Improving West African Supply Outlook Weighs on Cocoa Market Sentiment (29 May 2026)

Cocoa futures extended their decline on Friday, with both New York and London contracts posting sharp losses across the curve. July New York cocoa fell 170 points (-4.2%) to close at 3,901, while July London cocoa declined 111 points (-3.6%) to 2,978. Selling pressure intensified throughout the session, with prices breaking below recent consolidation levels and closing near the day's lows. The decline was accompanied by increased trading volume and elevated spread activity, indicating active repositioning and risk reduction by market participants ahead of the weekend.

Fundamental news remained limited on Friday, leaving weather conditions and West African supply flows as the primary drivers of market sentiment.

Ivory Coast arrivals continue to point to improving supply availability. According to exporter estimates, cumulative cocoa arrivals at Ivorian ports reached 1.637 million metric tons as of 24 May, up 2.2% compared with the same period last season. Deliveries to the ports of Abidjan and San Pedro totaled approximately 34,000 metric tons during the week of 18–24 May, compared with 20,000 metric tons during the corresponding week last year. The continued increase in arrivals reinforces expectations that physical supplies remain more available than previously anticipated.

Weather forecasts also remain supportive for crop development across West Africa. Current forecast models indicate widespread rainfall across Côte d'Ivoire, Ghana, Nigeria, and Cameroon over the next two weeks. Many cocoa-growing regions are expected to receive substantial precipitation, maintaining favorable soil moisture levels and supporting pod development during the ongoing mid-crop period.

While weather conditions have improved considerably, favorable rainfall alone does not guarantee a strong recovery in cocoa production. Tree health and farm maintenance remain critical factors influencing yields. Following several years of disease pressure, aging tree stock, and financial strain on growers, concerns remain that fertilizer application, pest control, pruning, and replanting efforts may remain below optimal levels. As a result, the beneficial impact of abundant rainfall could be partially offset by lower farm investment, limiting the extent to which improved weather translates into higher cocoa output.

Cocoa Weather

Cocoa Weather Forecast & Crop Impact Analysis Track cocoa weather conditions across Ivory Coast, Ghana, Brazil, and Indonesia, with crop-focused analysis of rainfall, temperature, drought risk, and market impact. West Africa cocoa weather analysis Ivory Coast Weather Forecast (Cocoa Belt) Ivory Coast is the largest cocoa producer globally, so rainfall, temperature,

CocoaIntelCocoa Intel

Futures Performance

Cocoa futures ended the week under significant pressure, with both New York and London markets posting broad-based declines across the curve. The selloff was most pronounced in nearby contracts, reflecting continued liquidation of long positions and a deterioration in near-term sentiment.

New York Cocoa (CC)

In New York, the benchmark July 2026 contract fell 170 points (-4.2%) from Thursday's close, settling after trading down to an intraday low of 3,895. Deferred contracts also weakened, with losses ranging from 154 to 166 points through mid-2027. The decline was accompanied by strong participation, with total market volume rising to 46,096 lots, compared with 37,964 lots on the previous session, indicating active position adjustment rather than simply a lack of buying interest.

London Cocoa (C)

London cocoa mirrored the weakness. The July 2026 contract declined 111 points (-3.6%), while most deferred contracts lost 124–130 points. Total London volume increased to 33,515 lots from 28,673 lots on Thursday, suggesting that selling pressure was widespread across the curve.

Despite the sharp price decline, the structure of both markets remained relatively orderly. Spread activity increased in both exchanges, particularly in New York where spread volume rose to 28,999 lots from 24,512 lots, indicating continued calendar-spread repositioning rather than signs of market stress or disorderly liquidation.

EFP, EFS and Spread Activity

Friday's activity showed a clear divergence between exchange-for-physical (EFP) activity and futures spread trading. In both New York and London, spread transactions represented the dominant component of market activity, highlighting that much of the day's trading was related to position management, contract rolling, and curve restructuring rather than outright speculative buying or selling.

In New York cocoa, spread volume reached 28,999 lots, accounting for a substantial share of total trading activity. By comparison, EFP volume was relatively limited at 194 lots, while EFS activity was almost non-existent at only 16 lots. The sharp decline in outright prices combined with elevated spread activity suggests that participants were actively repositioning along the curve amid the selloff rather than aggressively establishing new directional exposure.

London cocoa displayed a somewhat different pattern. Spread activity remained elevated at 22,163 lots, but the most notable feature was the exceptionally strong EFP volume of 3,902 lots. Such elevated EFP activity often reflects increased engagement from commercial participants transferring risk between the physical and futures markets. The absence of EFS activity indicates that OTC swap-related hedging played little role in Friday's trading.

US–UK July Spread

$3,901 − (£2,978 x 1.346$/£) =$-107ton

Volume and Open Interest

New York Cocoa (CC)

Trading activity increased significantly during the week, with volume reaching a high of 56,195 lots on 27 May before declining on 28 May and recovering on Friday. Open interest peaked at 202,939 lots on 26 May and subsequently declined over the following two sessions. This pattern suggests that some participants were reducing exposure before Friday's sharp price decline. The increase in volume on 29 May indicates strong market participation during the selloff, although the absence of open interest data prevents confirmation of whether the move was driven primarily by long liquidation or new short selling.

London Cocoa (C)

London cocoa exhibited a different market structure during the week. While volumes remained relatively stable, open interest increased consistently from 214,346 lots on 22 May to 217,894 lots on 28 May. This steady build in open interest suggests continued position creation and sustained market participation despite declining prices. Friday's increase in volume to 33,515 lots indicates active trading during the selloff. Once the 29 May open interest figures become available, they will help determine whether market participants continued adding positions or began liquidating exposure following the sharp decline in prices.

COT Analysis

The latest COT report, reflecting positions as of Tuesday, 26 May 2026, showed that speculative funds remained heavily bearish cocoa. Non-commercial traders held a net short position of 22,106 contracts, with short positions exceeding longs by nearly 64%. This indicates that managed money and other speculative participants were already positioned for additional downside before the sharp decline that occurred later in the week.

Commercial participants remained net long 20,970 contracts, continuing to take the opposite side of speculative selling. Historically, this structure is often observed when commercial hedgers view prices as becoming more attractive relative to underlying physical market fundamentals.

Open interest increased by 11,365 contracts during the reporting week to 258,176 contracts, suggesting that new positions were being added to the market rather than existing positions simply being closed. The large increase in spreading activity, which rose by 6,500 contracts, also indicates active curve trading and roll management by speculative participants.

Cocoa COT Report (Commitment of Traders)

Weekly Cocoa COT report showing speculative funds and commercial trader positions in ICE US and ICE Europe cocoa futures.

CocoaIntelCocoa Intel

Exchange Trading Volume

These figures refer only to ICE Deliverable Stocks (Exchange-Visible)

Readers can explore detailed cocoa market datasets, futures statistics, and historical indicators in the CocoaIntel Data Hub:

Data

📊 Grindings 📦 Inventory / Certified Stocks 🚢 Import / Export Flows ⚖️ Stock-to-Grind Ratio 📈 Futures Contracts 🔄 Futures Curve & Spreads 🧠 COT / Positioning 🚚 Port Deliveries 🌧️ Weather Dashboard 🌀 Options & Volatility 📅 Seasonality 📑 Institutional Reports 🗓️ Cocoa Calendar This section is currently under active development. We are building a structured, transparent cocoa market data platform covering futures analytics, certified stocks, positioning

CocoaIntelCocoa Intel

Cocoa Market Outlook for Monday

Heading into Monday, cocoa futures remain under pressure following Friday's broad-based selloff, which was accompanied by increased trading volume and heavy spread activity across both New York and London markets. Technically, July New York cocoa closed near session lows at 3,923, maintaining the pattern of lower highs and lower lows that has developed since mid-May. Rising certified stocks in both the U.S. and U.K. continue to provide a bearish fundamental backdrop, while the latest COT report showed speculative funds already holding a sizeable net short position as of Tuesday, suggesting bearish sentiment was established before the late-week decline. Although the market appears oversold on shorter-term indicators and could see some bargain hunting early in the week, sentiment remains cautious and rallies toward the 4,000 area are likely to encounter selling interest unless supported by a meaningful shift in volume, open interest, or fundamental news.

If you notice any discrepancies in these figures or have extra information, please email [email protected] or leave a comment – corrections and additional insights are always welcome.