Cocoa Falls as High Stocks and Weak Demand Outweigh Crop Risks (9 November 2026)
Cocoa extended its decline on Monday, 9 November, with an early rebound giving way to sustained selling across both markets. New York December settled $151 lower (−2.93%) at $5,004/t after retreating from $5,227 to $4,978; its last trade at $5,000 left it just $22 above the session low. London December settled £131 lower (−3.35%) at £3,777/t, also near its low. Elevated exchange inventories and weak chocolate-demand growth continued to weigh against concerns over West African crop prospects, while forecasts of near-term rainfall offered some relief from immediate weather anxiety. Wider December–March settlement discounts in both markets reinforced the weakness in nearby pricing. The failure to sustain the opening recovery leaves buyers facing a clear test: holding $5,000 alone is insufficient without stronger follow-through and improving nearby spreads.
Monday’s price action suggests that ample exchange inventories and weak chocolate demand outweighed concerns over lower arrivals and future crop losses. Forecast rainfall also reduced the immediate urgency of weather-related buying. Technically, the failed opening rebound and subsequent break below Friday’s $5,072 low reinforced the bearish trend. The finish near $5,000 showed that buyers offered limited resistance to the decline.
