Cocoa Recovers as Stronger Bean Demand Raises the Stakes for the Main Crop (21 October 2026)
Cocoa futures extended their recovery on Wednesday, 21 October, with both markets settling near their session highs. New York December reversed an early decline to $5,654/t, recovering unevenly before stronger late-session buying lifted prices towards $5,859. Settlement reached $5,843/t, up $42 (+0.72%), with last trade at $5,839. London December gained £40 (+0.93%) to settle at £4,340/t after trading between £4,194 and £4,344. Both contracts finished higher but remained below Tuesday’s highs, leaving the recovery short of an upside breakout.
Wednesday strengthened the near-term recovery: December outperformed deferred contracts in both markets, with London also showing clearer spread improvement over the week. This occurred alongside expanding deliverable availability—U.S. certified stocks reached 595,614 bags, while London valid stocks rose to 80,270 tonnes in Tuesday’s report. Firmer nearby pricing therefore coexists with replenishment of exchange-eligible supply, leaving physical tightening unconfirmed. New York’s subdued turnover also limits conviction. Our short-term assessment has improved, while the broader supply outlook remains unresolved. The next test is whether nearby discounts continue to narrow as deliverable stocks grow, supported by more sustained market participation.
