Daily Cocoa Market Report (24 April 2026): Cocoa Futures Consolidate as Market Balances Stable Supply and Gradual Demand Recovery
Cocoa futures delivered a mixed but generally softer performance on 24-Apr, with New York showing a split curve and London posting a broad-based decline. In New York, the nearby May-26 contract extended gains by +0.65%, while the rest of the curve retreated modestly in a tight range of around -0.39% to -0.46%, producing a front-supported structure against deferred weakness. London, by contrast, saw uniform losses across all maturities, with declines ranging approximately from -0.75% to -0.89%, reflecting a more classical correction following the prior session’s strength. On a broader view, the move represents a loss of upside momentum rather than a reversal, with prices entering a consolidation phase after the synchronized rally on 23-Apr.
Friday’s session was marked by a lack of fresh catalysts, leaving price action largely technical and in consolidation mode. The broader weekly backdrop, however, remains defined by a mix of stable supply signals, tentative demand improvement, and ongoing structural uncertainty.
On the supply side, Ivory Coast arrivals reached 1.482 million tons as of April 19, effectively flat year-on-year (+0.1%), pointing to steady but not expanding availability. At the same time, the CRA maintained a surplus outlook of 378k tons for 2025/26 and 265k tons for 2026/27, reinforcing the perception of a well-supplied forward balance. Expana slightly adjusted this view, trimming its surplus estimate by 14k tons, but not enough to materially shift the narrative. Additional pressure is visible at origin, with Cameroon farmgate prices dropping below CFA 1,500/kg, indicating weaker local pricing power.
Weather remains a key uncertainty. Uneven rainfall in West Africa, particularly below-average precipitation in parts of Ivory Coast, raises concerns about mid-crop quality rather than outright volume, which could introduce localized tightness later in the season. Policy developments are also in focus, with Ivory Coast considering a move to quarterly farmgate price reviews, a shift that could increase price responsiveness to market conditions.
On the demand side, signals are mixed but gradually improving. Ivory Coast grind data showed a +1.4% YoY increase in March, suggesting some stabilization at lower price levels. However, cumulative grind for the season is still down 4.8% YoY, confirming that the recovery is partial and uneven. At the same time, emerging market demand is strengthening, supported by robust growth in Ghana’s processed cocoa exports in value terms, indicating resilience in downstream consumption.
Overall, the weekly flow points to a market where supply remains broadly adequate, demand is stabilizing but not fully recovered, and weather introduces selective risk, reinforcing the current range-bound and consolidation-driven price environment.
Futures Performance
New York Cocoa (CC)
| Contract | 23-Apr Close | 24-Apr Close# | Δ (pts) | Δ (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May-26 | 3,378 | 3,400 | +22 | +0.65% |
| Jul-26 | 3,453 | 3,437 | -16 | -0.46% |
| Sep-26 | 3,517 | 3,502 | -15 | -0.43% |
| Dec-26 | 3,598 | 3,584 | -14 | -0.39% |
| Mar-27 | 3,642 | 3,627 | -15 | -0.41% |
The 24-Apr session in New York shows a clear divergence between the front and the rest of the curve. While May-26 extended higher by +22 points, the forward structure softened consistently, with deferred contracts declining in a tight band of roughly -14 to -16 points (-0.39% to -0.46%). This configuration indicates a front-led resilience, likely tied to nearby tightness or short-term positioning, while the broader curve underwent a modest correction following the prior session’s uniform strength. The shift suggests a localized bid in the prompt contract rather than continuation of the parallel upward move observed on 23-Apr, effectively introducing mild backwardation pressure at the front.
London Cocoa (C)
| Contract | 23-Apr Close | 24-Apr Close# | Δ (pts) | Δ (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May-26 | 2,527 | 2,508 | -19 | -0.75% |
| Jul-26 | 2,570 | 2,553 | -17 | -0.66% |
| Sep-26 | 2,592 | 2,569 | -23 | -0.89% |
| Dec-26 | 2,615 | 2,593 | -22 | -0.84% |
| Mar-27 | 2,640 | 2,619 | -21 | -0.80% |
In contrast, London cocoa futures posted a broad-based pullback across all maturities on 24-Apr. Losses were relatively uniform but slightly more pronounced in the mid-to-back end (Sep-26 onward), with declines clustering between -0.75% and -0.89%. This pattern reflects a more classical parallel downward shift of the curve, undoing part of the prior session’s gains. The absence of front-end support, unlike New York, suggests weaker nearby demand dynamics or less pronounced short-covering activity. Overall, the move implies a normalization phase following the earlier rally, with selling pressure distributed evenly rather than concentrated in specific maturities.
US–UK July Spread
$3,400 − (£2553 x 1.346$/£) =$-54 ton (down from $-6)
Volume and Open Interest
New York Cocoa (CC)
| Date | Volume | Open Interest |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 18 | 55,615 | 192,436 |
| Apr 21 | 33,649 | 194,519 |
| Apr 22 | 31,538 | 195,210 |
| Apr 23 | 19,695 | 195,763 |
| Apr 24 | 21,842 | — |
Volume shows a clear contraction trend from 55.6k → ~20k, indicating fading participation after the mid-month peak. Despite this, open interest increased steadily (192k → 195.8k through 23-Apr), pointing to net position build rather than liquidation. The slight volume uptick on 24-Apr does not alter the broader picture of low engagement. Overall, this combination suggests quiet accumulation under thinning liquidity, rather than aggressive directional conviction.
London Cocoa (C)
| Date | Volume | Open Interest |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 18 | 33,802 | 222,627 |
| Apr 21 | 24,133 | 226,088 |
| Apr 22 | 26,538 | 226,819 |
| Apr 23 | 20,891 | 228,702 |
| Apr 24 | 18,767 | — |
Volume also declined (33.8k → 18.8k), but the drop is more orderly. In contrast, open interest rose consistently (222.6k → 228.7k), showing a clear expansion of positioning. The divergence between falling volume and rising open interest indicates new positions being added at a measured pace, likely longer-term or structurally driven rather than short-term trading flow.
COT Analysis
The latest COT data shows a continued divergence between commercial hedging and speculative positioning, with implications tilted mildly bearish but stabilizing.
Non-commercials (specs) remain net short, with longs at 35.9k versus shorts at 59.9k, reflecting a clear bearish bias. Importantly, over the week they reduced shorts (-1.36k) and added longs (+1.24k), indicating short-covering and early re-risking rather than fresh conviction selling. However, the net position is still meaningfully negative, so the broader speculative stance has not flipped.
Commercials are net long (113.6k vs 91.4k) and increased both sides, but notably added more shorts (+3.8k) than longs (+0.6k). This suggests active hedging into strength, consistent with producers or trade selling rallies rather than chasing downside. Their positioning remains structurally supportive but not aggressively bullish.
Open interest was essentially flat (-338), confirming that recent changes are more reallocation of positions than new risk entering the market.
The setup points to a market where bearish positioning is being reduced but not reversed, while commercials continue to provide supply on rallies. This aligns with a consolidation phase with limited upside follow-through, unless specs continue to cover shorts more aggressively.
Cocoa Intel
Exchange Trading Volume
| Market | 23-APR-2026 | 24-APR-2026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| US (NY Cocoa) | 2,621,250 | 2,615,208 | -6,042 |
| UK (London Cocoa) | 684,844 | 684,844 | 0 |
These figures refer only to ICE Deliverable Stocks (Exchange-Visible)
Readers can explore detailed cocoa market datasets, futures statistics, and historical indicators in the CocoaIntel Data Hub:
Cocoa IntelWhat to expect tomorrow
Price action is most likely to remain range-bound with a slight upward bias in the near term, as the market transitions out of a sharp downtrend into a consolidation phase. The structure suggests continued rotation around the 3400–3480 area, with incremental attempts to push higher but without strong momentum behind them. A break above 3480–3500 would be required to shift the tone toward a more sustained recovery, opening room toward the mid-3500s. Conversely, failure to hold 3400 would signal that the broader bearish trend is reasserting itself, exposing a move back toward the 3300–3350 zone. Until either boundary is decisively broken, expect choppy, corrective price action with limited directional conviction.
If you notice any discrepancies in these figures or have extra information, please email [email protected] or leave a comment – corrections and additional insights are always welcome.
