Cocoa Falls Despite Crop Risks (22 October 2026)
Cocoa erased the week’s recovery on Thursday, 22 October, as selling persisted and intraday rebounds failed to hold. New York December fell $261 (4.47%) to $5,582/t. After reaching $5,830, the contract broke below $5,750 and $5,700, with subsequent recoveries towards $5,650 giving way to renewed pressure. Settlement was just $35 above the $5,547 low, while the last trade at $5,607 represented only a partial rebound. London December lost £164 (3.78%) to £4,176/t after trading between £4,147 and £4,368. Both markets settled near the bottom of their daily ranges, leaving the earlier recovery substantially weakened.
Our assessment is that rising U.S. warehouse inventories remain a counterweight to weather concerns and stronger grindings. Thursday’s report put total licensed-warehouse stocks at 3.656 million bags, up 20,606, while certified stocks remained unchanged at 595,614 bags. The broader warehouse build therefore did not increase certified availability that day. Forecasts still indicated sporadic rainfall across Côte d’Ivoire and Ghana, alongside possible net drying in some areas, leaving crop risks unresolved. Stronger processing increases future bean requirements, but existing inventories can cushion that demand. Thursday’s reversal weakens the price recovery without establishing that the crop outlook has improved; sustained stock drawdowns and stronger nearby spreads would provide firmer evidence of tightening.
