Cocoa Rebound Fades as Range Trading Persists; StoneX Forecasts Renewed Deficit (28 October 2026)
Cocoa reversed Tuesday’s rebound on Wednesday. New York December rose to $5,614/t before falling sharply to $5,380, then recovered above $5,500 before fading to a last trade of $5,462/t, down $101 (−1.82%). The recovery from the low limited the loss but failed to restore Tuesday’s closing level. London December traded between £4,112 and £4,300/t and ended at £4,178/t, down £66 (−1.56%), surrendering most of its previous advance.
Our assessment is that cocoa remains in a broad consolidation, with $5,200–$6,300 defining its core trading band. Recent swings have remained responsive to support, resistance and moving averages, while fundamental developments have yet to produce a sustained breakout. Wednesday’s decline fits a renewed rotation towards the lower part of that band after Tuesday’s recovery failed to extend. Weather and inventory conditions remain important to the eventual direction of a breakout, but the latest price action provides clearer evidence of technical rejection than of a new fundamental deterioration.
