Cocoa Stocks Outweigh Crop Risks (5 November 2026)
Cocoa fell sharply on Thursday, 5 November, as Wednesday’s New York recovery unravelled. December New York traded between $5,143 and $5,434 before finishing at a last-traded close of $5,177/t, down $250 (4.61%). The late rebound recovered only $34 from the low. December London closed at its session low of £3,877/t, down £194 (4.77%), leaving both markets under pressure despite continuing concerns about forthcoming crops.
Our assessment is that inventory and demand pressures were amplified by a technical breakdown. Rising exchange stocks and subdued chocolate-market growth reduced the urgency to secure nearby cocoa, limiting the support provided by weather-related production risks. Wednesday’s increase in U.S. warehouse stocks to 3.725 million bags was already being discussed during Thursday’s morning decline. Against that backdrop, New York’s break below Wednesday’s $5,274 low undermined the recovery and was consistent with further technical selling. Market-wide turnover increased 27.76%, while the late bounce attracted comparatively light volume. Together, these signals suggest that existing bearish fundamentals gained greater force once nearby support failed.
