Cocoa Surges to 3.5-Month Highs as El Niño Risks, Weak Crop Development and Ivory Coast Weather Concerns Tighten Supply Outlook (11 May 2026)
* Cocoa futures surged to three-and-a-half-month highs on 11 May * The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration estimates a 61% probability that El Niño conditions will develop between May and July * There is a 25% probability that El Niño could intensify into a particularly strong event * Early field surveys indicate below-average cherelle