Arabica Rebounds as Nearby Premiums Widen (21 October 2026)
December Arabica dipped below 310 cents early on Wednesday before buyers regained control. The contract recovered to settle at 316.15 cents/lb, up 1.56%, reversing Tuesday’s losses and leaving New York close to its recent highs.
London continued to weaken. November Robusta fell to $3,352/t, while January settled at $3,364/t, extending the divergence between the two markets.
December leads New York’s recovery
The strength in Arabica centred on December. Its premium over March widened from 12.30 to 14.90 cents/lb, an increase of 21.1%, while the December/May premium reached 19.95 cents. Buyers continued to place a higher value on nearby delivery, even as later contracts recorded more modest gains.
London’s spreads told a different story. November remained below January, although its discount narrowed slightly, while January strengthened relative to March. Together with the opposing outright price moves, this widened the gap between December Arabica and November Robusta to approximately 164.11 cents/lb from 156.63.
Published trading volumes reached 41,641 lots in New York and 28,778 in London. The latest positioning figures, however, cover Tuesday, before Arabica’s rebound. They showed total New York open interest rising by 1,528 lots to 170,911, with December positions declining as March and May expanded.
The shift towards later delivery was particularly visible in London. November open interest fell by 4,780 lots to 14,851, while January gained 984 to reach 48,816. January was therefore taking a larger share of outstanding positions as November approached delivery.
Wednesday’s clearest development was December Arabica’s ability to recover its losses while rebuilding its premium over later months. London continued to face selling pressure, keeping the two markets on different paths.
