Nearby supply tightness drives a strong start to the week (17 August 2026)
Coffee futures opened the week higher across both New York and London, supported primarily by technical buying and position adjustments ahead of the September delivery period. Arabica recorded the stronger performance, particularly in the nearby contract, as declining certified stocks and reduced September liquidity continued to increase the premium for immediately available coffee.
ICE Arabica September gained 7.00 cents, or just over 2%, to settle at 345.10 cents per pound after trading between 338.10 and 354.00 cents. December rose 3.60 cents, or 1.15%, to close at 317.90 cents, with an intraday range of 313.70 to 324.90 cents. The stronger performance of September widened the September–December spread to 27.20 cents from 23.80 cents on Friday. The spread reached 29.10 cents intraday, compared with levels close to 16 cents at the beginning of the previous week.
The widening backwardation remains the clearest signal from the arabica market. September open interest has fallen to approximately 13,000 contracts, while December already holds more than 91,000 positions, confirming that the rollover is well advanced. However, the tightness is not limited entirely to the expiring contract. The September–March spread widened to 38.90 cents, while December maintained an 11.70-cent premium over March, indicating that the market continues to assign considerable value to coffee available during the coming months.
The approaching September delivery-notice period, expected to begin on Friday, August 21, is likely to keep the front of the curve volatile. As liquidity declines, relatively small orders can produce larger price movements. The critical question is whether the remaining short positions can secure sufficient deliverable coffee or whether longs choose to maintain their exposure into the notification period.
Certified arabica stocks provided further support, declining by another 105 bags to 231,340 bags. This marked the 38th consecutive trading session of falling ICE inventories. A further 4,530 bags were awaiting certification, but this volume remains limited relative to the cumulative stock decline and the open interest still present in the nearby contracts. Unless new certified coffee begins to arrive in greater quantities, the low inventory base is likely to preserve the premium in the front spreads.
New York trading volume reached 38,167 contracts, almost 10,900 fewer than during Friday’s session. The combination of lower volume, reduced September liquidity and a wide intraday range illustrates the increasing influence of delivery-related positioning. December’s inability to maintain its move above 324 cents also showed that the broader market remains less aggressive than the September contract.
Robusta futures also recovered in London, interrupting the decline recorded during the previous week. November initially fell to $3,574 per tonne before reversing to a high of $3,674 and settling at $3,644, up $50 or 1.39%. September closed at $3,670 per tonne. London volume reached 26,166 contracts, with 14,090 lots traded in November and 5,280 in September.
Unlike arabica, the front of the robusta curve showed less pressure. The September–November spread narrowed to $26 per tonne from $32, suggesting that the London rally was driven more by technical recovery than by an intensification of nearby scarcity. Nevertheless, renewed weather concerns in Southeast Asia and the recovery above $3,600 helped restore a more constructive short-term tone.
Brazilian export activity remained strong during the first half of August. Cecafé data indicated that shipments had reached approximately 1.309 million bags by August 17, including around 868,000 bags of arabica, 339,000 bags of robusta and 102,000 bags of soluble coffee. Robusta shipments have accelerated particularly sharply compared with July, supporting expectations for a strong monthly total.
The improved export flow confirms that Brazil continues to supply substantial commercial volumes, but it does not directly resolve the tightness in New York. Exported coffee may already be committed to buyers, may not meet ICE specifications or may not be positioned within the exchange delivery system. This explains why Brazilian shipments can increase while certified arabica inventories continue to decline.
Brazil’s domestic physical market remained slow despite the futures advance, with good-quality coffee in southern Minas Gerais indicated near R$1,950 per 60-kilogram bag. The decline of the US dollar against the Brazilian real did not generate a major increase in producer selling, suggesting that physical holders remain selective even at elevated futures levels.
In Colombia, coffee exports continued without significant interruption following the recent earthquake. Operations at the Port of Buenaventura resumed after preventive inspections of its main terminals, while Cartagena and Santa Marta continued handling shipments normally. The Buga–Buenaventura highway is reopening gradually with restricted traffic, but the country’s export capacity remains operational. As Buenaventura handles approximately 60% of Colombian coffee exports, the resumption of activity removes a potentially important logistical risk.
Weather attention is increasingly shifting toward Brazil’s 2027 crop as the current harvest approaches completion. Rainfall is expected to return gradually to São Paulo, southern Minas Gerais and other coffee-producing regions, particularly from August 20 onward. Improved moisture would support soil conditions before the main flowering period, although earlier rains in June and July have already caused some out-of-season flowering.
Irregular flowering can produce uneven crop development and increase uncertainty over fruit retention, harvesting and quality. The market will therefore focus not only on rainfall totals but also on the consistency and geographical distribution of precipitation. Concerns surrounding a potentially strong El Niño event are also beginning to influence expectations, although the impact on future production remains uncertain at this stage.