Cocoa Holds Near $5,450 Amid Crop Risks and Uneven Demand (30 October 2026)
Cocoa finished Friday little changed after a sharp recovery from early weakness failed to develop into a sustained advance. New York December fell to $5,356/t, rebounded to $5,541, then faded to close at $5,454, down $5 (−0.09%). London December closed £9 lower (−0.22%) at £4,147/t. Both contracts made lower highs and lower lows but finished near the middle of their daily ranges, showing buying interest at weaker levels alongside continued difficulty sustaining rebounds.
Our assessment is that Friday’s trading reflected the tension between sizeable existing inventories and risks to forthcoming production. Rising stocks in U.S. exchange-monitored warehouses and weak pre-Halloween chocolate-sales readings tempered the demand outlook, while weather concerns and recent crop downgrades helped support the case against further sharp declines. That combination is consistent with the recovery from below $5,400 losing momentum near $5,540–$5,550. New York December’s widening discount to July also left the rebound without stronger confirmation from nearby relative pricing, keeping the session closer to stabilisation within the recent correction than an established recovery.
