Cocoa Recovery Falters as Inventories Temper Supply Concerns (23 October 2026)
Friday’s modest settlement gains masked another failed intraday recovery. New York December initially rose to $5,687/t before falling to $5,517, breaking Thursday’s low. An uneven recovery later reached approximately $5,650–$5,670, but renewed selling left the last trade at $5,560, down $47 from Thursday’s final trade. Official settlement was higher at $5,592, up $10 (+0.18%). London December also settled higher, gaining £17 (+0.41%) to £4,193/t, while its last trade slipped to £4,171. Both markets therefore recorded small settlement gains without sustaining their intraday recoveries.
Our assessment is that substantial U.S. warehouse inventories continued to limit the support from stronger grindings and West African weather concerns. The recent warehouse build provides a supply buffer, although total stored cocoa must be distinguished from the smaller exchange-certified pool. Stronger processing increases bean use, but weather risks still need to translate into tighter available supply to strengthen the immediate bullish case. Friday’s December–July discounts narrowed to $174/t in New York and £162/t in London, showing some nearby resilience while retaining substantial contango. The evidence points to a recovery struggling against existing availability, rather than a fresh deterioration in industrial demand.
