Cocoa Finds Support as Ivorian Crop Forecasts Fall (29 October 2026)
Cocoa struggled to sustain an early rebound on Thursday. New York December climbed to $5,545/t before retreating to $5,388/t, then recovered late to close at $5,459/t, down just $3 (−0.05%). London December closed £22 lower (−0.53%) at £4,156/t. New York’s narrower range remained within Wednesday’s, indicating consolidation after the previous session’s sell-off. Buyers defended the area around $5,400, but the failure to retain the morning advance left the recovery incomplete and nearby resistance intact.
Our assessment is that Thursday’s uneven trading reflected technical stabilisation against conflicting fundamental signals. Lower Ivorian crop forecasts and excessive rainfall in Ecuador kept production risks in focus, while recent rain in Côte d’Ivoire and Ghana and substantial U.S. warehouse inventories tempered concerns about immediate availability. Hershey’s further confectionery-volume decline also showed that demand remained sensitive to higher prices, qualifying the stronger grinding results. Against that backdrop, New York’s rejection near $5,545 and subsequent recovery from around $5,400 suggest a market finding support after the sell-off, with insufficient conviction to sustain a broader rebound.
