Sugar Extends Decline as Nearby Spreads Weaken (21 October 2026)
Sugar futures fell on Wednesday, with March raws declining for a fourth consecutive session to 20.45 cents/lb. December whites lost 0.62% to $543.70/tonne and underperformed March and May deliveries. Both nearby contracts made lower highs and lower lows, extending the correction.
| Contract | Settlement | Daily change | Change % | Session range |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw sugar Mar 2027 | 20.45¢/lb | −0.07¢ | −0.34% | 20.27–20.74 |
| Raw sugar May 2027 | 19.82¢/lb | −0.05¢ | −0.25% | 19.65–20.06 |
| Raw sugar Jul 2027 | 19.39¢/lb | −0.04¢ | −0.21% | 19.24–19.60 |
| White sugar Dec 2026 | $543.70/t | −$3.40 | −0.62% | $541.10–552.20 |
| White sugar Mar 2027 | $559.30/t | −$1.90 | −0.34% | $556.60–566.50 |
| White sugar May 2027 | $566.00/t | −$2.10 | −0.37% | $563.00–573.00 |
March raws recovered 0.18 cents from their low, but their settlement remained below Tuesday’s 20.52 cents. December whites settled $2.60 above their low while finishing below Tuesday’s entire trading range. Neither recovery repaired the weaker daily price structure.
| Market activity | Raw sugar | White sugar |
|---|---|---|
| Wednesday volume | 133,149 contracts | 22,361 contracts |
| Change from Tuesday | +7.38% | −17.12% |
| Latest open interest: 20 October | 1,210,639 | 168,288 |
| OI change from 19 October | +4,211 / +0.35% | −501 / −0.30% |
Raw turnover increased as prices fell, while white turnover contracted. The latest open interest relates to Tuesday: raw positions expanded during a marginal decline in March, whereas white positions contracted as December edged higher. These figures cannot identify Wednesday’s flows or the trader categories responsible.
Over 13–20 October, raw open interest increased 2.67% and white open interest rose 4.66%. Tuesday’s small white contraction therefore occurred within a broader expansion in outstanding positions. Open-interest growth alone does not establish a larger speculative net long.
| Settlement spread | Wednesday | Tuesday | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Mar–May 2027 | +0.63¢/lb | +0.65¢/lb | −0.02¢ |
| Raw Mar–Jul 2027 | +1.06¢/lb | +1.09¢/lb | −0.03¢ |
| White Dec 2026–Mar 2027 | −$15.60/t | −$14.10/t | −$1.50 |
| White Dec 2026–May 2027 | −$22.30/t | −$21.00/t | −$1.30 |
| Matched March white premium | $108.45/t | $108.81/t | −$0.36 |
| Matched May white premium | $129.04/t | $130.04/t | −$1.00 |
Raw backwardation narrowed again, while December whites surrendered most of Tuesday’s improvement against later deliveries. Matched white premiums also declined. The combined signal is weaker nearby relative value across both markets, with limited confirmation of intensifying immediate scarcity.
