Cocoa Reclaims $5,000 as Ivorian Crop Risks Resurface (11 November 2026)
Cocoa rebounded on Wednesday, 11 November, with March New York reclaiming $5,000 after four consecutive declining sessions. An early dip to $4,807 gave way to a sustained advance through the middle of the session, reaching $5,084 before a pullback briefly tested $4,995. Buyers recovered that level, and the contract last traded at $5,061, up $209 (+4.31%) and just $23 below its high. London March followed a similar pattern, recovering from £3,701 to £3,919 before finishing at a last trade of £3,879, up £110 (+2.92%). Official settlements rose to $5,046 (+3.59%) in New York and £3,892 (+3.37%) in London. Both contracts established higher highs and higher lows than Tuesday, although New York’s advance stopped $7 below Monday’s $5,091 low, leaving Tuesday’s downside gap partially open.
Wednesday’s rebound appears to have combined renewed concern over Ivorian supply with short covering after four consecutive declining sessions. Reuters highlighted SODEXAM’s warning of potential 21–25% production losses from El Niño and exporter reports of unexpectedly weak arrivals, increasing the risk of maintaining bearish positions after the sharp sell-off. March’s ability to hold above Tuesday’s $4,764 low and subsequently reclaim $5,000 likely encouraged further short exits and momentum buying. Turnover nevertheless declined on both exchanges, while December–March discounts widened, providing little evidence of an immediate shortage of deliverable cocoa. The recovery was consistent with traders reducing bearish exposure as crop risks regained attention, although the extent of short covering remains unconfirmed because Wednesday’s open-interest figures were not yet available.
