Arabica Breaks 270 as Stocks Rise and Brazil Exports Surge (11 November 2026)
Arabica extended its decline on Wednesday, with December settling below 270 cents/lb ahead of Thursday's options expiry. The contract fell 2.40 cents, or 0.88%, to 269.00 after trading between 266.90 and 271.95. March lost 1.25 cents, or 0.47%, to 264.65, recovering from a 262.15 low but remaining below Tuesday's settlement. December again underperformed the deferred contracts as its premium over March narrowed to 4.35 cents.
The decline coincided with a further easing of nearby supply pressure: certified Arabica stocks increased, the grading queue expanded again, and the December premium continued to contract during the roll. December broke both Tuesday's 270.80 low and September's 269.75 reference. Separately, Brazil's October export release confirmed record shipments, while Cooxupé warned of reduced productive potential for the 2027 crop in its operating region.
January Robusta fell just $5, or 0.15%, to $3,245/t. It traded down to $3,204, breaking the early-November $3,217–3,223 support area, before recovering to settle $41 above the low. That recovery preserved London's relative strength in outright prices, although the January–March premium narrowed for the first time this week.
| Contract | Settlement | Session low–high | Daily change | Change % |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arabica December 2026 | 269.00 cents/lb | 266.90–271.95 | −2.40 cents | −0.88% |
| Arabica March 2027 | 264.65 cents/lb | 262.15–267.40 | −1.25 cents | −0.47% |
| Arabica May 2027 | 260.45 cents/lb | 258.10–262.90 | −1.15 cents | −0.44% |
| Robusta January 2027 | $3,245/t | $3,204–3,258 | −$5 | −0.15% |
| Robusta March 2027 | $3,220/t | $3,182–3,235 | −$1 | −0.03% |
| Robusta May 2027 | $3,201/t | $3,167–3,219 | −$2 | −0.06% |
