Ivory Coast Expects 10.5% Cocoa Production Increase, Rainfall Improves Mid-Crop Outlook (22 May 2026)
- Ivory Coast expects cocoa production to increase 10.5% during the 2025/26 season, with output projected between 2.0 and 2.1 million metric tons.
- Reuters reported that improving rainfall across Ivory Coast is supporting expectations for a stronger-than-expected mid-crop harvest.
- ECMWF forecasts show widespread moderate-to-heavy rainfall across West Africa over the next two weeks, supporting cocoa tree recovery and pod development.
Cocoa futures rebounded sharply on Friday, 22-May-2026, recovering a significant portion of Thursday’s heavy liquidation losses as buying interest returned across both ICE US and ICE Europe markets. In New York, the front-month Jul-26 cocoa contract closed at 3,818, up 75 points or +2.00% from the previous session, while deferred contracts posted even stronger gains, with Mar-27 rising +2.32% and May-27 advancing +2.41%. London cocoa futures also finished higher, although with more moderate gains, as Jul-26 increased +0.11% and Mar-27 gained +0.62%. The recovery was accompanied by stronger volume and rising open interest, suggesting fresh positioning entered the market rather than a purely technical short-covering bounce.
Ivory Coast Production Outlook
Reuters reported that Ivory Coast expects cocoa production to rise by 10.5% during the 2025/26 season, with output projected between 2.0 and 2.1 million metric tons. According to CCC Director Yves Brahima Koné, higher cocoa prices over the past two seasons enabled farmers to invest more heavily in fertilizers and plantation management, supporting improved yields. Current port arrivals have already exceeded 1.7 million tons as of May 11, substantially ahead of the previous two seasons.
The report was viewed as moderately bearish for longer-term supply expectations, particularly as traders also cited large volumes of cocoa beans remaining unsold in Ivory Coast following recent market volatility. Increased producer selling could eventually translate into higher visible stocks in European warehouses in the coming weeks.
However, the outlook for the next season remains uncertain. Survey teams reportedly observed pod survival rates slightly below last year’s levels, while drought conditions have reduced flower and pod development in several regions. Farmers interviewed by Reuters also warned that current weather conditions remain concerning for the upcoming main crop cycle, suggesting that structural supply risks have not fully disappeared despite expectations for improved production this season.
Weather Conditions
Reuters reported that improving rainfall across Ivory Coast is supporting expectations for a stronger mid-crop harvest, providing a modestly bearish influence on cocoa prices. Farmers stated that although rainfall remained below historical averages in several regions, precipitation intensity improved compared with previous weeks, helping pod development and boosting optimism for bean arrivals during the final stage of the mid-crop.
According to farmers interviewed by Reuters, many pods are now nearing maturity and warehouse arrivals have started increasing in some producing regions. Producers indicated that if rainfall continues to improve through June, the mid-crop could deliver a larger-than-expected harvest despite earlier weather concerns. Average rainfall in the western region of Soubré — a key cocoa-producing area — significantly exceeded the five-year average last week, reinforcing expectations for improved crop conditions.
However, weather patterns remain uneven across the country, with several central and southern regions still receiving below-average rainfall. Farmers also noted that soil moisture remains fragile in some areas following earlier drought stress. While the report improves short-term supply expectations for the ongoing mid-crop, uncertainty surrounding the next main crop cycle and long-term pod development continues to support underlying structural concerns in the cocoa market.
Two-Week Weather Forecast
Weather forecasts for the next two weeks remain broadly supportive for West African cocoa development, particularly across Ivory Coast and Ghana. The ECMWF rainfall accumulation model shows widespread moderate-to-heavy precipitation extending across the main cocoa belt through early June, with several producing regions expected to receive between 75 mm and 150+ mm of rainfall. Central and western Ivory Coast, including key cocoa-growing zones near Daloa, Yamoussoukro, and Soubré, appear positioned to benefit from consistent moisture recharge following earlier dryness concerns.
The current pattern is generally favorable for the ongoing mid-crop, as improving soil moisture should support pod filling, bean development, and tree recovery ahead of the next main crop cycle. Ghana also appears set to receive stable precipitation coverage, reducing immediate drought stress risks across producing areas.
Cocoa Intel
Futures Performance
Friday’s cocoa session marked a meaningful stabilization after the aggressive liquidation observed on Thursday. Both ICE US and ICE Europe cocoa futures closed higher across the forward curve, although the strength profile differed materially between New York and London. The recovery was strongest in deferred New York contracts, suggesting that institutional participants remain focused on persistent medium-term supply tightness rather than short-term macro weakness.
New York Cocoa (CC)
| Contract | 21-May | 22-May | Point Change | % Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul-26 | 3,743 | 3,818 | +75 | +2.00% |
| Sep-26 | 3,814 | 3,886 | +72 | +1.89% |
| Dec-26 | 3,903 | 3,982 | +79 | +2.02% |
| Mar-27 | 3,957 | 4,049 | +92 | +2.32% |
| May-27 | 3,981 | 4,077 | +96 | +2.41% |
In New York cocoa, the nearby Jul-26 contract recovered from 3,743 to 3,818, a gain of 75 points or 2.00%. Strength broadened further along the curve, with Dec-26 rising 2.02%, Mar-27 gaining 2.32%, and May-27 advancing 2.41%. The stronger percentage gains in deferred contracts are particularly important because they indicate the market continues to price elevated forward risk into the 2026/27 season. Rather than flattening, the curve retained its bullish structure despite the previous session’s heavy selloff.
London Cocoa (C)
| Contract | 21-May | 22-May | Point Change | % Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul-26 | 2,855 | 2,858 | +3 | +0.11% |
| Sep-26 | 2,852 | 2,854 | +2 | +0.07% |
| Dec-26 | 2,880 | 2,891 | +11 | +0.38% |
| Mar-27 | 2,919 | 2,937 | +18 | +0.62% |
| May-27 | 2,945 | 2,956 | +11 | +0.37% |
London cocoa futures also finished higher across the curve, although gains were more moderate compared with ICE US. Jul-26 increased only 0.11%, while Sep-26 gained 0.07%. Deferred contracts performed better, with Mar-27 advancing 0.62%, the strongest move within the London strip. This relative underperformance versus New York suggests London remained more commercially anchored, while speculative participation was more aggressive in the US market.
Nevertheless, London market structure remains supportive. The forward curve continues to maintain elevated deferred pricing, indicating ongoing concern regarding future cocoa availability and physical coverage needs. Total London volume increased sharply by nearly 35%, rising from 21,562 to 29,084 contracts, while open interest also edged higher. The combination of rising prices, stronger volume, and stable-to-higher open interest suggests the market continues to attract participation despite elevated volatility.
EFP, EFS and Spread Activity
New York Cocoa (CC)
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| EFP | 244 |
| EFS | 203 |
| Spread Volume | 23,712 |
| Total Volume | 37,895 |
| Spread % of Total Volume | 62.6% |
In New York, spread activity remained elevated at 23,712 lots, representing 62.6% of total volume, indicating active rolling and calendar spread positioning across the curve. EFP volume reached 244 lots, while EFS activity totaled 203 lots, reflecting continued use of futures for physical and swap-related hedging.
London Cocoa (C)
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| EFP | 1,210 |
| EFS | 309 |
| Spread Volume | 20,281 |
| Total Volume | 30,716 |
| Spread % of Total Volume | 66.0% |
In London, spread volume totaled 20,281 lots, accounting for 66.0% of total trading activity. EFP activity was notably stronger at 1,210 lots, while EFS volume reached 309 lots, highlighting continued commercial hedging and forward positioning activity in the London market.
US–UK July Spread
$3,818 − (£2,858 x 1.343$/£) =$-20ton
Volume and Open Interest
New York Cocoa (CC)
| Date | Total Volume | Open Interest |
|---|---|---|
| May 16 | 53,932 | 193,833 |
| May 19 | 37,895 | 193,578 |
| May 20 | 31,784 | 194,748 |
| May 21 | 37,288 | 196,240 |
| May 22 | 44,771 | 199,981 |
New York cocoa trading activity recovered meaningfully into Friday’s session following the sharp slowdown earlier in the week. Total volume increased from 37,288 contracts on Thursday to 44,771 contracts on Friday, while open interest rose from 196,240 to 199,981 contracts. The increase in both volume and open interest suggests fresh positioning entered the market during the rebound rather than the move being driven solely by short covering.
Despite the recovery, overall activity remains below the elevated participation levels seen earlier in May, when daily volumes exceeded 60,000 contracts. This indicates that while buying interest returned, institutional participation has not yet fully normalized following the recent volatility shock across cocoa markets.
London Cocoa (C)
| Date | Total Volume | Open Interest |
|---|---|---|
| May 16 | 34,331 | 210,656 |
| May 19 | 30,716 | 212,299 |
| May 20 | 20,168 | 212,579 |
| May 21 | 21,562 | 213,099 |
| May 22 | 29,084 | 214,346 |
London cocoa futures also showed improving activity into Friday, with volume recovering to 29,084 contracts from 21,562 on Thursday. Open interest continued to climb steadily, reaching 214,346 contracts. The increase in both volume and open interest suggests participants remain engaged in forward positioning despite elevated volatility and recent liquidation pressure across the cocoa complex.
London cocoa futures showed a similar recovery pattern. Total volume increased from 21,562 contracts on Thursday to 29,084 contracts on Friday, while open interest rose from 213,099 to 214,346 contracts. The rebound in volume confirms renewed engagement from both commercial and speculative participants after several quieter sessions earlier in the week.
Importantly, London open interest has now recovered steadily from the mid-May lows near 208,000 contracts, suggesting participants continue to maintain forward exposure despite elevated market volatility. The rise in both exchanges’ open interest alongside higher prices reinforces the view that the market remains structurally supported by ongoing supply uncertainty and forward coverage demand.
COT Positioning
Latest CFTC Commitments of Traders data for the week ending 19-May-2026 showed continued defensive positioning across the cocoa market following the recent volatility and liquidation pressure.
Non-commercial traders reduced bullish exposure, with managed money long positions declining by 3,971 contracts to 54,921 lots. Short positions also decreased by 1,435 contracts to 83,802 lots, while spread positions fell by 1,008 contracts to 117,810 lots. The data indicates that speculative participants continued to reduce overall exposure amid elevated market volatility rather than aggressively rebuilding directional long positions.
The non-commercial category remains net short by 28,881 contracts, highlighting that speculative sentiment toward cocoa remains cautious despite Friday’s recovery rally. The reduction in both longs and shorts suggests ongoing position liquidation and risk reduction rather than strong conviction in either direction.
Commercial participants modestly increased long exposure by 584 contracts to 97,856 lots while reducing short positions by 2,295 contracts to 235,655 lots. The decline in commercial shorts may indicate some producer hedging slowdown following the recent sharp price correction, although commercials remain heavily net short overall as expected in structurally supply-sensitive agricultural markets.
Total open interest declined by 4,611 contracts week-over-week to 246,811 lots, confirming that the broader market experienced net liquidation during the reporting period. This aligns with the sharp price declines and elevated volatility observed across cocoa futures during the week.
Cocoa IntelExchange Trading Volume
| Market | 21-May-2026 | 22-May-2026 | Change | Change (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| US (NY Cocoa) | 2,692,616 | 2,704,116 | +11,500 | +0.43% |
| UK (London Cocoa) | 574,219 | 574,219 | 0 | 0.00% |
These figures refer only to ICE Deliverable Stocks (Exchange-Visible)
Readers can explore detailed cocoa market datasets, futures statistics, and historical indicators in the CocoaIntel Data Hub:
Cocoa IntelCocoa Market Outlook for Tuesday
Cocoa futures are expected to open Tuesday with a cautiously constructive tone following Friday’s recovery session, although volatility is likely to remain elevated. The market successfully stabilized above the key 3700–3750 support zone and intraday momentum improved into the close, suggesting potential for another test of the 3825–3850 resistance area. A break above that zone could trigger further short covering toward 3900, while failure to sustain gains above 3770 may bring renewed selling pressure back toward 3700. Overall, the short-term bias has shifted modestly bullish after Friday’s rebound, but the broader trend remains corrective until cocoa can reclaim higher resistance levels more decisively.
If you notice any discrepancies in these figures or have extra information, please email [email protected] or leave a comment – corrections and additional insights are always welcome.
