Cocoa Weighs Ivorian Crop Cuts Against Ample Stocks (4 November 2026)
Cocoa finished Wednesday unevenly after New York recovered sharply from a fresh low. December New York fell to $5,274 before rebounding to $5,472, then faded to a last-traded close of $5,427/t, up $7, or 0.13%. December London closed at £4,071/t, down £39, or 0.95%. New York’s recovery rejected prices below $5,300, but its failure to exceed Tuesday’s $5,481 high left the sequence of lower highs and lower lows intact.
Our assessment is that the reversal had a substantial technical component, with production risks providing fundamental support. The earlier selling was consistent with Barry Callebaut’s evidence of weakness in the wider chocolate market and its CEO’s assessment that existing stocks could cushion production losses. Once selling failed to sustain prices below $5,300, the recovery through intraday averages was consistent with technical buying and possible short-covering. Crop concerns supported buying at lower prices, while available inventories and subdued consumption remained obstacles to a sustained rally.
