Cocoa Extends Recovery Amid West African Weather Risks (20 October 2026)

Cocoa extended its recovery on Tuesday, 20 October, although both markets surrendered part of their intraday gains. New York December rebounded from an early low of $5,634/t, accelerated through $5,800 and reached $5,903 before easing back towards $5,800 late in the session. It settled at $5,801, up $114 (+2.00%). London December gained £47 (+1.11%) to £4,300/t after trading between £4,200 and £4,395. The advance attracted stronger turnover in both markets, but the retreat from the highs and December’s underperformance against deferred contracts left the recovery short of a convincing nearby tightening signal.

My assessment is that West African weather concerns, alongside last week’s stronger-than-expected European and Asian grindings, helped support cocoa price rise. Insufficient rainfall threatens developing pods and the duration of the main crop, while recovering industrial bean use increases the supply needed to rebuild inventories. Together, these factors leave the market more sensitive to disappointing production and arrivals, although their individual contributions to Tuesday’s advance cannot be isolated.