Cocoa Falls as Ivorian Rains Support Main-Crop Prospects (26 October 2026)
Cocoa began the week lower on Monday, 26 October, with New York leading the decline. December traded between $5,442 and $5,564/t before a late rebound lifted its last-traded close to $5,503, down $57 (−1.03%). The recovery returned prices to the session midpoint but left the contract below Friday’s low, preserving the pattern of lower highs and lower lows. London December traded between £4,116 and £4,192/t and last changed hands at £4,159, down £12 (−0.29%). Official settlements were $5,490 in New York (−1.82%) and £4,160 in London (−0.79%).
Our assessment is that useful rainfall in Côte d’Ivoire likely helped reduce support from weather concerns. Farmers reported improving conditions for developing pods and expected harvesting to accelerate from the following week, strengthening expectations of increased main-crop availability. Substantial cocoa holdings in U.S. exchange warehouses also provided a counterweight to stronger Q3 grindings and weak Ivorian port receipts, although only part of those warehouse stocks is certified for delivery. New York’s widening December discount to later maturities was consistent with limited pressure on prompt supply.
