Sugar Ends Mixed as Green Pool Widens Deficit Forecast (20 October 2026)
Sugar futures diverged on Tuesday. March raw sugar fell for a third session, settling at 20.52 cents/lb, while May and July gained. December white sugar edged up to $547.10/tonne, but March and May whites declined. The recovery was selective, with neither nearby market establishing a reversal.
| Contract | Settlement | Daily change | Change % | Session range |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw sugar Mar 2027 | 20.52¢/lb | −0.05¢ | −0.24% | 20.40–20.75 |
| Raw sugar May 2027 | 19.87¢/lb | +0.04¢ | +0.20% | 19.70–20.00 |
| Raw sugar Jul 2027 | 19.43¢/lb | +0.06¢ | +0.31% | 19.24–19.53 |
| White sugar Dec 2026 | $547.10/t | +$0.30 | +0.05% | $544.60–552.80 |
| White sugar Mar 2027 | $561.20/t | −$1.40 | −0.25% | $559.70–567.40 |
| White sugar May 2027 | $568.10/t | −$1.40 | −0.25% | $566.50–573.40 |
March raws traded below Monday’s 20.48-cent low before settling back above it. December whites also made a lower high and lower low, although their settlement recovered $2.50 from the session bottom.
| Market activity | Raw sugar | White sugar |
|---|---|---|
| Tuesday volume | 124,002 contracts | 26,981 contracts |
| Change from Monday | +18.04% | +7.94% |
| Latest open interest: 19 October | 1,206,428 | 168,789 |
| OI change from 16 October | +2,083 / +0.17% | +3,081 / +1.86% |
Turnover increased in both markets. Available open interest relates to Monday, when prices fell and outstanding positions expanded. That combination does not establish which trader categories sold or bought; Tuesday’s positioning cannot be inferred from these lagged figures.
| Settlement spread | Tuesday | Monday | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Mar–May 2027 | +0.65¢/lb | +0.74¢/lb | −0.09¢ |
| Raw Mar–Jul 2027 | +1.09¢/lb | +1.20¢/lb | −0.11¢ |
| White Dec 2026–Mar 2027 | −$14.10/t | −$15.80/t | +$1.70 |
| White Dec 2026–May 2027 | −$21.00/t | −$22.70/t | +$1.70 |
| Matched March white premium | $108.81/t | $109.11/t | −$0.30 |
| Matched May white premium | $130.04/t | $132.32/t | −$2.28 |
Raw backwardation weakened further as March underperformed May and July. December whites recovered relative to later deliveries, narrowing their discount, but the March–May white spread was unchanged at −$6.90/tonne. Matched white premiums softened, particularly in May. These relationships show an uneven adjustment across delivery periods rather than a broad repricing of immediate scarcity.
