Arabica Falls as the Grading Queue Doubles and December Premium Narrows (10 November 2026)
Arabica extended its decline on Tuesday, with December falling 2.20 cents, or 0.80%, to 271.40 cents/lb. An early rise to 275.95 gave way to renewed selling, taking the contract to 270.80, its lowest intraday level since 23 September. Settlement was just 0.60 cent above the low. March also weakened, losing 1.35 cents, or 0.51%, to 265.90, while May fell 1.55 cents to 261.60.
The stronger dollar against the Brazilian real improved local-currency selling incentives, while the narrowing December premium and declining aggregate open interest were consistent with liquidation accompanying the expiry roll. Tuesday's stock return added to the prospect of replenishment: the grading queue more than doubled, even though certified inventories barely changed and no coffee passed grading that day. This combination keeps nearby availability and positioning central to the market's interpretation of the decline.
Robusta also surrendered an early advance. January opened at $3,275/t, reached $3,318 and then retreated to $3,241 before settling at $3,250, down $17 or 0.52%. Unlike Arabica's December–March spread, London's January–March premium held steady, preserving a degree of nearby resilience despite the weaker outright price.
| Contract | Settlement | Session low–high | Daily change | Change % |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arabica December 2026 | 271.40 cents/lb | 270.80–275.95 | −2.20 cents | −0.80% |
| Arabica March 2027 | 265.90 cents/lb | 265.30–269.00 | −1.35 cents | −0.51% |
| Arabica May 2027 | 261.60 cents/lb | 260.85–264.45 | −1.55 cents | −0.59% |
| Robusta January 2027 | $3,250/t | $3,241–3,318 | −$17 | −0.52% |
| Robusta March 2027 | $3,221/t | $3,215–3,285 | −$17 | −0.53% |
| Robusta May 2027 | $3,203/t | $3,195–3,265 | −$16 | −0.50% |
