 📈 Futures Contracts 🔄 Futures Curve & Spreads 🧠 COT / Positioning 🚚 Port Deliveries 🌧️ Weather Dashboard 🌀 Options & Volatility 📅 Seasonality 📑 Institutional Reports 🗓️ Cocoa Calendar This section is currently under active development. We are building a structured, transparent cocoa market data platform covering futures analytics, certified stocks, positioning

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What to expect tomorrow

Expect a consolidation session with a slight downside bias.

After two days of gains, momentum has faded into the close, suggesting the market is entering a pause phase rather than extending higher immediately. The most likely scenario is an early pullback toward support at 3420–3400, with a deeper test toward 3380 if pressure builds, followed by sideways trading within the range.

On the upside, resistance is seen at 3470–3480, which capped the recent move. A break above this zone would open the way toward 3520–3550, but this requires a clear pickup in momentum and volume, which is not currently evident.

If you notice any discrepancies in these figures or have extra information, please email [email protected] or leave a comment – corrections and additional insights are always welcome.