Cocoa Steadies as ICCO Trims Surplus Forecast and Ivory Coast Supply Improves (1 June 2026)

• Cocoa futures stabilized after Friday's selloff as early gains faded into the close.

• Ivory Coast rainfall remained below average but continued to support mid-crop development and bean quality.

• ICCO reduced its 2024/25 global cocoa surplus forecast to 48,000 tonnes from 75,000 tonnes, citing lower production and higher grindings.

• Ivory Coast cocoa arrivals reached 1.659 million tonnes as of 31-May, running 2.2% ahead of last season.

• Ecuador exported 32,175 tonnes of cocoa beans in April, highlighting continued strength in origin supply flows.

• Barry Callebaut expects 1-3% volume growth over the next 12-18 months, signaling resilient downstream chocolate demand.

Cocoa futures stabilized on 01-Jun following Friday's sharp selloff. Both New York and London markets traded higher early in the session, but gains faded as the day progressed, leaving prices little changed by the close. Trading activity remained elevated, particularly in New York, while strong spread volume continued to point toward contract rolling and position adjustment rather than fresh directional conviction. Overall, the session was characterized by consolidation as the market digested recent losses.

Weather Update

Weather conditions in Ivory Coast provided modest support to the cocoa outlook, according to Reuters. Although rainfall remained below average across most growing regions last week, farmers reported that moisture levels were sufficient to improve the development of the March-to-August mid-crop. Producers noted that recent rains, combined with sunny intervals, were helping bean quality and pod formation, supporting expectations for harvesting activity through June and into July.

Conditions were less favorable in some western and central regions, where farmers indicated that additional rainfall will be needed throughout June to sustain crop development and avoid tighter supplies later in the season. Overall, the report suggests that current weather conditions remain supportive for the mid-crop, although rainfall patterns over the coming weeks will be critical for final production outcomes.

Ivory Coast Cocoa Mid-Crop Improves as Arrivals Rise 2.2%

Ivory Coast cocoa arrivals are up 2.2% year-on-year while recent rains support mid-crop quality, easing near-term supply concerns.

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Cocoa Weather

Cocoa Weather Forecast & Crop Impact Analysis Track cocoa weather conditions across Ivory Coast, Ghana, Brazil, and Indonesia, with crop-focused analysis of rainfall, temperature, drought risk, and market impact. West Africa cocoa weather analysis Ivory Coast Weather Forecast (Cocoa Belt) Ivory Coast is the largest cocoa producer globally, so rainfall, temperature,

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ICCO Revises 2024/25 Global Cocoa Balance

The International Cocoa Organization (ICCO) released revised estimates for the 2024/25 cocoa season, making several notable adjustments to its previous outlook. Global cocoa production was revised slightly lower to 4.723 million tonnes from 4.728 million tonnes, while world grindings were revised higher to 4.628 million tonnes from 4.606 million tonnes. As a result, the projected global surplus was reduced significantly from 75,000 tonnes to 48,000 tonnes.

The revisions also resulted in a lower estimate for end-of-season stocks, which were reduced to 1.320 million tonnes from 1.347 million tonnes. Consequently, the global stocks-to-grindings ratio declined to 28.5% from the previously projected 29.2%.

While the ICCO continues to forecast a return to surplus in 2024/25 following last season's 492,000-tonne deficit, the latest revisions indicate that the market balance is expected to be tighter than previously thought. The reduction in projected surplus, lower stock estimates and slightly lower production forecast are supportive relative to earlier expectations, although the overall outlook still points to improving global supply conditions compared with the previous season.

Origin Supply & Export Flows

Ivory Coast cocoa arrivals continued to run ahead of last season's pace, reaching 1.659 million tonnes as of 31 May, according to exporter estimates. Cumulative arrivals since the start of the 2025/26 marketing season on 1 October are now 2.2% above the corresponding period last year. Weekly deliveries totaled 22,000 tonnes, unchanged from the same week a year ago, indicating that the pace of arrivals remains steady as the mid-crop progresses.

Separately, Ecuador's cocoa sector continued to demonstrate strong export performance. The country's exports of cocoa and related products reached $135.2 million in April, according to industry association Anecacao. Cocoa bean exports totaled 32,175 tonnes, while processed and semi-processed cocoa product exports reached 5,870 tonnes.

Ivory Coast Cocoa Port Arrivals – Weekly Deliveries Tracker

Ivory Coast cocoa port arrivals represent the volume of cocoa beans delivered to the country’s main export ports during the marketing season. As the world’s largest cocoa producer, Ivory Coast typically accounts for around 40–45% of global cocoa supply, making port arrivals one of the most closely

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Industry & Corporate Developments

Barry Callebaut reaffirmed its outlook for the fiscal year, projecting mid-to-high single-digit growth in recurring EBIT in local currencies. The company also maintained guidance for free cash flow of CHF 300–400 million and reiterated its target net debt-to-EBITDA ratio of less than 2.0x, reflecting continued confidence in its financial position despite ongoing volatility across the cocoa sector.

Management expects a return to 1–3% volume growth over the next 12–18 months and continues to target a return on invested capital (ROIC) in the 11–13% range, supported by a stable or increasing dividend policy. While Barry Callebaut's outlook does not directly alter near-term cocoa supply fundamentals, the company's expectation for improving volumes suggests resilient downstream demand and provides a constructive signal for the broader cocoa processing and chocolate manufacturing industry.

Futures Performance

New York Cocoa (CC)

New York cocoa was largely unchanged following Friday's sharp selloff. The benchmark July 2026 contract closed at 3,899, just 2 points below the 29-May settlement of 3,901. Deferred contracts were similarly stable, with losses limited to 4-7 points through March 2027, although the May 2027 contract underperformed, declining 29 points.

London Cocoa (C)

London cocoa was broadly unchanged on 01-Jun. The benchmark July 2026 contract closed at 2,980, 2 points above the 29-May settlement, while most deferred contracts finished within 10 points of Friday's levels. Price action was considerably calmer than the previous session, reflecting a pause in selling pressure.

EFP, EFS and Spread Activity

New York Cocoa (CC)

Exchange for Physical (EFP) activity remained active at 810 lots, while Exchange for Swap (EFS) transactions totaled 68 lots. The most notable feature of the session was the exceptionally high level of calendar-spread trading, with spread volume reaching 37,181 lots, representing approximately 69% of total market volume.

Spread activity was concentrated in the Jul-26/Sep-26 and Sep-26/Dec-26 portions of the curve, indicating substantial contract rolling and forward-curve repositioning. The dominance of spread volume over outright volume suggests that market participants were primarily adjusting existing positions rather than establishing large new directional exposures.

London Cocoa (C)

London EFP activity totaled 273 lots, while no EFS transactions were reported. Spread volume reached 16,185 lots, accounting for approximately 67% of total market volume.

As in New York, the high proportion of spread trading indicates that trading interest remained focused on curve management and contract rolls. The relatively modest outright price changes combined with strong spread participation suggest an orderly market environment despite the recent volatility.

US–UK July Spread

$3,899 − (£2,980 x 1.346$/£) =$-112ton (down from $-107)

Volume and Open Interest

New York Cocoa (CC)

New York cocoa trading activity strengthened considerably on 01-Jun, with total volume rising to 53,788 lots from 46,096 lots on 29-May, marking the second-highest daily volume of the past week. Despite the increase in activity, prices remained relatively stable, suggesting that market participants were actively repositioning rather than aggressively liquidating positions. The most recent available open interest figure stood at 203,374 contracts on 29-May, near the highest level observed during the reporting period.

London Cocoa (C)

London cocoa volume moderated on 01-Jun, declining to 24,143 lots from 33,515 lots on 29-May. The reduction in turnover followed a period of elevated activity and suggests that trading participation eased as the market stabilized. Open interest reached 222,510 contracts on 29-May, the highest level reported during the recent period, indicating a continued build-up of market exposure prior to the latest session.

Exchange Trading Volume

These figures refer only to ICE Deliverable Stocks (Exchange-Visible)

Readers can explore detailed cocoa market datasets, futures statistics, and historical indicators in the CocoaIntel Data Hub:

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📊 Grindings 📦 Inventory / Certified Stocks 🚢 Import / Export Flows ⚖️ Stock-to-Grind Ratio 📈 Futures Contracts 🔄 Futures Curve & Spreads 🧠 COT / Positioning 🚚 Port Deliveries 🌧️ Weather Dashboard 🌀 Options & Volatility 📅 Seasonality 📑 Institutional Reports 🗓️ Cocoa Calendar This section is currently under active development. We are building a structured, transparent cocoa market data platform covering futures analytics, certified stocks, positioning

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Cocoa Market Outlook for Tuesday

Monday initially attempted a recovery from Friday's sharp decline, with cocoa futures rallying during the early part of the session and briefly trading above 4,070. However, buyers were unable to maintain momentum and prices gradually retreated throughout the day, leaving the Jul-26 contract to close near 3,900. The inability to hold the early gains indicates that selling pressure remains present on rallies and that market participants are still willing to use strength as an opportunity to reduce exposure or establish new short positions. While the market avoided another major selloff, Monday's price action cannot be viewed as outright bullish. Instead, it reflects a market that is attempting to stabilize but has not yet demonstrated sufficient buying conviction to reverse the recent downtrend. For Tuesday, continued consolidation remains the most likely outcome, although the failed recovery attempt suggests upside may remain limited unless fresh buying interest emerges and prices can regain the 4,000-4,050 area.

If you notice any discrepancies in these figures or have extra information, please email [email protected] or leave a comment – corrections and additional insights are always welcome.